Bull Pen - Fall 2006

[Spaf]

Wht00ss,
If ok with tsptalk you "Marines" could have a market talk "Crying-Buying-Yelling & Selling" thread! Show-me is a Moderator (ex-Marine). But, ya gonna havta run it by Tom first!..........................Spaf

 

[Show-me]

We prefer "former Marine". Save the ex for the wives that don't understand us. LOL :nuts::laugh:

Wht00ss,
If ok with tsptalk you "Marines" could have a market talk "Crying-Buying-Yelling & Selling" thread! Show-me is a Moderator (ex-Marine). But, ya gonna havta run it by Tom first!..........................Spaf

 

[FogSailing]

Excellent advice...now if I could only remember all of them...heck i'd settle for half...

FS

 

[wht00ss]

Wht00ss,
If ok with tsptalk you "Marines" could have a market talk "Crying-Buying-Yelling & Selling" thread! Show-me is a Moderator (ex-Marine). But, ya gonna havta run it by Tom first!..........................Spaf

We prefer "former Marine". Save the ex for the wives that don't understand us. LOL :nuts::laugh:

As Show-me knows once a marine ALWAYS a marine even to the grave - not to get too serious.


As an addition my orthopedic doc has given me the okay to start hitting the golf ball again after this last hip replacement so let me see where do I want to be in front of a computer or relaxing on a golf course (OK maybe not always relaxing but doing alot of %#@$$!! damn frustrating game and enjoying the 19th hole as well.)? I'm sure you get the idea.

Just want to say I've enjoyed the intereaction and am muchly impressed with the level of knowledge on this board - definitely a fine group of people.

I will post my IFT's from time to time but good luck to everyone and may we all reach our financial goals. (Bill and Warren Buffett I'm sure will be looking over their shoulder.)

On a personal note my son in law (father to 3 of my granddaughers and loving husband to my very special daughter) passed away yesterday from a heart attack at 53 years old SO DO NOT EVER TAKE ANYTHING FOR GRANTED AND USE YOUR TIME WISELY AND DON'T EVER WASTE IT.

Best to all

WHITE

 

[tsptalk]

I like this one the best (i.e. the sentiment survey)


11. In Trading/Investing, An Understanding of Mass Psychology Is Often More Important Than an Understanding of Economics: Simply put, “When they are cryin’, you should be buyin’! And when they are yellin’, you should be sellin’!” :laugh:

Agree! I have found sentiment / psychology indicators to be the best predictors of market direction.

 

[wht00ss]

Tom, not to belabor the obvious but following your sentiment survey as opposed to some other market indicators has been a fairly successful road map overall in this confounding market environment. I still like the ecclectic approach but putting a greater weighting on the sentiment survey sure has seemed to make sense relative to TSP investing.

My congrats on the idea/success.

white

 

[Show-me]

http://www.pbs.org/nbr/wrapper/marketmonitor.html

FYI

 

[The_Technician]

Agree! I have found sentiment / psychology indicators to be the best predictors of market direction.

Personally Tom I have been impressed with the sentiment...but how has it done in market peaks????? Any ideas????

 

[vectorman]

Question to the leaders... Looking at the charts for Japan, UK, Germany, SPX, Dow, NASDAQ and may DWCP...does it look like cup and handle pattern on all the charts forming? Thanks

http://www.allstocks.com/markets/World_Charts/world_charts.html

http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=DJIA
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=NASDAQ
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=SP500
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=EFA
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/advchart/frames/frames.asp?symb=DWCP

http://www.thestockbandit.com/Cup-handle.htm

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:chart_patterns:cup_with_handle

 

[Show-me]

Surprisingly Good Inflation News Will Continue

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...estor&ArticleId=NS20070618081011TheBigPicture

Surprisingly Good Inflation News Will Continue

Last Update: 18-Jun-07 08:09 ET

Inflation rates have been declining. They are well within an acceptable range and there is little risk they will increase significantly. Inflation data are likely to be supportive to the financial markets through year-end.

Current Conditions
The two most important inflation measures are the CPI and the PCE deflator. The core rates, which exclude the volatile food and energy components, are the best measures of inflationary pressures. The food and energy components are frequently impacted by factors other than trends in underlying demand.
The table below lists the monthly changes for the past six months of these critical inflation measures.
NovDecJanFebMarAprMayCore CPI0.10.10.30.20.10.20.1Core PCE0.00.10.20.30.00.1n/a
The trends are very favorable. In fact, apart from some pressures in January and February, when inflation rates tend to pick up a bit, there is little sign of inflationary pressures.
The annual rate of increase in the core CPI over the seven months is about 1.9%. The annual rate of increase in the core PCE over the six months (May data will be out on June 29) is just 1.4%.
Those low rates in recent months have brought the year-over-year increases in these measures lower.
The year-over-year increase in the core CPI has dropped from 2.9% in September to 2.2% in May.
The year-over-year increase in the core PCE has dropped from 2.4% in September to 2.0% in April.

 

[Oldcoin]

Re: Surprisingly Good Inflation News Will Continue

http://www.briefing.com/GeneralCont...estor&ArticleId=NS20070618081011TheBigPicture

Surprisingly Good Inflation News Will Continue

.[/B]

Right now I’m trying to understand how, with the significant increase in fuel cost, we haven’t seen a corresponding jump across the board in the CPI and PPI. It stands to reason that costs have gone up, but prices have not followed suite. Corporations must be eating the difference which would erode their profits. Tom posted that interest rates might go down later in the year; the Fed may have to lower rates to head off the inflationary pressure from fuel cost.

 

[Show-me]

Re: Surprisingly Good Inflation News Will Continue

Right now I’m trying to understand how, with the significant increase in fuel cost, we haven’t seen a corresponding jump across the board in the CPI and PPI. It stands to reason that costs have gone up, but prices have not followed suite. Corporations must be eating the difference which would erode their profits. Tom posted that interest rates might go down later in the year; the Fed may have to lower rates to head off the inflationary pressure from fuel cost.

Brother, you ain't the only one. I talk with my co-workers weekly if not daily about it. Specifically we also do not understand PPI not rising more than it does. Energy, commodities, and food are the foundation of all manufactured goods everywhere, yet no significant rise in PPI.

If ya can't beat'em join'em. Rah, Rah Goldilocks!

 

[mlk_man]

Re: Surprisingly Good Inflation News Will Continue

Right now I’m trying to understand how, with the significant increase in fuel cost, we haven’t seen a corresponding jump across the board in the CPI and PPI. It stands to reason that costs have gone up, but prices have not followed suite. Corporations must be eating the difference which would erode their profits. Tom posted that interest rates might go down later in the year; the Fed may have to lower rates to head off the inflationary pressure from fuel cost.

Oldcoin, forgive me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the Fed raise rates to head off inflation and lower rates to head off recession?

M_M

 

[mlk_man]

Just a hunch, but I think we could see a 2% gain next week when the Fed lowers rates................:nuts:

 

[Oldcoin]

Re: Surprisingly Good Inflation News Will Continue

Oldcoin, forgive me if I'm wrong, but doesn't the Fed raise rates to head off inflation and lower rates to head off recession?

M_M

You’re right, I was thinking they may have to lower rates to keep the economy from stalling, not head off inflation.

I need more coffee

 

[Birchtree]

"...global deflationary collapse will be inevitable once the credit bubble bursts".

http://www.safehaven.com/article-7875.htm

 

[Birchtree]

From TWSJ 7/3 by Rick Carew - Chinese Bank's Large Fund To Target Investments Abroad

"Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd. said it raised 4.45 billion yuan in the country's biggest overseas-investment fund to date under a program to encourage Chinese people to increase investment abroad.
Beijing wants more capital outflows to ease appreciation pressure on the yuan and reduce the buildup of China's $1.2 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves.
After the close of the Oriental Pearl fund Friday, ICBC plans to offer Chinese investors another fund this month that includes investments in overseas stocks, the bank said.
The successful fund-raising effort by ICBC points to a potential revival in interest for the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investor program, as China's domestic stock market looks increasingly overvalued. Beijing widened the scope of QDII for banks to include overseas stocks in March.
The Shanghai Composite Index has dropped 12% since peaking in intraday trading May 29. Despite the recent drop, the index still gained 43% this year.
Since its introduction last year, the QDII program has failed to channel much of China's savings overseas. Yin Long, a banking regulator overseeing the program, said in late May that banks had used less than $1 billion of the nearly $15 billion in quotas issued." Ferdinand says just be patient and recognize who has the world's most undervalued market - they are coming.

 

[Birchtree]

Merger deals globally reached a record $1.65 trillion in the second quarter, a 90% increase from the same period last year - so says Larry Kudlow. He also thinks that nonfarm productivity will grow at an average rate of 2.5% over the next decade. The difficulty in hiring skilled workers will force companies to spend more on equipment and technologies to make their existing workers more productive. In the long term calmness about inflation stems from a belief that U.S. businesses haven't lost their ability to get more output from each worker, a process that helps them absorb rising costs without raising prices. As some of you have recently experienced.

 

[Bullitt]

Larry Kudlow is one of the few who see the broader strokes of the painting.

 

[Birchtree]

"...the next 20-Week Cycle trough is more likely to be a buying opportunity than the beginning of a serious decline."

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/swenlin/2007/0706.html