07/02/25
Stocks were widely mixed yesterday with big gains in the Dow, decent gains in the small caps, a modest loss for the S&P 500, and a fairly significant decline in the Nasdaq. The I-fund was flat and bonds were down slightly as yields moved up a bit. A lot of things that had been down recently, were up, and things that had been up were down, like oil, gold, and those yields. Is this a part of the pre-holiday reversal?
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
The spending bill passed in the Senate and now it has to go back to the House before it goes any further. The stock market didn't exactly jump for joy, but of course the S&P was up for 5 or the previous 6 trading days, and the was Nasdaq up 6 days in a row so perhaps it was a buy the rumor, sell the news reaction?
The Chicago PMI report came in lower than expected. It's not a major market mover and in fact you'd expect bond yields to fall on the cool data, but they went up.
Also, the May JOLTS report of job openings were higher than expecting, which is more soft economic data. The good news is that weaker data gives the Fed a reason to cut rates, but with President Trump's constant badgering of Jerome Powell, it may take a lot to get him to move.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was down very modestly and it closed off its lows. It felt like holiday trading but there was something weighing on tech yesterday and big tech has a big influence on the S&P 500 since the big tech companies are the largest cap stock in the market, but something interesting happened...
The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (same 500 stocks as above) was up sharply when every stock in the index is treated equally. That doesn't make anybody anymore money in the C-fund, but it could be a sign of the rally broadening out.
You can see that in the market breadth as well as many more stocks were up yesterday, than down despite some losses, and trading volume was also heavily leaning on the advancing side on the NYSE
Small caps had an interesting day as the DWCPF / S-fund had a moderate gain, but it gave up some big early gains making it a failed breakout. Like the failed breakdown last week, this could be a temporary turning point. Perhaps it is pre-holiday reversal related and we have two trading days left before the holiday. One of those days includes the important jobs report, and may include a deal or no deal on the spending bill.
The June TSP Talk AutoTracker winners have been posted in the forum. Congratulations to Pickles for being the top return for the month at +6.77%, and the other top 5 finishers who all had gains near 6%. This is why we do this. Get in on the action - it's free!
It's a holiday shortened week and we get a rare Thursday monthly jobs report tomorrow morning. Estimates are looking for a gain of 120,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. A weaker than expected report may actually get some bullish attention as the Fed may be more likely to cut interest rates if there are signs of a weakening labor market.
The ACWX (I-fund) was flat -- as was the dollar. I tilted the trading channel down a notch, connecting some recent highs and lows, and it no longer looks like it is getting parabolic. It survived the breakdown in mid-June and made a new closing high just the other day. There is an open gap just above 59 that could cause make it heavy, and if it does get filled that would break the channel, but not necessarily the trend as it is still comfortably above its 50-day average.
BND (bonds / F-fund) pulled back a bit yesterday, but it is still in a solid uptrend off the May lows. I thought there could be a pre-holiday pullback to test the breakout area just below 73 again, but so far it is hanging in there. Maybe the jobs report or spending bill news will cause something like that? Either way, this fund looks good.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks were widely mixed yesterday with big gains in the Dow, decent gains in the small caps, a modest loss for the S&P 500, and a fairly significant decline in the Nasdaq. The I-fund was flat and bonds were down slightly as yields moved up a bit. A lot of things that had been down recently, were up, and things that had been up were down, like oil, gold, and those yields. Is this a part of the pre-holiday reversal?
(The most current commentary is always posted here: www.tsptalk.com/comments.php)
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The spending bill passed in the Senate and now it has to go back to the House before it goes any further. The stock market didn't exactly jump for joy, but of course the S&P was up for 5 or the previous 6 trading days, and the was Nasdaq up 6 days in a row so perhaps it was a buy the rumor, sell the news reaction?
The Chicago PMI report came in lower than expected. It's not a major market mover and in fact you'd expect bond yields to fall on the cool data, but they went up.
Also, the May JOLTS report of job openings were higher than expecting, which is more soft economic data. The good news is that weaker data gives the Fed a reason to cut rates, but with President Trump's constant badgering of Jerome Powell, it may take a lot to get him to move.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was down very modestly and it closed off its lows. It felt like holiday trading but there was something weighing on tech yesterday and big tech has a big influence on the S&P 500 since the big tech companies are the largest cap stock in the market, but something interesting happened...
The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (same 500 stocks as above) was up sharply when every stock in the index is treated equally. That doesn't make anybody anymore money in the C-fund, but it could be a sign of the rally broadening out.
You can see that in the market breadth as well as many more stocks were up yesterday, than down despite some losses, and trading volume was also heavily leaning on the advancing side on the NYSE
Small caps had an interesting day as the DWCPF / S-fund had a moderate gain, but it gave up some big early gains making it a failed breakout. Like the failed breakdown last week, this could be a temporary turning point. Perhaps it is pre-holiday reversal related and we have two trading days left before the holiday. One of those days includes the important jobs report, and may include a deal or no deal on the spending bill.
The June TSP Talk AutoTracker winners have been posted in the forum. Congratulations to Pickles for being the top return for the month at +6.77%, and the other top 5 finishers who all had gains near 6%. This is why we do this. Get in on the action - it's free!
It's a holiday shortened week and we get a rare Thursday monthly jobs report tomorrow morning. Estimates are looking for a gain of 120,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.2%. A weaker than expected report may actually get some bullish attention as the Fed may be more likely to cut interest rates if there are signs of a weakening labor market.
The ACWX (I-fund) was flat -- as was the dollar. I tilted the trading channel down a notch, connecting some recent highs and lows, and it no longer looks like it is getting parabolic. It survived the breakdown in mid-June and made a new closing high just the other day. There is an open gap just above 59 that could cause make it heavy, and if it does get filled that would break the channel, but not necessarily the trend as it is still comfortably above its 50-day average.
BND (bonds / F-fund) pulled back a bit yesterday, but it is still in a solid uptrend off the May lows. I thought there could be a pre-holiday pullback to test the breakout area just below 73 again, but so far it is hanging in there. Maybe the jobs report or spending bill news will cause something like that? Either way, this fund looks good.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We may use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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