amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

Holy crap:

What the hell was that all about friday? I didn't even have time to think, with 8 hours travel; I leave for one business day beginning at 3:30 am and it's through the floor? I had been bailing daily, but paused for this one day to pack bags.

Which of you did this to me?

Oh, that's right, it was my decision.

Back to discipline, 10% bail posted for monday. Will keep 60% in if this is temporary. If 1190 holds - will limit bail to 2/3 G-F by end of month.

 

[amoeba]

Well - now I believe I am now at my original monthly target, not the raised one, but things have changed.....people reacted modestly to GS securities fraud (and related insider trading).....and there is talk on the boob toob about SEC not being able to prevail. I think it is worse than the initial reaction. But that won't be known till later. I'm not sure that there are "others". And can't say that there are not.

I would say, with the after hours "beats" on IBM, and more financials and tech earnings to follow this week (including GS), that we are in a short term "hold" at worst, and a possible buy for those with IFT's left (not me). I let loose 10% on the hope of a bounce that didn't happen, but tomorrow is another day.

 

[amoeba]

Asia opened up strongly after IBM's earnings. An up day expected tomorrow for all TSP funds. I expect this to approach the ~1,210 level on the S&P by friday, especially we see some basic economic data support such as declining continuing claims.

 

[Birchtree]

I like it when you talk that way.

 

[amoeba]

Asia opened up strongly after IBM's earnings. An up day expected tomorrow for all TSP funds. I expect this to approach the ~1,210 level on the S&P by friday, especially we see some basic economic data support such as declining continuing claims.

well - I was expecting more than 1% and a mere 3:1 advancers so far; and the high volume indicates selling into the rally - in any case - I reduced to 51% equity funds (17% each CSI), in the hope that the 1,220 bail target will still be reached before May 1. If we stay in the 1,180-1,210 range, I will put it back in May, or do that <1% thing every other day like, who is it? tataberto? a few people did it on the way up.

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

We are at 1207.
The market is making its move - now...

Right now businesses are demonstrating large YoY gains. In a way it is a gaming of the system. I would rather see 2007/2010 YoY gains. Last year was a crash. Not a fair comparison. However, most companies are projecting good future earnings as well. So what can one do.

Normally, May initiates the doldrums. In a normal market there is a saying to 'Go away in May'. There may not be a point to be made in May. Or, for that matter June, July, August, and September. October is a rather scary month to be invested.

Personally, I like your drawdown technique – but, now?

 

[amoeba]

Amoeba,

We are at 1207.
The market is making its move - now...

Right now businesses are demonstrating large YoY gains. In a way it is a gaming of the system. I would rather see 2007/2010 YoY gains. Last year was a crash. Not a fair comparison. However, most companies are projecting good future earnings as well. So what can one do.

Normally, May initiates the doldrums. In a normal market there is a saying to 'Go away in May'. There may not be a point to be made in May. Or, for that matter June, July, August, and September. October is a rather scary month to be invested.

Personally, I like your drawdown technique – but, now?

it's just some dry powder.....again, the technicals are extreme; think about it; more than 3 months above the 20 DMA? won't happen. And, the earnings, to a large extent are driven by stimuli for the financials, and gizmo craze for the techs - a cyclical thing. As far as seasonality, I hardly see investors betting on history repeating that. We've had crashes in April or at least March, before, and multiple times (not just 2009); Do I think that is coming? No. But I do think we'll have at least 3 more 5%+ corrections this year.

Can I time that? probably not. but 1,220 and 2+ months above the d20 DMA is rich; put the low ^vix on top of that and what do we have?

Complacency.

Right now, we're in untested territory for macroeconomics; relatively high unemployment, delinquency rates on mortgages, and, therefore, no inflation. At least not yet.

As for tomorrow I, for one, am hoping for both lower new and continuing job claims, and a SPY at 1,220 sooner rather than later. My bail target will be hit, and I'll see ya next month.

 

[amoeba]

I'm continuing my role in trying to lead this site in # of IFT's:

Today's reduction of 9% reflects the market's lack of reaction to good earnings and cooling of GS fears, the even advance/decline line relative to yesterday indicating profit taking, one more day beyond the 20 DMA (which we must hit); and, most importantly, apprehension about the job numbers tomorrow.

What will they be? Will there be revisions? Frankly - I think they will surprise to the upside (i.e., lower new and continuing claims), and will push the market 1% higher to the monthly peak tomorrow, somewhere around 1,215-1,220 in the S&P. In that case I will bail.

But I could be wrong, and if the market instead begins a pull back to the 20 DMA (1,185), I will have had caught the peak, and will just average down further for the rest of the month, and do some knife catching in early May.

 

[JTH]

Amoeba, I just goosed you on the tracker,

 

[amoeba]

JTH's last IFT seems to be holding up......, and I'm lingering in I fund hoping for a last gasp......but alas.....Asia's gap down suggests that it is not going to be tomorrow:

And, now I'm wondering if the other indices will follow. Finger on the button, especially now. I wonder what tom's latest commentary is? I suspect similar. I'm going to read it now.......

 

[JTH]

JTH's last IFT seems to be holding up......, and I'm lingering in I fund hoping for a last gasp......but alas.....Asia's gap down suggests that it is not going to be tomorrow:

And, now I'm wondering if the other indices will follow. Finger on the button, especially now. I wonder what tom's latest commentary is? I suspect similar. I'm going to read it now.......

My friend, The I-Fund is dead with little hope for recovery anytime soon, perhaps for the year. If money is going to flow anywhere it will be in the American Market's.

The top 5 have an average .60% in the I-Fund, while the bottom 5 have an average 40%, that should speak volumes.

 

[amoeba]

A couple more big down days like this one will make more sense technically than seeing 1,200 for a third time this month; after making one more average out move (minus 9%, 33% equity funds remaining), I took a look at the recent IFT's and the strategies are all over the place; people moving all in, all out, in between, it looks like mass confusion.

The job claims numbers came in a little worse, but within statistical noise, so I'm not sure that factored much into today's drop; rather - the rally seems tired and that feeling seems to be broadening. I'll take a look at the advance/declines and some other daily factors to see if I can see something through the haze.

Tom's commentary, which noted the wedge, seemed to imply a breakout up; but reading his info - I reached the opposite conclusion, namely - that the S&P must at least go through the 20 DMA (now ~1,186) and maybe to the midpoint of the rising trading range he shows (~1,150). Breaching 1,200 again before May? (don't think so, or even 1,220 (highly doubtful) ? But if for some reason that happens, it means the correction didn't - I'll bail - and come back in very soon thereafter with some fresh powder and 2 more IFT's.

 

[amoeba]

A couple more big down days like this one will make more sense technically than seeing 1,200 for a third time this month -----

Breaching 1,200 again before May? (don't think so'....

.

I said the above famous last words at noon yesterday....and here we are again, with 6 more trading days left.....and me weighed down with 11% I-fund. At some point - the divergence of I and C fund prices has to stop; I know I had been talking about an inevitable return of the C-fund to it's 20 dma at least, pointing out that this hadn't happened in at least 5 years. Curious - I had to look back to 1997-8 dot-com run-up to find anything similar.....and it didn't exceed this last 8 weeks' runup by much.

So the pullback will happen. I intend NOT to be in for it. Birchtree may gloat, but not for long.

 

[amoeba]

.....I know I had been talking about an inevitable return of the C-fund to it's 20 dma at least, pointing out that this hadn't happened in at least 5 years. Curious - I had to look back to 1997-8 dot-com run-up to find anything similar.....and it didn't exceed this last 8 weeks' runup by much.

So the pullback will happen. I intend NOT to be in for it. Birchtree may gloat, but not for long.

Reduced 8% more; now I am in only 25% (8C,8S,9I); if - for some ungodly reason, any of the funds reach year-to-date highs before May, I will ditch them like a cheap.....well.....you know.

No ninth week of gains. No way. No how.

 

[Boghie]

Reduced 8% more; now I am in only 25% (8C,8S,9I); if - for some ungodly reason, any of the funds reach year-to-date highs before May, I will ditch them like a cheap.....well.....you know.

No ninth week of gains. No way. No how.

Why?

We are still 23% under the highs. And we have to grow 27% to reach em. That does not include the growth that must occur to revert to mean.

Personally, I think we will crap out as well. But I'm not the sharpest tack in the batch. Me thinks I will wait till the market corrects for a few/three days or so before I head back into the Lilly Pad Wilderness...

 

[amoeba]

The bigger they are, the farther they fall.

Why?

We are still 23% under the highs. And we have to grow 27% to reach em. That does not include the growth that must occur to revert to mean.

Personally, I think we will crap out as well. But I'm not the sharpest tack in the batch. Me thinks I will wait till the market corrects for a few/three days or so before I head back into the Lilly Pad Wilderness...

I would never, ever, use the market "high" as something that it is going towards. In reality, those pre dot-com bust, pre housing-bust, pre-9/11 bust, and so forth "highs" were super over extended, and made no sense.

What I'm saying here, is that a small correction (actually several) of 5-10% happens every year, they always,always, will defeat the 20 DMA, even in the bullest of bull markets. A ninth week of gains, and a ninth week of extending past the 20 DMA without even touching it; hasn't happened (and I don't mean in the last few years, I mean, like, not ever).

8 weeks above the 20 DMA happened once, in the peak of the dot-com boom. Most of the time (not all), when there is a hiatus, the drop down is precipitous when it has climbed.

The bigger they are, the farther they fall.

Could it reach 1220 next week? Sure. But I'll have 2 IFTs the week following if I'm wrong. It's called risk management.

 

[Birchtree]

The 200 wk MA is 1224 - we'll clear that on Monday. The 61.8% retrace is 1229 - we may clear that Monday also. Cash is flowing like water into the market - wait until you see the parabolic panic buy side.

 

[Boghie]

Re: The bigger they are, the farther they fall.

I would never, ever, use the market "high" as something that it is going towards. In reality, those pre dot-com bust, pre housing-bust, pre-9/11 bust, and so forth "highs" were super over extended, and made no sense.

Don't get too excited with the pre-* busts...

There was no pre-9/11 bust. We were just begining to pull out of the dotCom bubble. I know, I had just reallocated to a heavy C/S/I holding because the market seemed to be in an early correction period - like March/April 2009. Then, three very large and explosive Black Swans flew into some very important buildings.

Anyone who couldn't read the dotCom and CrappyCredit bubbles was spending too much time in the bubbly. Those were large extensions. Easy for the sober to spot.

What I'm saying here, is that a small correction (actually several) of 5-10% happens every year, they always,always, will defeat the 20 DMA, even in the bullest of bull markets. A ninth week of gains, and a ninth week of extending past the 20 DMA without even touching it; hasn't happened (and I don't mean in the last few years, I mean, like, not ever).

8 weeks above the 20 DMA happened once, in the peak of the dot-com boom. Most of the time (not all), when there is a hiatus, the drop down is precipitous when it has climbed.

The bigger they are, the farther they fall.

Could it reach 1220 next week? Sure. But I'll have 2 IFTs the week following if I'm wrong. It's called risk management.

Here, Amoeba, you are talking about a pure 'market timing' strategy. A tight one. This form of market timing cannot be accomplished within our structure. You have two IFTs and broad indexes. Personally, I don't think anyone can successfully 'market time' these small bumps. Kinda like the 'fact' that everybody wins in Las Vegas - but the hotels kept going up:nuts:

 

[amoeba]

Re: The bigger they are, the farther they fall.

Don't get too excited with the pre-* busts...

There was no pre-9/11 bust. We were just begining to pull out of the dotCom bubble. I know, I had just reallocated to a heavy C/S/I holding because the market seemed to be in an early correction period - like March/April 2009. Then, three very large and explosive Black Swans flew into some very important buildings.

Anyone who couldn't read the dotCom and CrappyCredit bubbles was spending too much time in the bubbly. Those were large extensions. Easy for the sober to spot.



Here, Amoeba, you are talking about a pure 'market timing' strategy. A tight one. This form of market timing cannot be accomplished within our structure. You have two IFTs and broad indexes. Personally, I don't think anyone can successfully 'market time' these small bumps. Kinda like the 'fact' that everybody wins in Las Vegas - but the hotels kept going up:nuts:

1. easy to spot? really? It literally fell off a cliff, twice. the crappy-credit bubble lost 20% in something like 6 trading days.

The dot com was a double drop, I can't say I "spotted" it, but I was lucky.

I DID spot the credit bubble, which was apparent LONG before that in the 2-year swap spreads. The housing market mystified me, as did the lax lending standards. Could I have gotten into some overpriced real estate? even a bad loan? Sure.....but I didn't. I'd say 10% of my office workers are delinquent +/or in foreclosure. Wait a minute. That's the national average. Of the other 90%, at least a third bought into the top of the market and are out an average of $200,000



2. what are we calling "small"; -5%? how about December 09-January 10, what was that? -15%?

I'm giving it a go. I think last friday was a freak selling opportunity; if it wasn't.......well.......I am going home this month with +2%, way over my target.....If the market adjusts -5% next week, well then, I still go home.

Upside potential right now I would say is absolutely NONE!!!!! end of earnings season. end of home rebates = surprise downside sales in may +/or drop in prices.

The economy stinks out here in the west - there is vacant commercial space like no tomorrow. This is phony, government-stimulus created consumption. You know it, I know it, your momma knows it. Now, whether the big investors will buy, or sell, on the current euphoria?

That's the key question

3. This extent of gain pace over the 20 DMA is unprecedented. 1,200 is overextended.

...I say down next week....~75% chance. Ergo, 75% out.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: The bigger they are, the farther they fall.

You know it, I know it, your momma knows it.

and you don't want to argue with your momma.

this market is fixin to whoop some behind, i'm 60/40, do i get all out and miss the wave, or should i go all in and watch it crash?.

who's your daddy?