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coolhand's Account Talk
- Thread starter coolhand
- Start date
coolhand
Well-known member
So, the 200 dma is presenting resistance to price as the market sold off today. The bulls will point out that the market closed well off the lows, which is true.
Technical damage is still contained, but momentum and breadth did turn down (not bearish as yet). But we have some interesting sentiment to ponder. The options are leaning bearish for Friday. Interestingly, NAAIM got more bullish and does not seem to be concerned about the downside. That tells me that while we can certainly get more short-term weakness, price is likely to rebound and challenge the 200 dma once more; likely breaking it for a day or two. If that happens, the market could reveal a bull trap and we'd see price head back down again for larger losses. That's just a scenario. It's at least as likely that price continues higher after a break of the 200 dma. I would follow NAAIM and give the nod to the bulls under these conditions.
Technical damage is still contained, but momentum and breadth did turn down (not bearish as yet). But we have some interesting sentiment to ponder. The options are leaning bearish for Friday. Interestingly, NAAIM got more bullish and does not seem to be concerned about the downside. That tells me that while we can certainly get more short-term weakness, price is likely to rebound and challenge the 200 dma once more; likely breaking it for a day or two. If that happens, the market could reveal a bull trap and we'd see price head back down again for larger losses. That's just a scenario. It's at least as likely that price continues higher after a break of the 200 dma. I would follow NAAIM and give the nod to the bulls under these conditions.
coolhand
Well-known member
So, the market is running into resistance at the S&P 500 200 dma. For the week, the C and S funds eked out modest gains, but the I fund fell hard.
The market did manage to close for a gain on Friday, but perhaps more importantly it reversed losses to do it. So the bulls are fighting back. But momentum has turned down and breadth has as well and resistance is holding to this point.
The options are neutral for Monday. TSP Talk got more bullish, which is bearish, but NAAIM is also bullish and that's smart money. The upward trend has not been broken, but the 200 dma does need to be broken. I continue to look for an upside break, but even if we get it, we could see another attempt to take the market back down. So, things could get interesting in the days ahead. I'm bullish for now, but could flip as the market reveals its intent.
The market did manage to close for a gain on Friday, but perhaps more importantly it reversed losses to do it. So the bulls are fighting back. But momentum has turned down and breadth has as well and resistance is holding to this point.
The options are neutral for Monday. TSP Talk got more bullish, which is bearish, but NAAIM is also bullish and that's smart money. The upward trend has not been broken, but the 200 dma does need to be broken. I continue to look for an upside break, but even if we get it, we could see another attempt to take the market back down. So, things could get interesting in the days ahead. I'm bullish for now, but could flip as the market reveals its intent.
coolhand
Well-known member
So, I've been favoring an upside break of the S&P 500 200 dma and price is once more knocking on that door. Today's rally certainly felt bullish. I think a break is coming soon.
Price on the DWCPF is also near its respective 200 dma. Momentum has turned back up as has breadth.
The OEX is neutral as is the CBOE. Remember, NAAIM was bullish last week, so the turn higher is not a surprise. The question is, will the 200 dma be broken? As I said above, I think it will. But will it hold? We're probably going to find out soon. I favor the bulls.
Price on the DWCPF is also near its respective 200 dma. Momentum has turned back up as has breadth.
The OEX is neutral as is the CBOE. Remember, NAAIM was bullish last week, so the turn higher is not a surprise. The question is, will the 200 dma be broken? As I said above, I think it will. But will it hold? We're probably going to find out soon. I favor the bulls.
1965Vintage
Member
This market is making me sick. I got out too early in January and made 2%. Been waiting for a pull back ever since!
Haven't used any IFT's in February yet.
I don't want to fall into FOMO and jump in here but I may.
I missed all of the drop at the end of 2018 and was happy about that, but sure have messed up on this unbelievable rise!
It just won't stop!
Sent from my XT1585 using TSP Talk Forums mobile app
This is the kind of BS that rattles things imo
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/14/mar...ely-push-fed-to-raise-rates-james-bianco.html
That and other media crap from Cramer.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/14/mar...ely-push-fed-to-raise-rates-james-bianco.html
That and other media crap from Cramer.
Added the title. The article was posted right about 0903. Right after that we went red.
userque
Well-known member
We went red due to Retail numbers.
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/14/stock-market.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/02/14/stock-market.html
Just saw that. That's the difference of using finviz news vice cnbc. The retail news didn't hit finviz till 0914. Then again at 0930. Now to decide if I bail with a small loss or wait it out to see if support holds again or not. grrrrrrrrrrr
coolhand
Well-known member
The battle at the 200 dma continued on Thursday.
Can the bulls push price over the top? My expectation is that they will; even if only temporarily.
This evening, the options are neutral. NAAIM was relatively unchanged, which supports the bulls. TRINQ is bearish. Breadth is bullish.
I think the battle will probably continue on Friday, but eventually I expect price to resolve higher before a possible reversal.
Can the bulls push price over the top? My expectation is that they will; even if only temporarily.
This evening, the options are neutral. NAAIM was relatively unchanged, which supports the bulls. TRINQ is bearish. Breadth is bullish.
I think the battle will probably continue on Friday, but eventually I expect price to resolve higher before a possible reversal.
coolhand
Well-known member
I got the upside breakout I was looking for on Friday. Price has now closed about the 200 dma on both charts. I said that we might see a reversal soon after the break, but the operative word is "might".
Looking at the charts, we see a largely continuous rally since shortly after Christmas, with modest dips along the way. Momentum is positive, but weakening (that's not necessarily bearish). RSI is about overbought, but that's not necessarily bearish either; only a potential warning. Breadth is quite bullish and that a huge plus in the bull's favor. NAAIM is bullish (smart money). The options are neutral. TSP Talk is neutral (we're bullish overall).
I have no reason to expect any serious selling pressure given the current technical or sentiment picture. For now, I am remaining bullish.
Looking at the charts, we see a largely continuous rally since shortly after Christmas, with modest dips along the way. Momentum is positive, but weakening (that's not necessarily bearish). RSI is about overbought, but that's not necessarily bearish either; only a potential warning. Breadth is quite bullish and that a huge plus in the bull's favor. NAAIM is bullish (smart money). The options are neutral. TSP Talk is neutral (we're bullish overall).
I have no reason to expect any serious selling pressure given the current technical or sentiment picture. For now, I am remaining bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
The market dished out moderate losses today, but it did nothing to alter its bullish disposition.
We can see that price did not test the 200dma. It isn't far from it, so maybe we'll get a test soon.
The options are neutral this evening. NAAIM came in a bit less bullish, but not nearly enough to take it out of its overall bullish stance. My intermediate term system remains positive. Breadth remains very positive.
Really, the bulls continue to own the market right now. We're overbought and the charts and indicators are extended, but I would not bet against the bulls while NAAIM remains solidly bullish.
We can see that price did not test the 200dma. It isn't far from it, so maybe we'll get a test soon.
The options are neutral this evening. NAAIM came in a bit less bullish, but not nearly enough to take it out of its overall bullish stance. My intermediate term system remains positive. Breadth remains very positive.
Really, the bulls continue to own the market right now. We're overbought and the charts and indicators are extended, but I would not bet against the bulls while NAAIM remains solidly bullish.
coolhand
Well-known member
So, price has now been above (and rising) the 200 dma on both charts for several days. That key average may now be support (should it get tested). But more importantly, we are seeing more evidence that this bull is still very much alive.
The charts remain bullish, albeit extended. But that's not too much of problem given it was extended to the downside about 2 months ago. Still, RSI is overbought (for what that's worth).
The options are neutral for Monday. NAAIM remains bullish. TSP Talk is decidedly bullish, which used to be bearish a long time ago so I don't key on it as much as I once did. NAAIM is my primary sentiment indicator these days.
Breadth remains very bullish and still rising.
So, my perspective remains bullish. In fact, I am not seeing any reason to fear a bear market like I did prior to this rally. We got a minor bear market late last year and the bulls stomped it after just a few months.
The charts remain bullish, albeit extended. But that's not too much of problem given it was extended to the downside about 2 months ago. Still, RSI is overbought (for what that's worth).
The options are neutral for Monday. NAAIM remains bullish. TSP Talk is decidedly bullish, which used to be bearish a long time ago so I don't key on it as much as I once did. NAAIM is my primary sentiment indicator these days.
Breadth remains very bullish and still rising.
So, my perspective remains bullish. In fact, I am not seeing any reason to fear a bear market like I did prior to this rally. We got a minor bear market late last year and the bulls stomped it after just a few months.
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