amoeba's Account Talk

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amoeba said:
Well - probably for the worse - I just pulled another 25% off the table (now 69G; 6F;8C;8S;9I); while coolhand went all in on burnt toast (I-fund); and all this because I forewent an IFT on thursday thinking that the mid-day trade was indicating stable downward resistence; I was in range of recovery - now - being at the midpoint between the 50 and 200 DMA everything is in question. Of course, the last hour this past thursday all the markets fell off the table; and selling continued friday with a vengeance. Talk about a sucker's rally and me being a sucker.

Just more for the suckers to think about; greece and europe are not the only problems with the markets - our economy just plain sucks and is being supported by green paper and hot air. I think the stimuli have reached the end of their ropes; and contagion of fear will spread here, to the housing market this summer.

I see nothing but pain in the near term. I hope I'm wrong, but, as my TSP allocation shows, I'm 75% sure I'm not.
Click to expand...

Tremendous exchange. Cannot express the future any better. Just plain luck mixed with some "stick to ittiveness" that some are doing better than others in the TSPtalk ratings. Maybe I'll hit it on the nose soon and get to 10% earnings. As for the world's economy right now you con not have said it any better. It is a mess with a dash of manipulation thrown in. At least I can find some people on this forum with the same thoughts as myself during this upheaval. :cool:
 
Boghie said:
Amoeba,

It's been odd that two folks who invest so differently are going to end up with the same result.

Not a good time - for anyone.

I look at those who I have followed and all I see is carnage. Only a few got it right. One is FuturesTrader - and, I think he was saved from jumping back in by the IFT trade limit. CorePuncher made the sweet move of the month. Coolhand was masterful, but his last was thrown 'just a bit outside':p

Everybody seems to have blown their IFTs. I made a hash of mine.

For those that are in I would not want to lock in losses - excepting in the I Fund. That thing is burnt toast. A cornerback that fell and watched the long bomb touchdown from the ground.
Click to expand...

The other half of the Bohgie Amoeba exchange.:cool:
 
first time changed IFT - why eat burnt toast?

amoeba said:
Well - probably for the worse - I just pulled another 25% off the table (now 69G; 6F;8C;8S;9I); while coolhand went all in on burnt toast (I-fund); and all this because I forewent an IFT on thursday thinking that the mid-day trade was indicating stable downward resistence; I was in range of recovery - now - being at the midpoint between the 50 and 200 DMA everything is in question. Of course, the last hour this past thursday all the markets fell off the table; and selling continued friday with a vengeance. Talk about a sucker's rally and me being a sucker.

Just more for the suckers to think about; greece and europe are not the only problems with the markets - our economy just plain sucks and is being supported by green paper and hot air. I think the stimuli have reached the end of their ropes; and contagion of fear will spread here, to the housing market this summer.

I see nothing but pain in the near term. I hope I'm wrong, but, as my TSP allocation shows, I'm 75% sure I'm not.
Click to expand...

I was reading my own post and had an epiphany.....forget discipline (i.e., reverse DCA trade down in declining market).....why do I need to eat any more burnt toast? Now, I'm not predicting; I KNOW what is happening, and I KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN (at least for the next week). It is not pretty....it is a re-evaluation of all aspects of the world market. SO I changed my IFT and now have
86% G, 6%F, and 2% each of CSI (i.e., as of yesterday COB, IFT before 9 am, 5/17/10 - and thank you TOM for fixing this).

I've read some of the recent exchange, and, I would caution anyone on putting a whole bunch of hot mustard on S fund; if you track the technicals on the smalls, you'll see these are only positive because they are the most overvalued; I think S-fund too - will approach its 200 DMAs, just as I-fund has, and just as C-fund will. Remember that, during this cyclical bear, the S and I funds not only breached - but stayed well below their 200 DMAs for extended periods of time. Not to say that this is a foregone conclusion - but something major will have to change in the world economy, in the USA economy, and/or the major symptoms of its ills (too much credit, overpriced housing, too much dependency on government stimuli) in order to change my long view.

The doubts have been there a long time. Now they are being believed. The problems need to be addressed fundamentally before the big money starts flowing back to the market.
 
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Re: first time changed IFT - why eat burnt toast?

amoeba said:
I was reading my own post and had an epiphany.....forget discipline (i.e., reverse DCA trade down in declining market).....why do I need to eat any more burnt toast? Now, I'm not predicting; I KNOW what is happening, and I KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN (at least for the next week). It is not pretty....it is a re-evaluation of all aspects of the world market. SO I changed my IFT and now have
86% G, 6%F, and 2% each of CSI (i.e., as of yesterday COB, IFT before 9 am, 5/17/10 - and thank you TOM for fixing this).

I've read some of the recent exchange, and, I would caution anyone on putting a whole bunch of hot mustard on S fund; if you track the technicals on the smalls, you'll see these are only positive because they are the most overvalued; I think S-fund too - will approach its 200 DMAs, just as I-fund has, and just as C-fund will. Remember that, during this cyclical bear, the S and I funds not only breached - but stayed well below their 200 DMAs for extended periods of time. Not to say that this is a foregone conclusion - but something major will have to change in the world economy, in the USA economy, and/or the major symptoms of its ills (too much credit, overpriced housing, too much dependency on government stimuli) in order to change my long view.

The doubts have been there a long time. Now they are being believed. The problems need to be addressed fundamentally before the big money starts flowing back to the market.
Click to expand...

A very reasonable position. This could be that rare exception when sentiment, (which is getting really bearish) doesn't matter.
 
Next stop 1,000, selling opportunity tomorrow?

Holy moly guacamole:

Why do I have 6% in the market? There is no baby, nothing but bathwater, forget the IFT limit, forget the deadcat bounce, this market is headed MUCH LOWER, there are what? 10 more trading days and you think the markets will be higher. What the flipping heck makes you think that?

200 DMA in the SPY cut through like melted butter. Look at that last 1/2 hour. Next stop would technically be the 1,050 or less low that we had in January, but that was after the 200/50 DMA's crossed at 900. 1,000 is the most optimistic bottom I see; if not - let's lobby for a gold fund. Nothing else will be safe.

We are now past short selling. We are in margin call territory. Possibly panic selling (i.e., minus 10% or more in a single session).

The big risk takers will hold for tomorrow's German vote reaction, but honestly, I think that's priced in - and if it comes in positive - there will be nothing but selling on the bounce. So tomorrow may be the best selling opportunity in awhile, and that's no sure thing.

If birch or other 100% lingerers in equity funds in their TSPs think different, I sure would like to hear why.
 
Re: Next stop 1,000, selling opportunity tomorrow?

amoeba said:
Holy moly guacamole:

Why do I have 6% in the market? There is no baby, nothing but bathwater, forget the IFT limit, forget the deadcat bounce, this market is headed MUCH LOWER, there are what? 10 more trading days and you think the markets will be higher. What the flipping heck makes you think that?
Click to expand...

Okay, I'll ask. Who are you talking too?
 
Re: Next stop 1,000, selling opportunity tomorrow?

coolhand said:
Okay, I'll ask. Who are you talking too?
Click to expand...


as my message said:

"If birch or other 100% lingerers in equity funds in their TSPs think different, I sure would like to hear why. "

I guess there are no takers. It must be a big secret why anyone would ride this collapse down to the bottom. Go ahead, make my day. Tell me....this market is so low that the proximo of bear markets, Mr. 19% in 2008, poolhand, has waded in. If memory serves, that year about 8 of us beat the G-fund, and I wasn't one of them.

While some people can do it, most of us, me included - are lucky to escape with their scivies. Tomorrow is another day....right now...the tsp.gov website is down so I can't even pull my 6% out of crispy toast. If there's a big deadcat - which I doubt - I betcha the man jumps out of the pool, and I'll be right behind him.

right now its rank #82 - movin up in rank - and down in return (1.58%, a few slots above the G-fund). Jeepers
 
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I'll bite Amoeba, I'll bite - and I'm in a preservation holding (beta of about .30)...

All I can say is that a 12% correction is not a crash. In fact, we might just sit in a stupid trading range for the next two years. The only money to be made might be inside a 10% - 20% range.

Birch will get a belly laugh at us types if da Boyz start buying up at the bottom of the range.

Personally, to me its kinda dumb to play range games. Timing the market generally guides one to the Alpo Meal Deal Retirement diet. But, that may be all we get in the current dufus atmosphere.

Or, we could just crash:)
 
Re: Next stop 1,000, selling opportunity tomorrow?

amoeba said:
as my message said:

"If birch or other 100% lingerers in equity funds in their TSPs think different, I sure would like to hear why. "
Click to expand...

i felt sure about something big happening so i went from 60/40 out to allin about two weeks ago (perfect timing) and i'm not getting out, i'll tell you why...

'cause it's all funny money cuz, if the worst happens nothin will be worth nothin, but if things go 'normal' again then i'm squatin' in tall cotton, bring on the bushes, roots, and berries. i'm good at that.

i had a 50/50 chance when i made the move,, either right or wrong, heck that's better odds than blackjack in vegas but without the free drinks or expensive women, got any of those? neither do i.

either way i'll make do. although lately i've been making do do, in my sticky pants.
 
Re: Next stop 1,000, selling opportunity tomorrow?

amoeba said:
right now its rank #82 - movin up in rank - and down in return (1.58%, a few slots above the G-fund). Jeepers
Click to expand...


amoeba, At least you are on the positive side of ZERO. Begining of the month I was #63. Today I am #214. That flash in front of your eyes was me falling fast. :nuts:
 
amoeba,

We all have choices to make. Sometimes the bear is chasing us and sometimes we are chasing the bear. Hindsight being what it is I had a choice to make on 4/23. I was #57 and 11.27% on the tracker. Do I jump out of the pond or roll the dice and stay put because May has on average been a good month for investing. I played the odds. It looks like I rolled snake eyes. If I had gotten out back then I would be #5 on the tracker today. Hopefully I can regain the losses and move on. Good luck and congrats on currently being #82.
 
yeah im down from 18 to um... id rather not say lol and im getting close to being negative for the first time in a loong time :( but i get to buy more shares at a lower price, hey there is always a postive!
 
Birchtree said:
"In our view the 14-month rally since March 2009 is over and a major decline is underway. The recent decline has been extreme in the short-term, and some sharp rallies are likely. However, we believe that none of these rallies will hold and that the eventual market bottom will be far lower than today's level."

http://pragcap.com/market-decline-is-based-on-more-than-fear
Click to expand...

After posting this you are still going to Hold your current allocation ?

:sick:

"However, we believe that none of these rallies will hold and that the eventual market bottom will be far lower than today's level."
 
Of course I'm going to hold my current positions - I'm just offering confirmation of thoughts so amoeba is not out there all alone. I personally don't believe a word from that article.
 
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