amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

silly talk for silly times

ooops E daisy, time for sum poetree:

thumper dumper humper do;
tell me tell me tell me true;
what is it like being at #132?;
better than being at #100 times 2!!!!


OKOKOK - I'm no edgarallenpoe.........

Soooooooooooo:

Anyone out there know what Germany will do tomorrow? I do!!! (and so does most of the rest of the traders).

Nothin. let the greeks swing from their own rope.

In the meantime............the same store sales were mixed, as one might expect with the slow jobs growth.........and tomorrow's jobs report ain't gonna be pretty enough to change things much.

Here's to sittin on a big keg of bone dry powder ready for the 200 DMA in whatever of our TSP funds hits it first; well - I didn't mean the I fund - which broke through it like butter a few days ago. But something else maybe. as CH said recently....patience.....wisdom.

 

[amoeba]

Wwell whaddayaknow!!!!!

Jobs report big surprise.......and market drop flattens.....I violated JTH's "cardinal rule" for the umpteenth time this yr; and threw 10% into the C fund; sort of a hedge on the possibility that the wknd ECB vote will resolve.

Of course, we all know that the 200 DMA is ~1,090; and when it breaks it can go a couple percentage points below it. My inclination is that my risk/reward are balanced, at about 0.4% either way. This is within my tolerance to hold, and double down if the market falls below 1,050 by mid month.

I reserve the right to change my mind.......

PS. I made a total terrible call on the jobs report; but whatever, nice to make the right IFT strategy even if for the wrong reason.

 

[Steadygain]

Yeah it's pretty flipped out -- that 3 or 4 months from now when we're below 7,000 :worried:

Everyone will look back at this time and think 'WOW, If I only knew'.


You're alright man --- I enjoy you.

 

[amoeba]

Wwell whaddayaknow!!!!!

Jobs report big surprise.......and market drop flattens.....I violated JTH's "cardinal rule" for the umpteenth time this yr; and threw 10% into the C fund; ....
QUOTE]


And I missed the TSP.gov cutoff deadline by seconds, apparently, so it wasn't recorded....and I cancelled it. So 95%C and 5% F continues.....as does my current rank (5/7/10), below:

#82

I will look for a less emotional time to re-enter the market, next week....I may have missed "the bottom"; and then again, it's not so bad to get on the train when it is already going uphill.

 

[amoeba]

ranking update

ranks for COB 5/7/10 just posted:

#60

That's my highest rank since mid-january when I was in the 20s or so. Next week should show the biggest one-day moves in equities in a long, long time.

As for the direction, I'm not real sure which way it will go, or how the week will end up (or down) and don't know anyone else who does.

 

[amoeba]

ranking update

no msg

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: ranking update

ranks for COB 5/7/10 just posted:

#60

That's my highest rank since mid-january when I was in the 20s or so. Next week should show the biggest one-day moves in equities in a long, long time.

As for the direction, I'm not real sure which way it will go, or how the week will end up (or down) and don't know anyone else who does.

I'm right behind ya. Gonna be a 3-5% up day and I'll sell.

 

[nasa1974]

Re: ranking update

ranks for COB 5/7/10 just posted:

#60

That's my highest rank since mid-january when I was in the 20s or so. Next week should show the biggest one-day moves in equities in a long, long time.

As for the direction, I'm not real sure which way it will go, or how the week will end up (or down) and don't know anyone else who does.

amoeba, I started the week ranked 63 by COB Friday I had fallen to 182.

 

[amoeba]

US index futures sharply down

I'm right behind ya. Gonna be a 3-5% up day and I'll sell.

well if that is so, I does NOT look like it will be monday. US index futures (SPY, QQQQ, etc.) are down sharply. It is not shaping up pretty; but all this could change sunday (europe's monday).

And, as you imply, any rally may be sold; and that could be in the middle of the day.

 

[Boghie]

You'll be proud of me Amoeba.

But, didn't bail to the Lilly Pad.

Instead moved to the L2010 Fund - with at least a point in each of the other equity, bond, and Lifetime funds. This is my last full IFT. The point in each of those funds should allow me to reallocate daily using SqualeBear's '<1%' technique.

Watch out.

Coming to get you!

 

[amoeba]

You'll be proud of me Amoeba.

But, didn't bail to the Lilly Pad.

Instead moved to the L2010 Fund - with at least a point in each of the other equity, bond, and Lifetime funds. This is my last full IFT. The point in each of those funds should allow me to reallocate daily using SqualeBear's '<1%' technique.

Watch out.

Coming to get you!

That you may - however - in watching the trade today, I saw stability after the open, no evidence of mid-day rally selling, so I went 60% in on my first IFT, hoping to catch momentum tomorrow........but it might not work......in addition to the european thing, the markets have been overbought and didn't reach a true correction on some indices, and it may be a pause, before a storm

Either way, I'll be prepared to take my lumps, cut my gains short, if they occur, or double-down/reallocate at the <1095 level in the S&P.

 

[amoeba]

That you may - however - in watching the trade today, I saw stability after the open, no evidence of mid-day rally selling, so I went 60% in on my first IFT, hoping to catch momentum tomorrow........but it might not work......in addition to the european thing, the markets have been overbought and didn't reach a true correction on some indices, and it may be a pause, before a storm

Either way, I'll be prepared to take my lumps, cut my gains short, if they occur, or double-down/reallocate at the <1095 level in the S&P.

Actually, I am in 75% - since I musta made an error in the autotracker:

Current allocation at COB = 25%F; 15%C; 25%S; 35%I.

Tomorrow; if a) market UP ~1% or more I am out; if b) down 2% or less I will double down; if c) it is down 3%, I will re-assess and allocate or not as appropriate.

 

[amoeba]

Asia reversed:

Down sharply. probably >2%; man, that's the fastest money I ever will lose. staying up late to prep for a meeting wednesday. I won't miss tomorrow's deadline. Any severe gap in US markets I will sell and come back another month. Screw this. You win Birchtree, or, wait a minute, you lose!!!! Just like me.....anyway. Hard come, easy go on that tough 1.5% last month. As clark griswold once said when aunt edna died:

"damnitanyway! she couldn't weigh more than 90 pounds?"

 

[amoeba]

well, let's see; I lost 1/2 percent today:

Down to rank ~#127. Return ~3.52%. From a high of 4.87% on 4/16. Great. That's what? 3 weeks? I missed the big day and got in below the 50 dma's (200 dma in the case of EFA), but no matter, market feels like it has to go lower.

Thank you. Thank you very much. Where are all you buyers who jumped in monday? are you out? are you in? or are you just trying to torment me and take my money? now I'm getting angry. I know who you are.

YOU KILLED KENNY!!!!! YOU BASTARDS!!!!

Now that I have your attention; or maybe I don't; initial trading is pressing yet lower in Asia; and I'm just getting the feeling that someone is going to tighten the credit screws and bring anything upward to a halt.

That said - - - I am staying in - - - in fact, I doubled down and put another 20% to work. 5% F, 30% C, 30%S, 35% dog (I-fund).

Monthly upward bail target (.75% from beginning, or 1.25% from today) and downward bail target (-2% from buy date) remain in effect. I reserve the right to change my mind. I said that once before and screwed myself. So I probably shouldn't do it.

Saving grace of all of this is that I moved another 0.3% closer to Birchtree, goosing coolhand at the moment. Such fun. Amoeba out.

 

[amoeba]

5/12/10

Had a meeting in Oakland all day:

I knew I'd hit my bail target but no time to IFT. Anyway, I gained a couple ranks (#123); and reached this year's high in return (5.08%); which is right there in my bail area.

I guess I'll break JTH's cardinal rule and look at how the fund tracking indices open up tomorrow, before making any decision. Consecutive huge up days; especially in the I-fund, would be time to cha-ching!!!!

I said I wouldn't get greedy, but I might break that rule too....reason is, that when the gettings are good, its good, and when it's bad - it can be really bad....and really risky....and that calls for some bench-warming on the sidelines. Anyway....Asia is gapping up again.....looks like goodness all over again.

 

[nnuut]

I hope so amoeba!!!

 

[amoeba]

I just locked in a loss; I missed my upward bail target (+.75%) due to work:

Now I'm at the downward bail target (-2.00%) and need to reduce. I know the market has been down 7/9 sessions; but I sense a fundamental change here. That is, this bailout/stimulus/moneyprinting maneuver is being met with skepticism; which is what I always had - but the market wasn't buying it.

Now what? Me thinks a retest, or lower, of 1,065 in the S&P. Now - that could happen next week, and it could go up to the top of the trading range (1,170+) in the next two weeks. Which is an issue because of our 2 IFT limit.

So where does that leave me? Forced to take a stop loss. I try to keep myself from selling on down days - - - but when they come in succession with accelerating losses - - - I can only take so much.

I'm expecting a 100 rank drop today. This is all someone else's fault except my own.
(not)

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

It's been odd that two folks who invest so differently are going to end up with the same result.

Not a good time - for anyone.

I look at those who I have followed and all I see is carnage. Only a few got it right. One is FuturesTrader - and, I think he was saved from jumping back in by the IFT trade limit. CorePuncher made the sweet move of the month. Coolhand was masterful, but his last was thrown 'just a bit outside'

Everybody seems to have blown their IFTs. I made a hash of mine.

For those that are in I would not want to lock in losses - excepting in the I Fund. That thing is burnt toast. A cornerback that fell and watched the long bomb touchdown from the ground.

 

[amoeba]

Amoeba,

It's been odd that two folks who invest so differently are going to end up with the same result.

Not a good time - for anyone.

I look at those who I have followed and all I see is carnage. Only a few got it right. One is FuturesTrader - and, I think he was saved from jumping back in by the IFT trade limit. CorePuncher made the sweet move of the month. Coolhand was masterful, but his last was thrown 'just a bit outside'

Everybody seems to have blown their IFTs. I made a hash of mine.

For those that are in I would not want to lock in losses - excepting in the I Fund. That thing is burnt toast. A cornerback that fell and watched the long bomb touchdown from the ground.

Well - probably for the worse - I just pulled another 25% off the table (now 69G; 6F;8C;8S;9I); while coolhand went all in on burnt toast (I-fund); and all this because I forewent an IFT on thursday thinking that the mid-day trade was indicating stable downward resistence; I was in range of recovery - now - being at the midpoint between the 50 and 200 DMA everything is in question. Of course, the last hour this past thursday all the markets fell off the table; and selling continued friday with a vengeance. Talk about a sucker's rally and me being a sucker.

Just more for the suckers to think about; greece and europe are not the only problems with the markets - our economy just plain sucks and is being supported by green paper and hot air. I think the stimuli have reached the end of their ropes; and contagion of fear will spread here, to the housing market this summer.

I see nothing but pain in the near term. I hope I'm wrong, but, as my TSP allocation shows, I'm 75% sure I'm not.

 

[Boghie]

Well - probably for the worse - I just pulled another 25% off the table (now 69G; 6F;8C;8S;9I); while coolhand went all in on burnt toast (I-fund). Talk about a sucker's rally and me being a sucker.

I see nothing but pain in the near term. I hope I'm wrong, but, as my TSP allocation shows, I'm 75% sure I'm not.

CoolHand is 100% in the 'S Fund' - nada in the burnt toast we call the 'I Fund'.

And, I bet we have a return to prosperity in the 'S Fund' soon. Within a few points. Maybe even Monday or Tuesday onward. The charty things seem to demonstrate dip buying. Locking in losses when the charty things seem to show a bottom is predicting doom.

Right now I wouldn't be in the market timing business. The spread is too narrow for slow folk like us to make the market.