Bull Pen - Fall 2006

[Bullitt]

We should not be surprised to see a major pullback sometime soon in May that will work off these over-bought levels and likely test the above-mentioned support. That moment will be a major test that will separate the bears from the bulls. I am expecting that test to be successful only because I cannot see what catalyst would encourage the sellers to take us even lower.

http://www.drduru.com/money/080504_BullAdvantage.htm

 

[Birchtree]

I just picked up 5 shares of GE at $33.00 with my dividend reinvestment. These shares are paying a 3.79% yield. This company will eventually go to one of my future grandchildren - I never plan to sell it, only give it away. That was a good article. Thanks for posting it.

 

[luv2read]

I agree with Birch, good article, thanks for posting, Bullitt!

 

[Bullitt]

Although the US Stock Market rarely has experienced consecutive losing streaks of five or more months, investors who've maintained their exposure to stocks throughout such periods have generally benefitted from staying the course.

 

[Bullitt]

From Prieur du Plessis

...factors beginning to point to the possible initial stages of the long-term bottoming out in the relative performance of banking stocks and, ultimately, to better prospects for stock markets as a whole.

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/...banks-to-indicate-direction-for-stock-market/

 

[Birchtree]

Good article Bullitt - I went in earlier today and DCA'd my daughter into her positions in KEY, FNB and LRY - all lower than the last purchase price - just the way we like to do business. Dividends are starting to add up.

 

[Bullitt]

Still on the fence as to whether or not Oil is in a speculative bubble?

Crude rose 697 percent since trading at $17.45 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange in November 2001, and reached 28 record highs this year. The last time a similar pattern was seen in equities was eight years ago, when Internet-related stocks sent the Nasdaq Composite Index up 640 percent to its highest level ever, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Bespoke Investment Group LLC.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=a9wRqtCtGjZY

 

[robo]

From Prieur du Plessis

...factors beginning to point to the possible initial stages of the long-term bottoming out in the relative performance of banking stocks and, ultimately, to better prospects for stock markets as a whole.

http://www.investmentpostcards.com/...banks-to-indicate-direction-for-stock-market/

I have a lot of respect for NAV's work. We shall see, but he is very good at picking trends and he thinks we could be headed up.


Robo



Saturday, June 14, 2008

Weekly trends - 6/13/08
Last week i showed a chart of the NYSE Vol MCO with a potential divergent setup. Now the divergences were blown away and we proceeded towards my longstanding target of 1350 for this correction. We'll the price undershot even more into SPX 1331.


What we had last week was a potential divergent setup. But what we have end of this week is a confirmed diveregent setup on both the NYSE Vol and NYSE breadth MCOs. So i will go out on the limb and call the 6/12 bottom as an important bottom for many months to come. We should begin a multimonth advance here which should take us into the SPX 1500 +/- 20 points area.


http://nav-ta.blogspot.com/2008/06/weekly-trends-61308.html

 

[Bullitt]

Specialists/market maker short positions as light as this have been a good signal of IT bottoms in the past. Chart courtesy of www.marketgauge.com

 

[robo]

All, take a trip to the past:

Remember Gold at $340-ish/oz?
Silver at $5.40-ish?
Gas? -well, lets just remember it was under a $1.00/gal.?

That all wasn't all that long ago -was it?? Ok what 5-7 years, right??

-what happened? Come on, we still enjoy all the babes in bikinis! (they still live there in my mind). Can't be just that we aged all that much?? - NO WAY!
View attachment 3773

Yep, those were the good old days.

 

[nnuut]

All, take a trip to the past:

Remember Gold at $340-ish/oz?
Silver at $5.40-ish?
Gas? -well, lets just remember it was under a $1.00/gal.?

That all wasn't all that long ago -was it?? Ok what 5-7 years, right??

-what happened? Come on, we still enjoy all the babes in bikinis! (they still live there in my mind). Can't be just that we aged all that much?? - NO WAY!
View attachment 3773

Yep, those were the good old days.

I remember GOLD in the 1950s was $35 an Ounce, of course I was just a child, but remember my Dad complaining about it!
http://goldinfo.net/yearly.html

 

[Bullitt]

One for the crooks. Like Bob says, never doubt the power of Congress in an election year.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will limit the ability of traders to bet on a drop in shares of brokerage firms, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae as part of a crackdown on stock manipulation, the agency's chairman said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEd6iHTmqiOY&refer=home

 

[Birchtree]

Inflation means the core economy must be strong - look for a better than 3% GDP for Q2. More commodity type stocks are being added to the SPX - that should help with a positive recovery.

 

[robo]

Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for Wednesday (08/13/08)


www.toddmarketforecast.com

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW - 109 on 600 net declines

NASDAQ COMP. - 2 on 50 net advances

SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish

The news was uniformly bad on Wednesday. Crude inventories fell and
this helped oil to rally over 3%. Import prices were higher than
expected. Deere had poor earnings and this is somewhat reflective of the
world economy. Finally, Merrill Lynch downgraded Goldman Sachs, Morgan
Stanley and Lehman Bros. As you can imagine, this didn't help the
financial sector.
The Dow was down triple digits for the second day in a row, but
there were some rays of hope. The NASDAQ 100 was actually up for the
session as was the Russell 2000. That is frequently a sign that the
market wants to bounce.
We continue to believe that a major low is in, but on a short term
basis, we have some concerns. Yesterday we discussed the financial
stocks. Today crude oil was up almost 4%. We aren't quite ready to issue
a buy, but the weekly chart is oversold for the first time since early
2007. This means we have to be on the alert for a multi week rebound and
this could cause some difficulty for stocks. Stay tuned.
Gold had a sharp rally as did many other commodities on Wednesday.
The dollar gave back a bit as did the bond market.

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:

Retail sales were down 0.1%, in line with expectations. July import
prices were higher by 1.7%. The expectation was for a rise of 1.0 %.
Crude inventories dropped 316,000 barrels. The consensus called for a
rise of 300,000. On Thursday we get the CPI and initial claims, both
before the opening.


BOTTOM LINE:

Our intermediate term systems are back on a buy signal. Mutual fund
investors are 100% invested in an equity mutual fund or ETF.

Short term ETF traders are in cash. Stay there on Thursday.

OTHER MARKETS

We are on a buy for bonds as of July 24.

We are on a buy for the dollar and a sell for the Euro as of July 23.


We are on a sell for gold as of July 18.

We are on a sell for crude oil as of August 4.

We are long term bullish for all major world markets, including those of
the U.S., Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.



http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/TODD.html

 

[robo]

MARK HULBERT

September: The horror story
Commentary: Does September deserve its reputation as being bad for stocks?

By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch
September is almost upon us.

You'll take this as very bad news indeed if you read any of quite a few of the investment newsletters I follow. Their editors have recently been making a big deal out of September's supposed tendency to be bad for the stock market.
But should you change your behavior because of this historical tendency? I'm not so sure.
Before I explain why, let me review the historical data, which certainly appears to provide very strong support for the notion that Septembers are bad for the stock market.


After failing for several years to find a plausible explanation for why September is bad for stocks, I eventually gave up.

You don't have to follow my lead, of course. If you want to continue searching for the villain, be my guest.

But don't bet that this September will be an awful month until you have found him.


http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...0FD971-CFBE-4D2F-894B-648A2535F214}&dist=news

 

[Bullitt]

So easy to find the bearish print these days. The ones who make any sense at all of investing can't be found in the mainstream media. They can be found, but they take a little more work. Do you really think anyone who's making strategic buys in these times wants to let anyone know what they are doing?

Like Louie said today... We're entering a seasonally strong time of year and the best time to get into the market is a few months before the end of the recession. We've had our retest, the global markets have been injected with cash and maybe investors will return after the election.

Uncle Frank thinks the Yen and Dollar are due for major retracements. Anyone else besides me taking advantage of these parabolic spikes and buying certain ETF shares?

It's getting close to pension fund season. Fore example, how can certain arenas such as infrastructure be overlooked as bad bets going forward? Hedge Funds were pretty high on those particular stocks up until around September while they've halved ever since. Something to think about.


(Note: In Post #749 in this thread, the Specialist Short Sales that I posted a while back appears to be alive and actively updating weekly if anyone is looking for a new sentiment indicator.)

 

[Bullitt]

Apparently we’ve got the strongest signal to buy equities in six years, according to Morgan Stanley’s super-bear bull Teun Draaisma - a “full house” of indicators that together have a “near-perfect” track record. But what are those indicators?

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2008/11/04/17783/why-draaisma-is-saying-buy-buy-buy-buy/

 

[Bullitt]

This should get force some folks off the sidelines in the months ahead. It's never different any time. We're witnessing a bubble in Treasuries that's rearing to blow, it's only a question of when.

---------------------------------

Money-Market Fund Yields May Fall to Less Than Zero
Investors in money-market mutual funds that focus on U.S. Treasuries may lose money for the first time if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates next week and yields become too small to cover expenses.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20670001&refer=home&sid=axHG.5Dvl3P4