Bull Pen - Fall 2006

[robo]

Growth has been on a down trend and that's a fact. 4th QTR growth was suppose to have picked up due to warmer weather, hence the 3.5% advance GDP last month. Last Wednesday, it was revised down to 2.2%.

What is this guy smoking?

I hope the good stuff. I watch these debates daily about the economy from so called experts on CNBC. They are all just opinions. I’m sticking with the trend, and for now it’s short-term bearish and longer-term bullish until it’s not. These numbers get revised so much.

I have know idea were the Market is headed short-term, but I think by the end of the year it will be higher. In my opinion the economy is still ok.
I don't know about Goldilocks. It could be the Three Bears, but I remain Bullish long-term.

I will follow only two folks on the economy, Bob and Henry. If they are fooled or wrong then so am I. They are both still long, but are not traders. They are longer-term investors, but not buy and hold. This could be a tough year for investors and traders could have a blast. It will be interesting to see how the Bunny Hoppers perform this year. It has been very tough so far. Looks like more selling in Japan and US futures are headed down pretty hard.

 

[350zCommTech]

I hope the good stuff. I watch these debates daily about the economy from so called experts on CNBC. They are all just opinions. I’m sticking with the trend, and for now it’s short-term bearish and longer-term bullish until it’s not. These numbers get revised so much.

I have know idea were the Market is headed short-term, but I think by the end of the year it will be higher. In my opinion the economy is still ok.
I don't know about Goldilocks. It could be the Three Bears, but I remain Bullish long-term.

I will follow only two folks on the economy, Bob and Henry. If they are fooled or wrong then so am I. They are both still long, but are not traders. They are longer-term investors, but not buy and hold. This could be a tough year for investors and traders could have a blast. It will be interesting to see how the Bunny Hoppers perform this year. It has been very tough so far. Looks like more selling in Japan and US futures are headed down pretty hard.

Robo,

I hope we don't a have a recession either. Being bullish is ok and his opinions are he's, but you've got to admit, his blog was full of misinformation.

 

[Birchtree]

Henry has actually been cautious on the internationals since 12/06. He prefers the large cap sectors.
Bob is giving every indication that he welcomes Tuesday's drop and follow through as actually extending the life of the bull market. Guess I'll be forced to throw more money away tomorrow, I got wall flowers reaching for touch.

 

[robo]

Robo,

I hope we don't a have a recession either. Being bullish is ok and his opinions are he's, but you've got to admit, his blog was full of misinformation.

Many of these guys just look at the data differently. I don't think it is intentional, but you are correct many do get it incorrect or make the data support their opinions. I hope the bleeding stops soon and we can find some support. Are you in the over the 10% camp? I'm in the under the 10% camp for this sell-off. I might buy some additional stock tomorrow. Futures are looking very ugly again. The shorts are building, and if we do get a short covering rally it will be a big one. The bears are in control for now.

 

[350zCommTech]

Many of these guys just look at the data differently. I don't think it is intentional, but you are correct many do get it incorrect or make the data support their opinions. I hope the bleeding stops soon and we can find some support. Are you in the over the 10% camp? I'm in the under the 10% camp for this sell-off. I might buy some additional stock tomorrow. Futures are looking very ugly again. The shorts are building, and if we do get a short covering rally it will be a big one. The bears are in control for now.

I have a feeling it's going to be more than 10%. If we do enter a recession, it might be 2000/2001 all over again. IMHO, the real support will come in the form of a hint at a rate cut. But just like in the previous recession, it will be temporary because they will realized that it will take a while for rate cuts to stimulate the economy. I will not look for a bottom until I see the USD/YEN finds a bottom or maybe make two bottoms.

 

[robo]

I have a feeling it's going to be more than 10%. If we do enter a recession, it might be 2000/2001 all over again. IMHO, the real support will come in the form of a hint at a rate cut. But just like in the previous recession, it will be temporary because they will realized that it will take a while for rate cuts to stimulate the economy. I will not look for a bottom until I see the USD/YEN finds a bottom or maybe make two bottoms.

Thanks for your opinion.

 

[robo]

Monday, March 05, 2007
200 EMA
The rut/ndx are now testing their 200 EMA's while the dow/spx need a bit more downside to do so. The reversion to the mean move is now essentially over and i am now expecting new highs shortly.
I am now close to getting a very rare buy signal in the Quarterly timeframe and so from here on out, my posts will have a decidedly bullish tone and if this offends some readers, i suggest you stick to the numerous bearish blogs out there that do an excellent job of it.
I see 1-2% risk for long positions at current levels with unlimited upside and conversely risk on the short side is now unlimited with very little "upside" left.

http://fibo-count.blogspot.com/

 

[FundSurfer]

Rally start - shorts cover - rally gains momentum - steam runs out as many not willing to jump back in the market - shorts sell - market declines...

Recipe for heartburn.

 

[clester]

Rally start - shorts cover - rally gains momentum - steam runs out as many not willing to jump back in the market - shorts sell - market declines...

Recipe for heartburn.

Fundsurfer,

What are your thoughts for the rest of the week. Are you leaning on staying put?

 

[FundSurfer]

I think the market is going to be choppy. I may try to make some plays but I've got to be a little more confident before jumping. I can handle high risk, I just try to make it well thought out risk and not gambling. My head is saying to sell this bounce, my heart is saying one more day. We all know the difference a day can make.

 

[SkiUtah]

Ayala, what is your take on the VIX?


11:30 am : Recent attempts on the part of sellers to keep their overbought argument front and center have been met by a renewed wave of buying interest, fueled in part by some short covering. As evidenced by a 1.2% surge on the Nasdaq to lead the majors on today's upward journey, Technology (+1.4%) continues to provide a notable floor of support.
Further underscoring the change in sentiment have been 11% declines on the VIX (CBOE Volatility Index) and the VXN (CBOE Nasdaq Volatility Index). Known as the "investor fear gauges," both spiking lower suggest investors are actively buying call options in anticipation that a short-term bottom has been put in place that will keep investors on the buying track. DJ30 +85.11 NASDAQ +27.75 SP500 +12.40 NASDAQ Dec/Adv/Vol 664/2183/770 mln NYSE Dec/Adv/Vol 621/2467/580 mln

 

[SkiUtah]

half hour later, and the news gets better....freakin' anomaly was this minor meltdown...

12:00 pm : Stocks are trading noticeably higher midday as investors, growing more cognizant of the fact that fundamentals simply have not changed significantly in the wake of the global sell-off, subscribe to the notion that stocks are oversold on a short-term basis.
With the tail wagging the dog of late, a rebound in Asian markets overnight has been welcome news for investors, especially amid concerns that an unwinding of the yen carry trade would lead to a liquidity crunch. Japan's Nikkei index rose 1.2% while Hong Kong's Hang Seng index surged 2.1%.
Also helping to quell worries about a global economic slowdown and sparking a wave of short-covering have been upbeat remarks out of Tokyo from U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. He said, "The global economy is more than sound... it's as strong in the last couple of years as I've seen in a lifetime... I see no downturn." He also noted that reforms in China will help mitigate market volatility and that global liquidity is high. Paulson's comments are more than offsetting former Fed Chairman Greenspan's latest assertion that there is a "one-third probability" of a U.S. recession this year.

 

[Birchtree]

Ben is going on the wire this afternoon. Strap me in. G forces could get heavy on the ride up. Snort.

 

[robo]

Rally start - shorts cover - rally gains momentum - steam runs out as many not willing to jump back in the market - shorts sell - market declines...

Recipe for heartburn.

Could be some wild days ahead.

Robo

Some comments from Fibo-count:

Tuesday, March 06, 2007
Retest/lower low coming up
Today's intraday sell signal, mkt internals and yesterday's untested after hours lows in the futures, lead me to believe there will be a retest/lower low in the next few days. The next decline could be the 5th wave in the 5 wave impluse i mentioned earlier. After this decline is over the mkt should move to new highs.

Posted by victor at 12:52 PM 0 comments Links to this post



Monday, March 05, 2007
200 EMA
The rut/ndx are now testing their 200 EMA's while the dow/spx need a bit more downside to do so. The reversion to the mean move is now essentially over and i am now expecting new highs shortly.
I am now close to getting a very rare buy signal in the Quarterly timeframe and so from here on out, my posts will have a decidedly bullish tone and if this offends some readers, i suggest you stick to the numerous bearish blogs out there that do an excellent job of it.
I see 1-2% risk for long positions at current levels with unlimited upside and conversely risk on the short side is now unlimited with very little "upside" left.

http://fibo-count.blogspot.com/

 

[robo]

SOME MARKET COMMENTS:


Playing this day by day in my brokerage account, and still long in the I fund in TSP. I still don't think the sky is falling. I voted under 10% and still feel that way. If we dip again close to 1360 I'm adding some more. 1370's have held up so far, but it would be nice to test 1360 or touch it by Friday.

One more day of gains would also be nice, ( recovering loses). Still not willing to add any more long-term money for now. However, I have added positions based on my opinion that 1360 S&P will hold during this sell-off.

That does not mean we still can't get a 10% correction in the fall or this summer or even next month. I just don't think we get it this time because so many think we will. Mr. Market rarely does what the herd thinks it will do. That's my opinion for now and it could change next week, but for now I wait.


Read Dave's comments below from yesterday. This is one of the reasons I think 1360 will hold. You are playing against the house! To many Bears, and too much liquidity for the Bears to bet against the house. Again, just my opinion and it could change tomorrow.

If the Bulls press tomorrow the Bears will have another very Bad Day. Let the battle continue and good luck to both!. I’m keeping most of my money out of fight until the trend is clearer. This could be a Dead Cat Bounce, or the start of a three day rally while the bears get squeezed. We shall know soon, but it's not clear enough for me to go 100% long.

Birchtree you should be watching Jimmy. He is jumping around, hitting those buttons, and SHOUTING, "BUY-BUY-BUY"!

BOTTOM LINE, I REMAIN CAUTIOUS.


Dave's comment's from yesterday:

We won’t engage in conspiracy theories. We’re aware of several things however. Paulson’s a Goldman Sachs guy--maybe I could stop there. He’s reenergized the president’s Working Group on Financial Markets [aka, the PPT]. Bernanke has often stated his willingness to print money to stem any severe financial market declines [“helicopter Ben”]. There’s a powerful array of fee-dependent financial institutions counting on bullish versus bearish conditions. You see, hear and read their bullish bias in the financial media everyday [after all we know who pays the bills, right?].
Taken together this makes any shorting attempts difficult to sustain as you’re betting against the house.

Have a pleasant evening.
http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php?id=349


Dave's comments from today:

After over a week of sharp losses the equity markets were much oversold and a countertrend rally was clearly in the cards. It occurred because markets that caused all the trouble to begin with [in Asia particularly] rallied. Furthermore, the crummy economic news of the day was completely ignored. This is what happens when markets get oversold and momentum builds directionally.

And, for those thinking of shorting, remember one thing: there’s a bullish empire and army loaded with plenty of cash arrayed against you.

May the force be with you.

Have a pleasant evening.

http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php?id=350





Some comments below from Gary:


BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Medical longs, Internet longs, Retail longs and Telecom longs. I covered the remainder of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and took some profits in my (EEM) short in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was very positive as the advance/decline line finished substantially higher, every sector rose and volume was heavy. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Today's overall market action was very bullish. The Fed's Plosser spoke to reporters after his speech. He said that he doesn't see sub-prime problems spilling over to the rest of the economy. He reiterated that the Fed is monitoring the situation carefully. Finally, he said he doesn't see the signs of a liquidity crisis developing. My intraday gauge of investor angst finished at relatively high levels given today’s sharp rally. Nikkei futures are indicating about an 81-point move higher on the open in Japan. The gains in the Broker/Dealer Index today were a big positive, given their exposure to sub-prime and emerging markets, as the stocks finished near session highs. Moreover, the upside trading collars were in effect for most of the final hour of trading. I suspect we could see more strength in the U.S. tomorrow morning from further gains in Asia and short-covering.

http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/

 

[ATCJeff]

SOME MARKET COMMENTS:


Playing this day by day in my brokerage account, and still long in the I fund in TSP. I still don't think the sky is falling. I voted under 10% and still feel that way. If we dip again close to 1360 I'm adding some more. 1370's have held up so far, but it would be nice to test 1360 or touch it by Friday.

One more day of gains would also be nice, ( recovering loses). Still not willing to add any more long-term money for now. However, I have added positions based on my opinion that 1360 S&P will hold during this sell-off.

That does not mean we still can't get a 10% correction in the fall or this summer or even next month. I just don't think we get it this time because so many think we will. Mr. Market rarely does what the herd thinks it will do. That's my opinion for now and it could change next week, but for now I wait.


Read Dave's comments below from yesterday. This is one of the reasons I think 1360 will hold. You are playing against the house! To many Bears, and too much liquidity for the Bears to bet against the house. Again, just my opinion and it could change tomorrow.

If the Bulls press tomorrow the Bears will have another very Bad Day. Let the battle continue and good luck to both!. I’m keeping most of my money out of fight until the trend is clearer. This could be a Dead Cat Bounce, or the start of a three day rally while the bears get squeezed. We shall know soon, but it's not clear enough for me to go 100% long.

Birchtree you should be watching Jimmy. He is jumping around, hitting those buttons, and SHOUTING, "BUY-BUY-BUY"!

BOTTOM LINE, I REMAIN CAUTIOUS.


Dave's comment's from yesterday:

We won’t engage in conspiracy theories. We’re aware of several things however. Paulson’s a Goldman Sachs guy--maybe I could stop there. He’s reenergized the president’s Working Group on Financial Markets [aka, the PPT]. Bernanke has often stated his willingness to print money to stem any severe financial market declines [“helicopter Ben”]. There’s a powerful array of fee-dependent financial institutions counting on bullish versus bearish conditions. You see, hear and read their bullish bias in the financial media everyday [after all we know who pays the bills, right?].
Taken together this makes any shorting attempts difficult to sustain as you’re betting against the house.

Have a pleasant evening.
http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php?id=349


Dave's comments from today:

After over a week of sharp losses the equity markets were much oversold and a countertrend rally was clearly in the cards. It occurred because markets that caused all the trouble to begin with [in Asia particularly] rallied. Furthermore, the crummy economic news of the day was completely ignored. This is what happens when markets get oversold and momentum builds directionally.

And, for those thinking of shorting, remember one thing: there’s a bullish empire and army loaded with plenty of cash arrayed against you.

May the force be with you.

Have a pleasant evening.

http://www.etfdigest.com/daveDaily.php?id=350





Some comments below from Gary:


BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished higher today on gains in my Medical longs, Internet longs, Retail longs and Telecom longs. I covered the remainder of my (IWM)/(QQQQ) hedges and took some profits in my (EEM) short in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market was very positive as the advance/decline line finished substantially higher, every sector rose and volume was heavy. Measures of investor anxiety were mixed into the close. Today's overall market action was very bullish. The Fed's Plosser spoke to reporters after his speech. He said that he doesn't see sub-prime problems spilling over to the rest of the economy. He reiterated that the Fed is monitoring the situation carefully. Finally, he said he doesn't see the signs of a liquidity crisis developing. My intraday gauge of investor angst finished at relatively high levels given today’s sharp rally. Nikkei futures are indicating about an 81-point move higher on the open in Japan. The gains in the Broker/Dealer Index today were a big positive, given their exposure to sub-prime and emerging markets, as the stocks finished near session highs. Moreover, the upside trading collars were in effect for most of the final hour of trading. I suspect we could see more strength in the U.S. tomorrow morning from further gains in Asia and short-covering.

http://hedgefundmgr.blogspot.com/

I love these cheerleaders. Now I can slept better tonight...

 

[Birchtree]

"Market internals are very strong right now and have shown great improvement since last week's panic selling".

http://www.safehaven.com/article-7091.htm

 

[merlin]

That was a nice read Birchtree.

 

[robo]

Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for Thursday 03/08/07


www.toddmarketforecast.com

Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.

DOW + 68 on 1600 net advances


NASDAQ COMP. + 13 on 650 net advances


SHORT TERM TREND Bullish

INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish



STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS:

On Thursday strength in Asia along with the ongoing oversold
condition propelled the market higher. At one point the Dow was up over
110 points, but then a bankruptcy rumor about a sub prime lender, New
Century Financial, caused some intra day selling. This stock closed
under 4 after having traded over 40 in September. Fears about the
unemployment number to be released on Friday may have caused some
investors to pull their bids.
Nevertheless, we were happy with the action. Volume was
acceptable. Breadth was excellent and we especially liked the fact that
almost every index closed above its close of Tuesday. This means we now
have a high above a previous high or an upward zig zag on the daily
charts. This is normally a good sign going forward.
One of the investment publications that we respect is Investor’s
Business Daily. That’s why we were a bit surprised when they said that
volume on the Tuesday rally was “anemic”. We totally disagree. It was
lower than the massive volume of the past five days, but it was
otherwise the best volume in two months. We bring this up because a
light volume rally would not be convincing and we were impressed by
Tuesday’s action.
We still think at least a partial retest is in the offing, but we
believe that the bottom has pretty much been seen on this latest
decline.

NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:

Initial claims came in at 328,000, less than the expected 335,000.
Tomorrow is the dreaded employment figures. Economists are expecting a
growth of 100,000 jobs. A figure significantly different will probably
cause a severe knee jerk.
On the stock front, A T & T was upgraded by A.G. Edwards and gained
3%. Bayer was upgraded by UBS and added 3%. Bon-Ton Stores and
Nordstroms rose 16% and 5% on solid same store sales. Ford was upgraded
by Credit Suisse and gained 4%. Men’s wearhouse jumped 9% after guiding
higher.
On the negative side, the aforementioned New Century Financial
dropped 27%. Costco and Fleetwood gave up 3% and 7% on earnings.

BOTTOM LINE:

Our S&P and NASDAQ intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.
Mutual fund investors should be in a 100% invested position.

Short term ETF traders are in cash. Stay there for now.

OTHER MARKETS
We are on a buy for bonds as of January 31.

We are on a sell on the dollar and a buy for the Euro as of Feb. 15.

We are on a sell for gold as of March 2nd.

We are on a buy for crude oil as of February 22.

We are bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S.,
Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.



http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/TODD.html

 

[Birchtree]

Fib retracement levels: .382 on Dow at 12,331, SPX at 1407, RUT at 786 and NYA 9074 have all been met today if we close on the positive.