amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

Re: The bigger they are, the farther they fall.

...
this market is fixin to whoop some behind, i'm 60/40, do i get all out and miss the wave, or should i go all in and watch it crash?.

...?

A tough call, honestly......today could have been the beginning of a dip, or just a pause in birchtree-like thinking (never sell, always buy, the market always goes up, it's always time to buy). I'm happy with my position (25% in); anyway, I think I'm leading this website in # of IFT's, or close to the top in that category. Even birch averaged out a little bit, if memory serves, in the last week or so.

I'm looking to average back in hopefully under 1,185, but we'll see. I'll dump it all at 1220 if that happens this week.

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

The credit and housing bubbles are parts of the same. And, yes, 'the market' lost 20% in six days. But, wasn't that bubble visible as early as mid-2007? Yup. That Black Swan was flapping in our face for months.

The recent huge market crash of January 20 through February 8 was a devastating 8%. I think that is the one you were mentioning. It took 9 days. And, 8% isn't even a normal market correction. I kinda dumbly rode it down till Feb 1. It devastated my account to the tune of 5.66%. Oh, heart be still

The only bubble I see on the horizon has been visible since 2008. That would be the Eurozone crapy credit bubble. So, I am figuring that the 'I Fund' is a falling knife.

Don't know, just figuring...

Where will that money go. Maybe the C/S. Me thinks nobody really wants United States soverign debt either...

 

[amoeba]

Oooooh:

helping 83 yo mom file a claim with a roofing material manufacturer on a material defect claim, so I missed today's cutoff; reducing allocation to 5% each CSI, 80% G, and 5% F, effective COB wednesday.

No, I have no hopes for a deadcat bounce tomorrow, more like a market funeral.

This is NOT looking pretty. I think this may be a serious down week (my guess is ~1,160 or less in the S&P by COB friday). I am sticking to my guns, tho, and averaging out as planned for the big buy in later in May.

 

[amoeba]

Amoeba,

The credit and housing bubbles are parts of the same. And, yes, 'the market' lost 20% in six days. But, wasn't that bubble visible as early as mid-2007? Yup. That Black Swan was flapping in our face for months.

The recent huge market crash of January 20 through February 8 was a devastating 8%. I think that is the one you were mentioning. It took 9 days. And, 8% isn't even a normal market correction. I kinda dumbly rode it down till Feb 1. It devastated my account to the tune of 5.66%. Oh, heart be still

The only bubble I see on the horizon has been visible since 2008. That would be the Eurozone crapy credit bubble. So, I am figuring that the 'I Fund' is a falling knife.

Don't know, just figuring...

Where will that money go. Maybe the C/S. Me thinks nobody really wants United States soverign debt either...

All good points Boghie, as far as where the money will go, today it went into the likes of F- and G- funds, not C/S. And, ummm, yeahhhhhhhh, did I say 1,160 by friday? Could be tomorrow, hopefully not.....I have some IFT's comin up next monday. I'd like to see the averages scrape 1,100 to really clean out the weak hands and then some.

Should see our rankings scrambled by tonight.....I may crack the top 200!!!

 

[Boghie]

Looks like you might catch me - the falling knife

Horrible day, a very horrible day.

I was just starting to get out a little - in particular from the EuroTrash Zone. Not fast enough. I bet tomorrow is another bad one.

 

[amoeba]

Run for the hills!!!!

DO I HEAR KENNY RODGERS SINGING!

THE HELL WITH HOLD, FOLD, AND WALKING AWAY.........NOW IS THE TIME TO RUN, AND KEEP RUNNING!!!!

Nothin but red numbers across asia (10 pm EDT, 4/27/10) and worse news across the other pond. A dark week.

OK, I broke into the top 200 (#199!!!!), but with a -0.67% loss (and that with only 25% IN). I was diligent enough to sell into the 2nd rally to S&P 1217 a few days ago, called the top, but didn't sell hard enough into it, claiming diligence to my strategy.

I do plan to see if I can catch the knife next week, and yes, I am taking a look at all of the funds, including F and I.

Next time I run, I will run faster, and keep on running.

 

[JTH]

Amoeba, I just goosed you on the tracker,

Goose, Goose, I'm once again on your caboose.

 

[amoeba]

The SPY charts show a clear head formation; what a bonus; if this isn't the selling before a cliff-drop, I dunno what is:

I'm in Illinois, by the way, and picking up the Chicago Tribune this morn, the biz section proclaimed the housing crisis NOT over; in fact, the 5-county region had up to 62% INCREASE in foreclosures (as they should, those people don't make enough money to own houses).

I think I may sit out in advance of the jobs report, next week, which I personally think will be sold into no matter what. The saving grace of the last claims (new, continuing) numbers is that they were within noise of the briefing forecast (and, by the way, remember that these are unrevised).

So as I see it - today was the gift horse of all time, bounce in the I fund (I ditched it), and everything else.

Current allocation 90/5/2/3/0 in G/F/C/S/I.

If anything changes dramatically, and I don't think it will, I will have alot of dry powder, and 2 IFT's to play with.

April 29 ranking (before close) is #200. 3.72% year to date; I dropped ~.66% this week on the I-fund, mainly. My peak this month was ~4.8% I think ~4/16/10. I think I'm in my original target range of ~1.0-1.5% for the month.

I think next month, I'll try to be a little more disciplined in my bail targets, and not be so greedy, piggy; like Birchtree, for example. Next month, I think I'll lower it to ~0.8%; I don't see much good domestically after the 4/30 Federal first time home buyer rebate expiration, and other things.

OUT

 

[Birchtree]

The important fact to remember is a Dow of 12,000 within the next 23 trading days - you might want some of that action. Right now I can't decide if I want to Snort or Oink - both sounds are good. I'll pick up what you toss today if you don't mind. My daughter got a job in the Chicago area recently and her employer's business is growing - she's a project manager and had a step up on the job because of her education and military experience - the employer was specifically recruiting her profile. Dad did a good job on this one.

 

[amoeba]

Next week I believe the stars will be completely mis-aligned; a downside surprise jobs report; continued lack of resolution in Europe; no more lame homebuyer rebates; and no more lame one-time earnings based on prior layoffs.

I will be looking to buy back in once the suckers are cleared out, sometime around next thursday or friday at the earliest.

Good luck everyone. A quick look at the recent IFT's are showing mild bias towards moving back in, today only (common on down days). What will happen if we have consecutive down weeks? Time will tell.

Oh yeah - one quick edit - I moved completely out today (4/30/10; 95/5 G/F); rank lowered to #226, and met my april target of 1.5%, but it took some doing.

 

[WIND_HUNTER]

Nice Work Amoeba! I got my eye on you...

 

[amoeba]

Re: On target, continuing to let it ride thru financials

Did I say that yesteday after the close? Seems on target so far. With JPM beating and C to follow later, I am letting it ride today and raising my goal for the month to 1.5%.

I see minimal downside risk until the next jobs report, and up to 1,220 before that. Me being cautious, that 's alot of optimism.

Just made the raised goal (finished up 1.51%)........the above was my post on ~4/12/10.......I actually was up at one point 2.51% for the month, which held for 2 days, and then the GS crap hit in the afternoon, I think on 4/15/10.....I figure I could have done better, or much worse if I had let it ride.....i.e......based on my IFT and fund prices (I began in about 1/3 each of CSI, when the SPY ws ~1,190) I'd have finished in a bath of red, probably down at least 1%.

I'm still working on strategies to do better with only 2 IFT's; but it really depends on when the opportunities arise.....if they were to come late in the month you could average in in 4 installments (2 one month, 2 the next), but that is most often not the case.

Once again, my goal for May is ~.75-.80% gain. I'll allow myself to raise it once only, but not more than 1.5%. No piggy.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: On target, continuing to let it ride thru financials

Once again, my goal for May is ~.75-.80% gain. I'll allow myself to raise it once only, but not more than 1.5%. No piggy.

Well somehow I just had a 'flashback' of you making a toast as you thought the Markets crashed and burned.


So if that's your goal for May -- and let's say you're at 3% now -- then I will pass you.


Tomorrow is my busiest day -- but hey it's cool - cause I'm putting the rest in pretty soon.


Want the best advise -- Read my Thread

Later man

 

[amoeba]

Re: On target, continuing to let it ride thru financials

Well somehow I just had a 'flashback' of you making a toast as you thought the Markets crashed and burned.


So if that's your goal for May -- and let's say you're at 3% now -- then I will pass you.


Tomorrow is my busiest day -- but hey it's cool - cause I'm putting the rest in pretty soon.


Want the best advise -- Read my Thread

Later man

I'm at ~3.73%; and I'd like to be at 4.5% by end of May. I'll take a look at your thread - - - and your ranking - - - next.

Hmmmmmmmmmm. You're #315, at negatory 1.33%. You're monthly goal is then a differential on my return north of 5% to pass me?

I suppose you'd have to have a very good month, or me a very bad one. I can live with .75% for May.

 

[amoeba]

3.89% and holding, foaming at mouth to buy in but...

Oh goody:

I'm actually at 3.89% and, as I implied in recent posts, you have to be OUT of the market during big drops like this one. I expect to rise into the top 190 ranks of our forum by close of biz today, and I'm foaming at the mouth with 2 fresh IFT's.....but.....not yet.

I've already mentioned the portending jobs report. One more reason is that the S-fund is technically is, even after today, STILL WAY overbought and way out of whack with the other funds. Another 3% down is needed....say....something in the neighborhood of 575 or less in the ^DWCPF to bring it at least down to the 20 DMA if not the 50 DMA.

Some other indices are showing more weakness, such as the SOX, but our choices are limited.

The brave can think about the I-fund.....I'm not yet prepared to jump into that darkness....

If the jobs report comes up lame, or if it is sold into, expect the S&P to breach 1,100 by the end of next week, approaching -10% from the peak (~1,217) a few weeks ago. That would be a better bet than today, and, judging by the recent IFTs, I'm not the only one who thinks so.....others are cutting losses.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: 3.89% and holding, foaming at mouth to buy in but...

Oh goody:

I'm actually at 3.89%

Hey that's not too bad at all.

I'm just glad you're not at some impossible place like 20%.


Well I let it play out and see where it goes. I do think it is a very bizarre rule that I have to go all the way to the bottom position before I can go back up to catch you.

But whatever --- GL man.

 

[Boghie]

Hey Amoeba,

I might just pass right by you on the AutoTracker...

I'll wave if you wave:toung:

 

[Birchtree]

Boghie,

You're not that heavy in the S fund or I fund to create that much damage - but if you do get close to the amoeba check the fear level in those eyes. He's probably on the lily pad for the duration of the month.

 

[Boghie]

Birch,

I kinda bailed. Meant to get to a conservative allocation yesterday - but had a bit of an 'emergency' at work. Oh, well...

Anyway, headed into a fairly standard conservative allocation today. Still have 40% C and 15% S - so I should be able to catch some of the rebound.

My new post will have Amoeba smiling


Yup - A smiling wave to Amoeba as the knife I was on falls:nuts:

 

[amoeba]

well gee:

I'm rank #152 now. Despite the greek mishmash, the ADP (this month, and last's revision up) caused a rebound and then, deterioration below the 50 DMA on the SPY.

This suggests, to me, that even if the 5/7 jobs report meets expectation, it will be sold into. The only thing that can save the market is a big upside surprise in the jobs report and a revision of last month's lame report. If the market holds somewhere near the 50 DMA, say 1,165 in the SPY by COB friday....that might be worth a look to go into C-fund.

A miss in the jobs report will crush all markets to the tune of -5%- meaning the 200 DMA (that's right, down another 60 points in the SPY), possibly more on a follow thru next monday.

S-fund is another story.......still too overbought........got to go down another 2% before I'll consider it.