coolhand's Account Talk

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Well, it sure was an interesting trading day, wasn't it? A hard downside reversal off the massive rally the previous day and then it gets reversed again in the final 90 minutes or so to close in the green. Another statement of who has control? One side wants to take it down and the other says 2 can play at this game. Good luck trading this volatility.

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So the market managed to push a bit higher after all. Still, a ton of damage was done previously and it would take a whole lot more upside to reclaim those losses. But the bulls have a problem. NAAIM came in pretty darn bearish, which is normally bullish for a few days (expect in this market I would not bet heavily on that). Still, this reversal suggests more upside may indeed manifest. Futures are down right now, so we'll see what happens Friday.

The options have not posted (again). Breadth remains quite negative, but is rising. That indicator along with my Advance/Decline indicators, while rising, are still well away from being positive. But if this is a bear market rally in progress we just might see several more percentage points of upside before a peak. I just don't like that bearish NAAIM reading.

I remain neutral (really, who can tell where this thing is going?). The trend does remain down.
 
All 3 TSP stock funds tacked on some nice gains last week. But it was a very volatile week and difficult to trade (even for more nimble traders). It appears we have a low in place, but are we forming a bear flag?

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We can see that price is still well away from its 50 dma, but momentum has turned up so upside movement may continue in the short term. RSI is no longer oversold. My intermediate term system remains negative, though it in the process of improving. Breadth and volume are improving, but remain negative.

The OEX is neutral and the CBOE is bearish for Monday. NAAIM got beared up last week, which is a caution flag beyond the short term (which is near expired). TSP Talk came in at an even split, which is neutral.

So, we may have a bear market rally in progress. Assuming such, the market is nowhere near out of the woods. How much actual upside can be achieved in the current market context is debatable, but I think that the bears still have the advantage beyond the short term. My longer term perspective remains bearish, but this decline appears to be controlled to some extent and there seems to be a force that is trying to keep it from falling apart too quickly. I think we should continue to anticipate that rallies will be sold.
 
Monday's action remained volatile as the market closed out 2018. All 3 TSP stock funds were lower on the year. The F fund was barely higher. The winner was the G fund, which is where I remained for most of the year.

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We can see that the bounce continued Monday. Momentum is still rising. I note that upside volume is very heavy in current trading. Breadth continued its rise and is getting near to a neutral level.

The OEX is neutral. The CBOE is modestly bearish. It's going to be interesting to see how NAAIM positions itself come Thursday. They were beared up last week.

Futures are moderately higher this evening, which suggests the bulls are still control. We may have several percentage points of upside left the way the indicators are turning up.
 
CH,
You were smart to stay in the G most of the time. I almost moved all remaining equity allocation to the G after the last Trump /Xi meeting but I didn’t. Oh well, you can’t change the past. Hopefully we will see a better start to 2019. Thanks always for your daily analysis. It’s much appreciated. Happy New Year
 
The first trading day of the new year began with significant selling pressure, but it didn't hold as the majors largely traded back to near neutral, give or take. That's actually good news for the bulls as it shows that those who want this market to hold together are pulling strings to make it happen. That doesn't mean we can get complacent (if true), but I think we can now give the nod to the bulls beyond the short term.

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Futures fell hard again this evening, so the bears haven't gone away by any means. We'll have to see if their selling is met with any buying pressure either later in the day on Thursday or perhaps Friday. One thing is for sure; the volatility remains challenging in both directions.

The options are neutral this evening. Breadth is still rising. My intermediate term system is on the mend, though it remains negative.

I have to lean on futures as my main tell this evening and suspect that we will see more selling on Thursday. NAAIM reports late in the morning. I am watching the bulls to see how well they continue to counter the selling pressure.
 
The bears clawed back on Thursday, which was not unexpected. But the decline was due and not out of the ordinary. We might even have a bull flag forming.

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The OEX is modestly bearish this evening, while the CBOE is neutral. NAAIM came in more bullish. That is consistent with my expectation that a low is in for now and that the trend will likely remain to the upside.

My intermediate term system flipped to a positive condition despite the selling today. Breadth is still negative, but is still trending upward.

I am looking higher for Friday.
 
While I was looking higher for Friday, I had no way of knowing how big the move would prove to be. It was huge.

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If you weren't sure whether the bulls were in control before, you might be after Friday's shot. Momentum turned back up. I suspect we'll be seeing a test of the 50 dma perhaps next week.

The options are bearish for Monday. TSP Talk came in beared up, which is bullish. NAAIM is leaning bullish. Sentiment suggests the market continues to trend back to the upside.

Breadth and upside volume are looking bullish. TRIN and TRINQ suggest weakness on Monday. My intermediate term system is positive.

I'm looking for a pullback on Monday, but the trend is up in the intermediate term.
 
Thanks for your efforts for sure. You deserve pats on the back for your daily (or almost) recaps and analysis! They are much appreciated!
 
The weakness I was anticipating on Monday never really manifested; though price did dip in afternoon trade (probably profit taking). The action is consistent with an intermediate term uptrend the remains in progress. I continue to look for a test of the 50 dma on both charts.

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The indicators remain bullish. Sentiment favors the bulls. The options are leaning bullish for Tuesday.

I am looking for a continued upside bias.
 
The anticipated upward bias continued today.

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We can see that price is approaching the 50 dma's on both charts. I really think they get tested at some point.

Breadth and volume remains bullish as does my intermediate term system.

The options are neutral this evening. While the market is due a pullback, I see no reason not to expect the upward bias to continue.
 
I'm not posting charts this evening since nothing much has changed. Price continued rising as the indicators suggested. I note that price on the DWCPF is very close to testing its 50 dma, but is still further away on the S&P 500. My intermediate term system is stretched, but still positive.

The OEX is very bearish this evening, which suggests a pullback is in the cards. NAAIM reports in the morning.
 
[I'm not posting charts this evening since nothing much has changed. Price continued rising as the indicators suggested. I note that price on the DWCPF is very close to testing its 50 dma, but is still further away on the S&P 500. My intermediate term system is stretched, but still positive.

The OEX is very bearish this evening, which suggests a pullback is in the cards. NAAIM reports in the morning.


Coolhand, saw a market video this eve posted by nnut...wow, could not believe how bearish it was for long term (i think you are also, no?)...very constructive but the guy was so positive that bear market will occur/was here...showed stats on bear market occurs every 3,5 years on average and they last approx. 18 months (this was since 1930 as great depression was an outlyer)...keep up the good work and yer analysis is appreciated by everyone..oh yeh, will you wait the avg 18 mos to turn positive long term again? EJJ
 
shitepoke said:
[I'm not posting charts this evening since nothing much has changed. Price continued rising as the indicators suggested. I note that price on the DWCPF is very close to testing its 50 dma, but is still further away on the S&P 500. My intermediate term system is stretched, but still positive.

The OEX is very bearish this evening, which suggests a pullback is in the cards. NAAIM reports in the morning.


Coolhand, saw a market video this eve posted by nnut...wow, could not believe how bearish it was for long term (i think you are also, no?)...very constructive but the guy was so positive that bear market will occur/was here...showed stats on bear market occurs every 3,5 years on average and they last approx. 18 months (this was since 1930 as great depression was an outlyer)...keep up the good work and yer analysis is appreciated by everyone..oh yeh, will you wait the avg 18 mos to turn positive long term again? EJJ
Click to expand...

I remain longer term bearish. This is not a normal market. Listen to the X22 report for better clarity.
 
We got the weakness that was projected by the OEX on Thursday, but it didn't last the day. That is more confirmation that the bulls have control.

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Having said that, the 50 dma is now in the process of the being tested on the DWCPF (the S&P is not there yet). My expectation is that price will break the 50 dma to the upside. The reason is that breadth and volume continue to favor the bulls.

The OEX remains on the bearish side this evening. The CBOE is on the neutral side. NAAIM came in a bit more bullish. They are not overly bullish, but that's okay. We can take the current reading and assume that risk remains to the upside.

So, I am anticipating more of the same in the days ahead. Bias remains to the upside for now.
 
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