coolhand's Account Talk

[coolhand]

The sellers have been trying to mount some downside action in recent trading, but it hasn't been nearly enough to offset the buyers. For the week, the S fund almost doubled the gains of the C fund, which is saying something given that the C fund was up near 2.5%.




Upside momentum is slowing on the S&P 500, but not as much on DWCPF. We can see that price is struggling with the falling 50 dma and has yet to push past that key average. Price on the S&P 500 has yet to tag its 50 dma and it's already slowing down.

The OEX is leaning bearish for Monday. TSP Talk saw a big jump in bullishness, which could bring some weakness (coupled with the OEX). NAAIM is leaning bullish as of late last week, so that would seem to indicate some degree of support of price in the short term.

My intermediate term system remains positive, but showing subtle signs of being toppy. Breadth and volume are still bullish, though stretched.

I remain bullish in the shorter and intermediate term, but bearish in the long term. The sellers may return on Monday, given the OEX and TSP Talk sentiment.

 

[coolhand]

We got the expected weakness for Monday. It wasn't particularly deep, which is consistent with sentiment.




We can see that price is falling off a bit, but I suspect it's a bull flag. Momentum has turned down.

The options are now neutral. Breadth remains positive as does my intermediate term system.

The selling was actually healthy if this market is to make up more of its past losses. There is resistance directly overhead, however, so we'll have to see how price reacts to it. So far, it's holding on the DWCPF.

I am neutral for Tuesday.

 

[coolhand]

It didn't take long for the bulls to push prices higher.




Price on the S&P 500 made a sizeable move toward its 50 dma. A test should be coming this week. The DWCPF saw price bounce back, but did not break resistance. I am looking for a upside break soon.

Breadth turned back up and remains positive. Volume favors the bulls.

The OEX is bullish for Wednesday, while the CBOE is neutral.

I am looking for more upside Wednesday. The trend is up, but resistance needs to be broken to get another leg higher in motion.

 

[coolhand]

The upside bias continued today (no surprise).




While the DWCPF has a small upside breakout, the S&P 500 is only now testing its 50 dma. An upside breakout on this chart is probably more significant than the DWCPF since it's a chart that is widely followed. I'd prefer to see a decisive breakout, however, and not small incremental ones, but that may be what we get anyway; assuming the upside bias continues.

Nothing has changed with my indicators. The OEX is neutral to modestly bullish, while the CBOE is neutral. NAAIM reports tomorrow. I remain bullish for now.

 

[coolhand]

The bullish bias continued today as the indicators suggested.




Price broke to the upside on the S&P 500, though not by a lot. However, the DWCPF pulled further away from its initial break, which certainly give us a bullish context. The 200 dma is the next target.

The options are bearish this evening, which suggests some measure of weakness on Friday. TRINQ suggests weakness too. NAAIM came in more bullish, so that mitigates downside risk for the next few days. That means we may see some selling, but it likely won't be meaningful in terms of the market trend (up).

All of my other indicators remain bullish. I remain bullish.

 

[coolhand]

Last week, stocks roared. Our TSP stock funds had weekly gains of almost 3% for the C and S funds, while the I fund was up a bit over 1%.




Price has clawed back significant gains since the bottom almost a month ago. After easily clearing the 50 dma on both charts, price seems to have its sights on the 200 dma. Momentum is positive. Breadth and volume are positive.

The OEX is neutral. The CBOE is bearish. TSP Talk sentiment is bearish. NAAIM is moderately bullish.

The market is due more selling than it's seen, but the trend is clearly up right now and the indicators are still pointing in that direction. I remain bullish for the new week.

 

[coolhand]

The market finally had a pullback, which was needed.




No real technical damage was done. Price may test the 50 dma just below. I am looking for a successful test if we get one.

The OEX is a bit bearish this evening, but nothing dramatic. The CBOE is neutral. TRIN and TRINQ are modestly bullish. Breadth turned down, but remains positive.

I believe this pullback is temporary and it was due. The trend remains up and I see no reason after a 1-day pullback to change that perspective. The indicators are mixed this evening. I am neutral for Wednesday.

 

[coolhand]

The market had a mixed trading day Thursday.




Price is dancing around just above the 50 dma on both charts. I am still expecting price to make a run at the 200 dma sooner or later.

The options are neutral this evening. NAAIM did not change much from last week and remains modestly bullish.

Most other indicators appear to be holding steady in bullish configurations. The uptrend looks to be intact to this point.

 

[coolhand]

The current rally slowed down last week as weekly price changes were mixed for the 3 TSP stock funds. The C fund was down modestly for the week, while the S and I funds were up.




It was almost a losing week until Friday's rally saw upside gaps on both charts and solid gains by the close. So far, the 50 dma is holding very well and the 200 dma remains in sight.

The OEX is neutral for Monday, while the CBOE is bearish. NAAIM is neutral to modestly bullish overall. Interestingly, the TSP Talk sentiment survey came in at an even split.

Breadth remains bullish, as does upside volume. I am neutral for Monday, but bullish for the intermediate term (week).

 

[coolhand]

The bears returned on Monday as price was pressured once again, but losses were contained and well within reason for a market that has rallied as much as this one has over the past few weeks. It would seem a trading range is being defined, but I expect that range to break to the upside given the trend remains up.




No significant changes can be seen on the charts.

The OEX is neutral this evening, while the CBOE is modestly bullish. My intermediate term system remains positive as does breadth.

The bias remains higher.

 

[coolhand]

The back and forth action continued today as the bears tried to take price lower, but the bulls would step in to counter the weakness.




I have no strong short-term conviction on price movement right now, but the sideways action should break to the upside given the trend.

TRINQ is bullish for Wednesday. The OEX and CBOE are neutral. My intermediate term system remains positive.

I suspect we'll see some degree of upside on Wednesday, but the bears may try to counter again. It could be another day similar to today.

 

[coolhand]

Yesterday, I said I was leaning bullish, but was not sure if the bears would try to counter the move. They tried, but not very effectively. I also said that I was anticipating an upside breakout given that was still the trend.




We can see that price did breakout on both charts today. Breadth was very positive as was volume. The move may have legs, but we'll give it a bit more time to play out.

The OEX is bearish this evening, while the CBOE is neutral. I suspect the market may give something back on Thursday, but I am not looking for any serious downside.

 

[coolhand]

I was looking for some degree of weakness of Thursday, but didn't think we'd see anything serious. We didn't. In fact, it was mostly an "up" day. Not surprising with breadth almost vertical to the upside.




Price is getting closer to testing those 200 dma's. Maybe next week?

This evening, the options are bearish overall. However, NAAIM came in relatively unchanged and that's bullish beyond a day or two. Breadth is very bullish as is the A/D line.

I remain bullish overall, but the options suggest weakness on Friday. If we don't get weakness, we may get chop instead as the market digests recent gains. Of course, we could rally some more too, but I don't favor that possibility. For our purposes in TSP, I'd look beyond Friday and remain focused on staying the course in stocks.

 

[coolhand]

The upward bias continued last week.




We can see that the 200 dma remains untested, but I am looking for a test over the days ahead. Momentum remains positive as does breadth.

The OEX is bearish for Monday, while the CBOE is neutral. NAAIM remains on the bullish side. TSP Talk got bulled up last week. Overall, I am looking for price to continue to chop higher over the course of this week.

 

[coolhand]

Monday picked up where last week left off as price continued to march higher.




Price is not far from testing the 200 dma on the S&P 500. Price on the DWCPF isn't much further away either. This will be an area where price may encounter resistance, so we'll have to see how price reacts to this key average. Momentum remains bullish.

The options are now neutral. Breadth remains quite positive. I remain bullish.

 

[sniper]

When I read your posts, I always imagine it being said in the Neo voice

 

[pmaloney]

It's not the spoon that is bending. :smile:

 

[coolhand]

Tag, the 200 dma is hit on the S&P 500. DWCPF next?




Price isn't acting as though it's tired, but now that the 200 dma is being tested we'll soon see how much strength is left in this rally.

Momentum remains positive. Breadth is very bullish. The options are modestly bearish. Since breadth and momentum are in the bull's favor, I'd not bet on too much downside as yet. In fact, the SOTU may extend the rally. Of course, some might argue we may top right here based on the SOTU. I'm not in that camp.

In any event, it's speculation on my part. I remain bullish simply based on the indicators.

 

[wahinepio]

2741.77 (200)
SOTU another plea for unity. but that wall is impossible to penetrate.

 

[coolhand]

The market had a modest pullback on Wednesday, but no technical damage was done. That is not a surprise given some of the technical indicators. Momentum and breadth can be difficult to turn (like a train once it gets going).




What's a bit interesting is that this weakness, modest as it was, occurred just under the 200 dma on S&P 500. I do not think it's a precursor of a reversal; at least not yet. I am looking for an upside break of that key average before the market might see any significant selling pressure. It's certainly due given how much ground has been retaken by the bulls.

This evening, the OEX is bearish and the CBOE is neutral. Breadth dipped, but remains solidly bullish. NAAIM reports on Thursday.

I remain bullish, but watchful for a potential change.