Bull Pen - Fall 2006

"The bottom line: None of the top five newsletters for market timing performance over the last decade is any less bullish today than two months ago".

http://www.marketwatch.com Mark Hulbert - Still Bullish - Top market timers staying strong on stocks.
 
From the TWSJ editorial page on 4/27 - I don't know the author.

"The stock market is hardly a perfect predictor of the future (and neither is Ferdinand), and the recent upward trend could reverse itself at any time. But the market is, as the old adage goes, a mechanism for discounting the future, while statistics like Friday's GDP estimate are calculations about the past. So if we had to choose between the two conflicting signals, we'd put our money on the collective sense of the market, which these days is saying that the economy is stronger than the conventional wisdom would have you think. The good news is that the housing slump shows no signs of tanking the larger economy. (sorry Mr. Missouri) Unemployment remains low, at 4.4%, and wages are rising amid an overall very tight labor market, especially for skilled workers. This wage growth in turn is helping consumer spending, which continues to increase despite rising gas prices. Hidden beneath Friday's disappointing headline growth number of 1.3% was 3.8% growth in consumer spending on an annual basis. That's none too shabby, given that home-equity extraction has dropped precipitously with rising interest rates and falling home prices.

There's still too much underlying strength in the economy to call this stagflation: (sorry again Mr. Missouri), it looks more like growthflation. The Fed has been betting that slower growth would bring inflation down, thus vindicating its decision to stop raising interest rates last year. But we all learned in the 1970s, or should have, that inflation can coexist with slower growth.

The stock market closed basically flat on Friday, suggesting that the headline GDP weakness didn't spook anyone much. The Dow's march into record territory this week signals that investors believe that the economy will emerge from this inflationary period intact." Believe it or not. Snort.
 
Anybody seen my breakaway gap? Maybe you'll see it tomorrow. Panic buying is getting ready to kick into a higher gear.
 
More of a big picture perspective

Look the DJIA is up what 23 of 28 days? It looks extended but where are you going to put your money? What they get 1% in Japan and the 10yr bund is 4.2% even with forward PE's of 18 to 20% stocks are still undervalued compared to the 10yr US bond (In the US equities are something like 27% undervalued to bonds). Looking at geopolitical risk it is perceived by people as like a 1 or 2 day correction. The asia investors have no other options to invest in but equities especially with the excess liquidity. Even with another 10% correction in China it still has still gone up 200%. Look at the liquidity out there. Private equity funds aren't going to put their money in cash. So follow the private equity fund trail for the full investment cycle when they are fully invested get out - the debt that will be acummulated by their purchases will not be sustainable so get out after the frenzy is over. It could take 2 to 3 years for that to occur. Local lending at Japanese banks is thru the roof - where do you think they put their money? Watch the BOJ and PBOC (china) to get an overview on asia.

In the US Goldman Sachs is upping their targets. The consumer has stayed in the game for the 1st quarter even with housing taking 1% of gdp. Current demand is for equities but we will go thru a blowoff phase like what was triggered by China in Feb.

The bottom line is that after 2000 stockdrop, hard assets (housing, etc.) took the money and now with the housing bottoming out financial assets are king again. Logically where are people going to put their money - even with a few corrections tossed in.

white
 
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Yep, I agree. Makes a whole lot of sense to borrow money to invest in equities when interest rates are still very low. :)
 
From TWSJ 5/8/07.
"The most important engine remains the stock market, which continues to hit all-time highs. Higher stock prices give chirf executives the confidence - and currency - to pursue bigger targets. The value of mergers in 2007 has already topped $2 trillion, higher than the level for all of 2004. and some 60% greater than the same period of 2006. U.S. volume is up 41% year over year, according to data provider Dealogic. Deal prices are at their highest level since 2000. On average, buyers are spending about 12.1 times a target's cash flow this year, compared to 10.4 times during 2006, and 9.7 times 2000."
 
I must admit that I always average down. I probably hit 70% of those moves. Every now and then we slide toward the cliff - and become a tax loss carry forward. You can't do that in real estate. Thanx for the read.
 
"In the next four years, well before the 2012 presidential election, it would not surprise many professionals, including this one, to see the famed market gauge advance as much as 60% higher to 21,000".

The article is at moneycentral.msn but I can't get the site up correctly - sorry.

The author is Jon Markman
 
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Yes Hobie that was it - just wouldn't work for me to link it.

"SXlothower calculates that this means that up to 2.3 trillion in China monies... can now move out of China. If even a modest fraction of the 2.3 trillion makes its way into U.S. stocks, we could see further parabolic advance in equities".

http://www.marketwatch.com Mark Hulbert...Is the best yet to come from China?
 
15 Reasons Why Stocks Are Falling

Posted on May 12th, 2007
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Barry Ritholtz submits: Thursday morning, Doug Kass gave us his short list of why stocks ought to take a stumble:
1. The price of gasoline rises to a new high, serving as the functional equivalent of a tax increase for the U.S. consumer.
2. Tech bellwether Cisco's (CSCO) U.S. business enterprise is weak, and guidance for aggregate sequential revenue growth (of +4%) is disappointing.
3. Other tech companies like Novellus (NVLS), Nokia (NOK), SanDisk (SNDK), Flextronics (FLEX) and Sanmina (SANM) disappointed. The much-heralded release of Vista has failed to meet expectations (and has led to a buildup in PC component parts). DRAM prices fall by nearly 70% to below cash production costs. Electronic Arts (ERTS) , Best Buy (BBY) and Circuit City (CC) guided lower, raising questions about the health of consumer electronics.
4. Multinationals offset end-market weakness in the U.S. by the effect of a weak U.S. dollar. More astonishingly, investors consider the foreign exchange gains as recurring.
5. The multiplier effect of the housing downturn hits many building materials companies like Mohawk Industries (MHK) , Home Depot (HD) and Graco (GGG) whiff, but rumors of private-equity deals bail investors out.
6. The U.S. dollar trends lower and lower, and the likelihood of rising interest rates in Europe and in Asia suggests interest rate differentials will widen further (putting further pressure on our currency).
7. Wal-Mart (WMT) , Target (TGT) , Talbots (TLB) , Sears (SHLD) and others lower comp guidance as evidence of consumer weakness grows.
8. The plethora of mortgage resets -- the single most important factor pressing the U.S. consumer -- is dismissed.
9. The sublime mess is dismissed, despite growing evidence that the credit contagion is spreading to motorcycle securitizations, automobiles and elsewhere.
10. REITs trade above intrinsic value, and dividend yields are at all-time lows relative to another new paradigm.
11. Trucking and airline companies' results are worse than expected, and forward guidance is reduced.
12. Banks' net interest margins are threatened by competition (and industry saturation) and an unfavorable yield curve as credit losses rise.
13. Leading indicators fall for three consecutive months, and the household and payroll survey of jobs throws more caution to the wind.
14. The popularity of the Republican administration hits new lows as the probability of a Democratic 2008 win increases, raising the specter of the politics of trade protectionism, a more powerful view toward antitrust and higher dividend and corporate tax rates.
15. Over there, speculation continues apace in emerging markets (especially of an Asian-kind). China becomes the epicenter of the world's speculation in equities.
Of course, all these reasons existed yesterday, and will exist tomorrow.
My thesis is that each FOMC meeting is greeted by a sideways action prior to the FOMC announcement, followed by a rally, followed by a sell off. This FOMC meeting followed the script pretty perfectly.

Source:

15 Reasons Stocks Should Be Falling
Doug Kass
Street Insight, 5/10/2007 2:56 PM EDT
http://www.thestreet.com/markets/activetraderupdate/10356178.html
 
Doug Kass will also eventually throw in the towel - he's now been wrong for four years. Sooner or later - they all come home. Then the locals start getting out.
 
Doug Kass will also eventually throw in the towel - he's now been wrong for four years. Sooner or later - they all come home. Then the locals start getting out.

Doug has done pretty well for his investors. I am privvy to his quarterly investor letters, but only by dint of agreeing not to share the specifics.
A few things to remember: Doug is rarely all in short; Second, the gains on specific stock shorts outweigh the upward bias fo the overall market.
Lastly, his clients come to him as a short fund to be a hedge against their other holdings. They WANT him to be mostly short -- especially as the market goes higher.

white :cheesy:
 
From TWSJ 5/19 by Justin Lahart - Investors Keep Idle Money On the Move

"A wave of cash is looking for a home in the stock market. With Bausch & Lomb's announcement yesterday that it had agreed to be taken private, there are now 12 companies in the S&P 500 index set to go private this year. The total price tag for these companies stands at $179 billion, according to S&P analyst Howard Silverblatt. That's a lot of cash - enough to buy Google out-right and still have enough left over to take over FedEx - investors will have to redeploy. This is a lot of money that will have to find a home.

S&P 500 index funds will pump the money right back into stocks in the index, as will many of the actively managed mutual funds that use the index as a benchmark. First and foremost, they'll need to buy the shares of the companies replacing the outgoing members of the index. But since the price tags on the biggest companies being taken private are far higher than the market values of any of the companies that might get added to the index, much of the cash will be divvied up by all the companies in the index. (The S&P 500 is market-cap weighted, so if a company that made up 1% of the index was replaced by one that accounted for 0.5%, the remainder of the cash would be distributed to the other companies in the index.) That could help send the market higher. Of course all the cash coming into the stock market, was really the stock market's to begin with. The reality is that, with so many companies going private, there are fewer stocks to buy, and that's sending trhe ones that remain higher".

"Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago, said healthy cash flows generated by many large stocks are making them attractive takeoiver candidates. He sais he expects this trend to continue, helping to keep the stock market rally going. Analyst, he added, seem to have been too pessimistic about first-quarter earnings. Although companies are reporting the slowest profit growth in several quarters, many are still beating reduced expectations. Several large companies reported that the weak dollar, which makes U.S. products more globally competitive, gave a big lift to sales, which helped earnings."
 
Some very sage words from Dennis Gartman. I love how he has 16 rules. Not 10, not 20. But 16. And in case you get tired of all this positive nonsense here are 10 easy steps on how to fail as a trader.
1. Never, Ever, Ever, Under Any Circumstance, Add to a Losing Position… not ever, not never! Adding to losing positions is tradings carcinogen; it is tradings driving while intoxicated. It will lead to ruin. Count on it!
2. Trade Like a Wizened Mercenary Soldier: We must fight on the winning side, not on the side we may believe to be correct economically.
3. Mental Capital Trumps Real Capital: Capital comes in two types, mental and real, and the former is far more valuable than the latter. Holding losing positions costs measurable real capital, but it costs immeasurable mental capital.

4. This Is Not a Business of Buying Low and Selling High; it is, however, a business of buying high and selling higher. Strength tends to beget strength, and weakness, weakness.
5. In Bull Markets One Can Only Be Long or Neutral, and in bear markets, one can only be short or neutral. This may seem self-evident; few understand it however, and fewer still embrace it.
6. “Markets Can Remain Illogical Far Longer Than You or I Can Remain Solvent.” These are Keynes’ words, and illogic does often reign, despite what the academics would have us believe.
7. Buy Markets That Show the Greatest Strength; Sell Markets That Show the Greatest Weakness: Metaphorically, when bearish we need to throw rocks into the wettest paper sacks, for they break most easily. When bullish we need to sail the strongest winds, for they carry the farthest.
8. Think Like a Fundamentalist; Trade Like a Simple Technician: The fundamentals may drive a market and we need to understand them, but if the chart is not bullish, why be bullish? Be bullish when the technicals and fundamentals, as you understand them, run in tandem.
9. Trading Runs in Cycles, Some Good, Most Bad: Trade large and aggressively when trading well; trade small and ever smaller when trading poorly. In “good times,” even errors turn to profits; in “bad times,” the most well-researched trade will go awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it and move on.
10. Keep Your Technical Systems Simple: Complicated systems breed confusion; simplicity breeds elegance. The great traders we’ve known have the simplest methods of trading. There is a correlation here!
11. In Trading/Investing, An Understanding of Mass Psychology Is Often More Important Than an Understanding of Economics: Simply put, “When they are cryin’, you should be buyin’! And when they are yellin’, you should be sellin’!”
12. Bear Market Corrections Are More Violent and Far Swifter Than Bull Market Corrections: Why they are is still a mystery to us, but they are; we accept it as fact and we move on.
13. There Is Never Just One Cockroach: The lesson of bad news on most stocks is that more shall follow… usually hard upon and always with detrimental effect upon price, until such time as panic prevails and the weakest hands finally exit their positions.
14. Be Patient with Winning Trades; Be Enormously Impatient with Losing Trades: The older we get, the more small losses we take each year… and our profits grow accordingly.
15. Do More of That Which Is Working and Less of That Which Is Not: This works in life as well as trading. Do the things that have been proven of merit. Add to winning trades; cut back or eliminate losing ones. If there is a “secret” to trading (and of life), this is it.
16. All Rules Are Meant To Be Broken…. but only very, very infrequently. Genius comes in knowing how truly infrequently one can do so and still prosper.

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/

white
 
I like this one the best (i.e. the sentiment survey)


11. In Trading/Investing, An Understanding of Mass Psychology Is Often More Important Than an Understanding of Economics: Simply put, “When they are cryin’, you should be buyin’! And when they are yellin’, you should be sellin’!” :laugh:


white
 
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