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Bull Pen - Fall 2006
- Thread starter Griffin
- Start date
Birchtree
Well-known member
We have completed a double bottom if you take into account the intraday lows - we are now completing a U bottom. I have over 300 new C fund shares at low prices that will boost my balance on the way back out of the well. I'll have to pay more from now on - unless we get another correction for another deeper bottom. Mooo.
James48843
Well-known member
Snoorrttt
I'm moving in.
Got that cince strap tightened.
Hanging on fer dear life.
Yeeehaaawwwwww!
I'm moving in.
Got that cince strap tightened.
Hanging on fer dear life.
Yeeehaaawwwwww!
Birchtree
Well-known member
There have been two 9 to 1 up days in recent weeks, one occurred on 3/6, and the second on 3/21. The last time a double 9 to 1 signal was triggered was 6/29/06. 60 days later the SPX was up 19%. We now have the new 9 month cycle and the 4 year cycle plus the 3rd presidential year all working to apply upward pressure on the market. Open the door and let'em in.
That can't be right.
Birchtree
Well-known member
You are right, I should have been more specific in saying that if one had bought the bottom on 6/29/06 and held for sixty trading days one would have realized an annualized gain of 19%. That is close to the average gain from a recognized Zweig momentum thrust that is usually 22% from an historical perspective. Scratch that SPX.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Feredinand buddy, make room for Tom - he's finally on his way. His stomach must be in knots - but it's the right decision. You know what is going to happen as we get closer and closer to the center point (epicenter) of an Elliott Wave Primary 3rd wave to the upside - weare going to get great shakes that will shake, rattle and roll the branches of the G fund. I can already feel the vibrations on the tracks of the millions of hoofs on the move.
Birchtree
Well-known member
The greatest gains in the S&P 500 index often come in the first quarter of the third year of a Presidential Cycle. Since 1971, this was true for 6 out of the past 9 third years. Looks like it may be the second quarter this time around. There is still an attitude of healthy skepticism, which means there's money on the sidelines. This potential influx of cash could help stocks soar to new all-time highs. Since we remain in a secular bear trend we could soon be entering a new leg of this bull market. Whew!
Birchtree
Well-known member
"If the VIX can't move below yesyerday's low, then the S&P will be subject to failing after doing a 100% retracement to February 26th's close on the S&P".
http://www.safehaven.com/article-7204.htm
http://www.safehaven.com/article-7204.htm
wht00ss
Honorary Hall of Fame Member
A nine to one day
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={044DCFB1-41B2-469D-81C4-5F47257C268E}
white
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={044DCFB1-41B2-469D-81C4-5F47257C268E}
white
robo
Well-known member
Sunday, March 25, 2007
"Buy the Dips" Unpopular, But Very Profitable
Year after year, the weak hands of the crowd are quick to sell short on bad news. And, year after year, the smart money buys the dips. Thus it is that the rich get richer and those who follow the advice of the permabears get poorer. Here's a tabular summary of last week in the stock market:
Last week, the market rocketed back up, erasing virtually all of the losses from the Yen-carry, subprime, monster-behind-the-door bad news campaign concocted by those whose dour outlook exceeds Dickens' Scrooge. That the permabears' influence is still so large on the public psyche is amazing when you think about all of the opportunities the public has lost to make money in the stock market over the years. The most influential permabear is still pounding the table to get anyone who will listen that the world is coming to an end Monday morning. Barnum's observation about a sucker born every minute still rings true today. Human nature is hard-wired to expect the most unlikely outcome -- disaster -- instead of the most likely outcome, which is a continuation of the overall trend. Why else would the Chicken Littles be so successful in being wrong all the time?
But, if you missed the rally because you sold and "forgot" to repurchase, don't feel bad. Like the bus, another will come along if you only have the patience to wait for it. Just be sure to tune out the drone of the always-wrong permabears and be sure to catch it.
http://marketclues.blogspot.com/
"Buy the Dips" Unpopular, But Very Profitable
Year after year, the weak hands of the crowd are quick to sell short on bad news. And, year after year, the smart money buys the dips. Thus it is that the rich get richer and those who follow the advice of the permabears get poorer. Here's a tabular summary of last week in the stock market:
Last week, the market rocketed back up, erasing virtually all of the losses from the Yen-carry, subprime, monster-behind-the-door bad news campaign concocted by those whose dour outlook exceeds Dickens' Scrooge. That the permabears' influence is still so large on the public psyche is amazing when you think about all of the opportunities the public has lost to make money in the stock market over the years. The most influential permabear is still pounding the table to get anyone who will listen that the world is coming to an end Monday morning. Barnum's observation about a sucker born every minute still rings true today. Human nature is hard-wired to expect the most unlikely outcome -- disaster -- instead of the most likely outcome, which is a continuation of the overall trend. Why else would the Chicken Littles be so successful in being wrong all the time?
But, if you missed the rally because you sold and "forgot" to repurchase, don't feel bad. Like the bus, another will come along if you only have the patience to wait for it. Just be sure to tune out the drone of the always-wrong permabears and be sure to catch it.
http://marketclues.blogspot.com/
robo
Well-known member
THRUST/TREND MODEL NEARS BUY SIGNAL
3/30/2007
Thrust/Trend Model Nears Buy Signal
by Carl Swenlin
Our Thrust/Trend Model (T/TM) is so-named because it treats bottoms and tops differently -- tops tend to be rounded trend changes, and bottoms tend to be formed by sharp changes in direction accompanied by internal up thrusts. At price tops, T/TM changes from a buy to neutral (or sell) based upon a downside crossover of the 50-EMA in relation to the 200-EMA, evidence that a change in trend from up to down has occurred. (The T/TM for the S&P 500 is currently in neutral.) At bottoms the model uses a double screen -- the PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) crossing up through its 10-EMA, and the Percent Buy Index (PBI) crossing up through its 32-EMA.
While PMO crossovers alone are useful for short-term work, there are a lot of whipsaws, so we use the additional screen of the PBI crossover to slow the model down, making it more suitable for medium-term work. On the chart below we display all the components of the T/TM. Of particular interest now are the two thrust components -- the PMO and PBI. Note that the PMO upside crossover has already occurred (on the day of the giant one-day rally); however, while the PBI still remains below its 32-EMA, it has closed the gap. If the PBI does cross to the upside, the T/TM for the S&P 500 will switch to a buy signal, but my advice would be to not anticipate. Wait for it to happen.
Besides the normal need to maintain model discipline, one of the reasons for caution is that the PBI has still not dropped to the level of previous corrections. It is not absolutely necessary that it do this, but it would be a desirable sign that the correction had run a normal course and that a price bottom would not be suspect. I have drawn ellipses on the PBI in 2005 and 2006 to show the kind of PBI action we might expect.
Another concern is that the PMO looks as if it is trying to turn down below the zero line. If this were to happen, it is extremely negative for the short-term, possibly longer.
Bottom Line: We have had a number of positive events over the last few weeks, and the T/TM is close to generating a buy signal; however, there is reason to believe that the correction still has at least a few more weeks to go.
Regardless of my personal opinion, we rely on the mechanical trend models to determine our market posture. Below is a recent snapshot of our primary trend-following timing model status for the major indexes and sectors we track.
Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. Be prepared to adjust your tactics if conditions change.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/070330_TTM.html
3/30/2007
Thrust/Trend Model Nears Buy Signal
by Carl Swenlin
Our Thrust/Trend Model (T/TM) is so-named because it treats bottoms and tops differently -- tops tend to be rounded trend changes, and bottoms tend to be formed by sharp changes in direction accompanied by internal up thrusts. At price tops, T/TM changes from a buy to neutral (or sell) based upon a downside crossover of the 50-EMA in relation to the 200-EMA, evidence that a change in trend from up to down has occurred. (The T/TM for the S&P 500 is currently in neutral.) At bottoms the model uses a double screen -- the PMO (Price Momentum Oscillator) crossing up through its 10-EMA, and the Percent Buy Index (PBI) crossing up through its 32-EMA.
While PMO crossovers alone are useful for short-term work, there are a lot of whipsaws, so we use the additional screen of the PBI crossover to slow the model down, making it more suitable for medium-term work. On the chart below we display all the components of the T/TM. Of particular interest now are the two thrust components -- the PMO and PBI. Note that the PMO upside crossover has already occurred (on the day of the giant one-day rally); however, while the PBI still remains below its 32-EMA, it has closed the gap. If the PBI does cross to the upside, the T/TM for the S&P 500 will switch to a buy signal, but my advice would be to not anticipate. Wait for it to happen.
Besides the normal need to maintain model discipline, one of the reasons for caution is that the PBI has still not dropped to the level of previous corrections. It is not absolutely necessary that it do this, but it would be a desirable sign that the correction had run a normal course and that a price bottom would not be suspect. I have drawn ellipses on the PBI in 2005 and 2006 to show the kind of PBI action we might expect.
Another concern is that the PMO looks as if it is trying to turn down below the zero line. If this were to happen, it is extremely negative for the short-term, possibly longer.
Bottom Line: We have had a number of positive events over the last few weeks, and the T/TM is close to generating a buy signal; however, there is reason to believe that the correction still has at least a few more weeks to go.
Regardless of my personal opinion, we rely on the mechanical trend models to determine our market posture. Below is a recent snapshot of our primary trend-following timing model status for the major indexes and sectors we track.
Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. Be prepared to adjust your tactics if conditions change.
http://www.decisionpoint.com/ChartSpotliteFiles/070330_TTM.html
Birchtree
Well-known member
" It's not a coincidence that the current uptrend started in March 2003. That was a major cycle low. Are we now at another major cycle low that will reproduce the gains of the last four years into March 2011"?
http:www.marketclues.blogspot.com Sunday 4/1/07
http:www.marketclues.blogspot.com Sunday 4/1/07
Birchtree
Well-known member
"Elliott Wave Analysis Theory: The History, Philosophy, and Basics".
http://www.safehaven.com/article-7305.htm
http://www.safehaven.com/article-7305.htm
Birchtree
Well-known member
The NYAD (Daily) Cumulative at 175295.00 is a new all-time high.
The NYSI (Daily) Summation Index is at +755.77 and getting ready to break up through the declining tops line of MCSUM at +800 from Dec. '06.
The market internals IMHO are now stronger than at any time in the last 3 years. This market is coiled and ready to release - makes me feel fortunate that I am loaded up and capable of playing. We'll probably get a new all-time high on the SPX this week - anything above the 3/24/2000 price of 1527.46 will be grand.
The NYSI (Daily) Summation Index is at +755.77 and getting ready to break up through the declining tops line of MCSUM at +800 from Dec. '06.
The market internals IMHO are now stronger than at any time in the last 3 years. This market is coiled and ready to release - makes me feel fortunate that I am loaded up and capable of playing. We'll probably get a new all-time high on the SPX this week - anything above the 3/24/2000 price of 1527.46 will be grand.
Birchtree
Well-known member
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