Bull Pen - Fall 2006

[Birchtree]

You heard correctly, but he is only one technician. I linked it primarily so members could see the graphs. Check out the graph linked on the F fund thread.

 

[robo]

Where To Next?
April 12, 2007

The stock market has been remarkably resilient these past weeks considering we had the equivalent of a global mini-crash only six short weeks ago. So what happens today, Friday the 13 th, as well as in the week following?

The stock market is signaling that a huge move is about to occur. The S&P 500 Index (SPX) is only about 1% from new rally and yearly highs. The Nasdaq Composite (COMPQ) and Russell 2000 Small cap Index (RUT) are about 2% from new highs. The NYSE advance decline line is just a small fraction from achieving new highs.

Don’t let Friday the 13 th worry you. Don’t let the market pundits worry you. The stock market has new highs in its very near future.

http://timing.typepad.com/timer/

 

[Birchtree]

Carl's Thrust Trend Model - PMM Percent Buy Index will give a buy signal today. Expect a dramatic move in the major market averages. Let's go mega trend. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

We could again see simultaneous record highs by the DJIA, DJTA, and DJUA this coming week which would again suggest that a new leg of the bull market is forming. The Wilshire 5000 will also participate and confirm the primary positive trend. New highs were confirmed by a record in the advance/decline line. Stock is being accumulated. A two to three year target of 2000 to 21oo for the S&P 500 will make my head spin. What ever you do don't go away in May - the fun is about to begin.

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[Birchtree]

"A BusinessWeek analysis of financial reports from more than 1000 large and midsize companies shows that global capital expenditures in the fourth quarter of 2006 were actually up 18.1% over the previous year..."

http://tinyurl.com/295ca6

 

[Birchtree]

Does it get any better than this - I think it will. We have not yet arrived at the epicenter of wave 3 of 3, you'll know it when we do. The Wilshire 5000 is at a new all-time high of 14,913.16. The DJUA only needs to go to 515.32 and the NYA at 9639.28 is a new all-time high.

 

[Birchtree]

"New Highs Hit Highest Levels of 2007"

http://www.tickersense.typepad.com

 

[Birchtree]

The latest Mark Hulbert HSNSI closed on Monday at 34.1%. At the stock market's February high, the HSNSI stood at 62.4%. Read at your own risk.

http://www.marketwatch.com Hulbert's "What's the Encore for Stocks".

 

[Birchtree]

"Even more bullish is a similar ratio that is based on the dollar value of the insider's transactions, as opposed to the number of shares bought and sold. This ration dropped to 2.29 in the latest week, according to Vickers, down from 18.92 in the prior week and 23.62 in the week before that".

http://www.marketwatch.com Mark Hulbert "These bullish insiders: Their optimism in the stock market grows even stronger".

 

[Birchtree]

Abby Joseph Cohen will be on CNBC at 1600 hours - bullish still I think.

 

[wht00ss]

It now appears the S&P 500 is exhibiting the final 5th Wave of an Elliot 5 Wave pattern as talked about last weekend. Notice how the 4th wave (corrective wave) found support near its 200 Day EMA (green line) which has led to the final upward 5th wave. Of course the big question is how much higher will the S&P 500 go before the final 5th wave peaks leading to an ABC type correction?

Once again a brief review of a Elliot Wave 5 Wave Pattern shows that waves 1, 3 and 5 are upward moves with wave 3 lasting the longest while wave 1 and 5 are of short duration. Meanwhile waves 2 and 4 are corrective waves. Also notice that once the final upward 5th wave ends completing the 5 Wave pattern this is then followed by an ABC type correction.​

http://http://www.amateur-investor.net/AII_Weekend_Analysis_April_21_07.htm

 

[GGal]

Hey, this is very interesting.....do we have a picture of this for last year? By date? Just curious.

Thanks
GA

 

[gunsmokex]

So Ford does their report on Thurs, that could be bad.

 

[Birchtree]

GeorgiaGal,

Check Bullpen #616 for one interpretation of Elliott Wave with graph.

Dennis

 

[Birchtree]

With the idea that Primary 3 up is still in its early stages of unwinding to the upside as it relates to the NYSE group of stocks, we will see many multiple 3 digit Dow up days in a row in the future. The superlative bull manure is wafting throughout the neighborhood. This bull market will power higher as long as people don't start buying into it in droves and as long as the prevailing belief is that it's a cyclical bull within a secular bear. Ferdinand believes a secular bull leg began in October'02. Snort.

Dennis - permabull #1

 

[Birchtree]

"I am looking for companies that have a substantial portion of their earnings coming from international operations to experience higher growth than those that are primarily looking to earnings growth within the United States".

http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/wagner/2007/0425.html

 

[Birchtree]

Somebody please tell me if the RevShark still has cold feet? TIA.

 

[Birchtree]

It looks like the A/D line might be turning more positive - that increases my chances to pull down a few dollars. We could now be back to both the 9 month and 4 year cycles moving concurrently in the same direction and this should provide enough staying power to continue for several months. The DJUA often hits its high well before the final high of the market as a whole by about 3 months. As long as the NYAD continues to move higher and higher so will price and the longer it does the longer the advance will run. We are at the most acute angle of price right now where the only real comparison was in the 2003 period when, again, both the 9 month and 4 year cycle were moving up concurrently.

 

[fabijo]

Somebody please tell me if the RevShark still has cold feet? TIA.

Here are a couple of quotes from his page:

(about NASDAQ) Although the bulls remain firmly in control, new entries for buys are none existent. We are staying patient, as we look for prudent places to put our capital to work.

(about S&P 500) The index remains very extended at these levels, and new buys are becoming nearly impossible to find. We raised some cash today into the strength, and are remaining patient.

(about Russell 2000) Small Caps continued to lag during the big move today, and this is a troubling sign as it indicates that the hot money may not have the confidence in this market to make aggressive moves. We trimmed some winners during today’s session into strength, and will look to put money back to work when the charts offer prudent entry points.

all that is freely available at:
http://www.sharkinvesting.com/newsletter.aspx

 

[Birchtree]

"As of Wednesday night, the HSNSI, which reflects the average stock market exposure among a subset of short-term market timing newsletters tracked by Hulbert Financial Digest, stood at plus 42.2%. That's only modestly above the 34.1% level recorded in the past week....so cautious as to be bullish from a contrary opinion point of view. For perspective, at the stock market's February high, the HSNSI stood at 62.4%". So many nonbelievers.

http://www.marketwatch.com Peter Brimelow - Bulls snorting over stocks, but not yet stampeding. 4/26/07