Todd Market Forecast Stock Market Update for Thursday 03/01/07
www.toddmarketforecast.com
Available Mon- Friday after 6:00 p.m. Eastern, 3:00 Pacific.
DOW - 34 on 650 net declines
NASDAQ COMP. - 12 on 950 net advances
SHORT TERM TREND Bearish
INTERMEDIATE TERM TREND Bullish
STOCK MARKET ANALYSIS:
Over night in Japan, the Japanese Vice Minister of Finance stated
that the yen carry trade was not a one way street and hinted that higher
interest rates were on the way. This caused more selling around the
world and the Dow was down over 200 points in the first 15 minutes of
trading. It must be said that a lot of this weakness was the result of
stops being hit which forced the markets down a bit artificially.
So exactly what is the yen carry trade? Interest rates are very low
in Japan and speculators and aggressive investors world wide borrow
there and re-invest in higher returns such as bonds, stocks and even
real estate. Of course, a lot of that can be unwound if Japanese rates
rise. Also, since these loans are in yen, what happens if the yen rises
against other currencies? It means that you have to pay back more than
you borrowed which is the same as a rate increase. A sharp yen rally can
cause a lot of liquidation of assets such as stocks.
On a more cheerful note, a recent Harvard study says that
historically, these types of smashes occur about every six months, but
we haven’t had one since March 24, 2003. So what happened after that?
The market bottomed five days later then rallied for seven months.
I think we are near a tradable bottom, at least time wise, but it’s
probably going to take a few days for things to calm down and begin the
next uptrend. Stay tuned.
NEWS AND FUNDAMENTALS:
The ISM number, which measures national manufacturing, came in at
52.3 for February. This was higher than January’s 49.3 and the consensus
50.0. Personal income rose 1.0%, more than the expected rise of 0.3%.
Personal spending added 0.5% which was more than the consensus rise of
0.4%. The core PCE price index gained 0.3% again more than the expected
0.2% and makes the year over year figure 2.31%. Finally, initial claims
were 338,000, more than the consensus 335,000.
On the stock front, Apple was upgraded by Lehman and gained 3%.
Cooper Tire and Rubber jumped 16% on increased sales. EchoStar rose 5%
on earnings. New Century Financial gained 3% after an upgrade by UBS.
On the negative side, Ciena dropped 10% on expense concerns.
Circuit City lost 4% after a downgrade by Piper Jaffray. Constellation
Brands and Natco Group tumbled 15% and 10% after guiding lower.
BOTTOM LINE:
Our S&P and NASDAQ intermediate term systems are on a buy signal.
Mutual fund investors should be in a 100% invested position.
Short term ETF traders are in cash. Stay there for now.
OTHER MARKETS
We are on a buy for bonds as of January 31.
We are on a sell on the dollar and a buy for the Euro as of Feb. 15.
We are on a buy for gold as of February 21.
We are on a buy for crude oil as of February 22.
We are bullish for all major world markets, including those of the U.S.,
Britain, Canada, Germany, France and Japan.
STEPHEN TODD
A SHORT BIOGRAPHY
Editor and publisher of the Todd Market Forecast, a monthly stock
market newsletter with an included nightly hotline.
Steve has published articles on the stock market in the following
publications: Barron’s, Stock Market Magazine, Futures Magazine, The
National Educator, and others.
His stock market commentary is heard on the following stations: CNBC,
Bloomberg, CNNfn, Associated Press Radio, Business Radio Network, CKNW
in Vancouver, British Columbia, KFWB, Los Angeles and ROBTV in Toronto,
Ontario.
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