amoeba's Account Talk

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

Anthony paired his losses in 2008 via DCAs.

Also, I will acknowledge that I only recently have become more of 'born again' DCAer. My record shows that I have not historically bought and held. That saved me in 2008, by keeping my losses to -6% (reality with DCA; -10% on the tracker). That also cost me in 2009 by restricting my gains.​

DCA is a different top than asset allocation, but it is connected and it is important. I had the same thing happen to me in 2008 as Anthony. Those DCA investments gave me lots of new shares to play with.

Anyway, good to see you invested. Hope you whomp that damn BirchTree this month. I can’t handle his snarky attitude. Unbelievable. More likely, you will whomp on me. Birch is running too fast to catch!!! So fleet of foot!!!

And, I've suddenly been getting cold feet.

I need someone to prop me up.

 

[Boghie]

For what its worth Amoeba,
I like your allocation.
I might steal it

That's what programmers like me do:nuts:

 

[amoeba]

For what its worth Amoeba,
I like your allocation.
I might steal it

That's what programmers like me do:nuts:

Part of the rationale for the even balance of equities is to do <1% IFT's on each of them, allowing me to round up as much as 3% on an up day if I want to increase my allocation. That was part of what I did today, just to see if it would work (increased from 30 to 31% I fund today, which I expect to be the continued winner this week, not so good for C or S, however, I stayed heavy on those because NONE OF YOU CLUED ME IN ON THE ALCOA MISS - kidding aside - it was just a penny, and there are others this week, especially intel, which may soften the blow).

We'll see the reaction tomorrow morning; there could be some dip buying at the close too.

SOMEONE PLEASE GIVE ME THE LOW-DOWN ON CSX (announces also after the close), AND DON'T TELL ANYONE ELSE!!!

As far as whomping birchtree, hardly, I'm up 1.5%, but he's up 1.6% having held through last monday. I can live with that.

My rank is up to #211; +3.75% for the year. Not breaking any return records, but on track, so far.

 

[Birchtree]

In January my rank was #200 with a -4.90%. So there is hope if you hold your position. Now I'm resting at #76 with a +8.18%. Enjoy the ride - we may or may not experience a consolidation for the remainder of the month.

 

[amoeba]

asia not looking good at the moment(11 pm PST):

I may continue averaging out with another move tomorrow. A couple mediocre earnings report could set this rally back substantially; and more quickly than we can react on the TSP.

Amoeba out.

 

[nasa1974]

In January my rank was #200 with a -4.90%. So there is hope if you hold your position. Now I'm resting at #76 with a +8.18%. Enjoy the ride - we may or may not experience a consolidation for the remainder of the month.

Check your mirrors Birch. I do not know how long it will last but I am right on you bumper.:nuts: Hopefully I can draft long enough to pass you up on the back straight away.:blink: I have had a little more luck, February 8th I was ranked at 278 with a -6.58%. Now I am at 77 and 8.06%.

 

[Birchtree]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/36429616

 

[amoeba]

Letting most of it ride on CSX,INTC after close

I saw that, Birchtree, and much more, wouldn't call it "insider" but, as you know, INTC has a sizable facility here in Sacramento that has a good amount of product development - so the word does get about, locally, nothing detailed but it sounds like things are looking good now, AND in the NEAR future (6-12 months) for new chip products and earnings:

I am about 90% confident of a "beats" earnings report for both CSX and INTC after the close; and an upday tomorrow. I expect INTC to have very strong forward guidance. Almost a certainty - but not quite a no-brainer. Money, not BS, will talk. The rest walks. We will know very, very soon.

I lightened up 5%, reflecting my level of confidence. There's always a chance that the earnings could come in a little light, as they did with AA, and several such moves of that kind could bring us back to 1,150 in a blink. There probably would not be enough time for us in the TSP to get out.

As I said, the downside beyond today is modest, at most -1% total I would say (to 1,180). Equal or better upside, somewhere in the 1,204-1,209 range.

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

You lost 90 cents per $1,000 invested today. Run for the hills!!!

The next two weeks are going to be good. Very good

 

[amoeba]

Amoeba,

You lost 90 cents per $1,000 invested today. Run for the hills!!!

The next two weeks are going to be good. Very good

I'm not sure about the whole next two weeks, but the earnings after close came in high so tomorrow will definitely be good; I'm guessing +2%.

Now its a no-brainer. I can still put some dough back in under the <1% IFT rule. If I end up at +4% by end of month I'll be happy.

 

[Boghie]

I'm not sure about the whole next two weeks, but the earnings after close came in high so tomorrow will definitely be good; I'm guessing +2%.

Now its a no-brainer. I can still put some dough back in under the <1% IFT rule. If I end up at +4% by end of month I'll be happy.

Grab what you can - then head for the hills.

This already happened (partly) in Kaleforea. The rest of the happenin' will be happenin' soon

My biggest issue is that the hills I can bury my tin can of casholla in are available to the Federal government. They can 'temporarily' borrow from the 'G Fund. I want a money market.

 

[Silverbird]

California has the silly law which allows any expense to be added to the budget by popular referendum and any taxation or other revenue gaining legislation has to be passed by a super majority. No other state is that silly (so far). Add to that numerous attempts to add enviromental laws based on EU directives, and you've got what looks like a state that's gone off on its on personal tangent. Anyone who thinks California is still a bellweather is living back in the 80's, or lives in California. From the outside looking in, it's no longer true. :cheesy:

To be fair, we have foos in Virginia who think that we are going to start a new revolution in this state that everyone's going to follow, and we look just as foolish.

 

[amoeba]

On target, continuing to let it ride thru financials

As I said, the downside beyond today is modest, at most -1% total I would say (to 1,180). Equal or better upside, somewhere in the 1,204-1,209 range.

Did I say that yesteday after the close? Seems on target so far. With JPM beating and C to follow later, I am letting it ride today and raising my goal for the month to 1.5%.

I see minimal downside risk until the next jobs report, and up to 1,220 before that. Me being cautious, that 's alot of optimism.

 

[Birchtree]

Finally matador welcome to the bullish arena - would you like a slender pair of sticky pants to help you stay the course.

 

[Boghie]

California has the silly law which allows any expense to be added to the budget by popular referendum and any taxation or other revenue gaining legislation has to be passed by a super majority. No other state is that silly (so far). Add to that numerous attempts to add enviromental laws based on EU directives, and you've got what looks like a state that's gone off on its on personal tangent. Anyone who thinks California is still a bellweather is living back in the 80's, or lives in California. From the outside looking in, it's no longer true. :cheesy:

To be fair, we have foos in Virginia who think that we are going to start a new revolution in this state that everyone's going to follow, and we look just as foolish.

Silverbird,

You have a point. We Kaleforeans vote to borrow money to upgrade schools and to 'pay for' stem cell research and lots of other things. Way too easy.

However, our state has unilaterally decided to dramatically beef up unemployment benefits, workman’s comp, Medicare benefits, and provide free medical/educational benefits to a very large group of citizens of a foreign country. None of those benefits are mandatory.

But, why is Illinois beating us to the bottom of the turd farm?

Well, one could claim that they have voted Lib for a long time too

 

[Tsunami]

Looks to me like momo should carry it higher. At a minimum I'd look at selling at least some at the 61.8% retracement....

The July 2008 high was $120.06
The Feb 2009 low was $11.72 (wow)

I calculate the 61.8% retrace as $78.67

Birchtree, from my post #374 on 3/13 (boy I had to dig back to find it) CLF is getting close to that fibonacci target. Are you gonna just hold it? If it doesn't get there on this run, I bet it does in May.

 

[Birchtree]

CLF is part of my sacrificial lamb chop portfolio designed to protect my oceanic account from a margin call - so I probably won't sell until I'm forced into a situation where it becomes necessary. I'm sure we'll see $120 real soon. Remeinds me of the days when I owned MOS.

 

[amoeba]

Amoeba does not comment on individual stocks other than those which relate to movement of TSP fund share prices.

Anyhow, I'll dispense with the third person to say this:


-I think when the returns are added today, I will have hit my raised "bail" target, in one day, and no bad news in sight. More financials and techs in the next week. All look good. What now?

Hey, it's my $$$. I reserve the right to change my mind and raise my target. I like being this kind of "wrong" (underpredict the monthly peak).

This was a fairly "easy" call. I wasn't even discouraged by Crowley's "intel effect" piece in his daily comments: what I read into that were the 2 or 3 big green numbers (two recent) and didn't see the 17-18 red ones. The harder one will be the jobs number towards the end of the month, or an "overshoot" (see below) correction - which appears increasingly more likely - but, I suspect will be mild and bought into if it happens.

I would categorize an "overshoot" as whenever the share price of our C-fund (or SPY) exceeds the 20 DMA by more than 5%.

 

[amoeba]

-I think when the returns are added today, I will have hit my raised "bail" target, in one day, and no bad news in sight. More financials and techs in the next week. All look good. What now?

Hey, it's my $$$. I reserve the right to change my mind and raise my target. I like being this kind of "wrong" (underpredict the monthly peak).

This was a fairly "easy" call. I wasn't even discouraged by Crowley's "intel effect" piece in his daily comments: what I read into that were the 2 or 3 big green numbers (two recent) and didn't see the 17-18 red ones. The harder one will be the jobs number towards the end of the month, or an "overshoot" (see below) correction - which appears increasingly more likely - but, I suspect will be mild and bought into if it happens.

I would categorize an "overshoot" as whenever the share price of our C-fund (or SPY) exceeds the 20 DMA by more than 5%.

Well - if anyone follows the tracker - you'll notice I lightened up from 80% to 70% equities today. The reasons were as follows:

a) higher-than-expected new unemployment claims;
b) I did indeed exceed my raised monthly "bail target" of 1.5% by alot, I thought about raising it to 2.0%, but I beat that too - and that without being fully invested (80% CSI, 20% GF);
c) averaging out discipline; not one big out move all at once unless clearly warranted; there's nothing but potential positives in the next week, some (like sentiment, tomorrow) that have produced larger-than-expected reactions, so I wanted to be "mostly" in for that;
d) very, very high invester bullishness - on our website poll, and elsewhere, this is normally contrarian, but here - - - I'm wondering if this is some kind of "new money"; pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, some sort of program dip-buying perhaps, its something that is just overwhelming any selling activity and preventing the dip; i.e., whenever the daily price drops ~0.5-1.0% below the open, someone buys it all and forces it up again. It's happening right now, again (920 am PST, 4/15/10).

So a mix of great, good, and nothing really bad; and, as I've commented before, if there was anything "bad", the market has had a habit of shrugging it off. Will I try to time a dip towards months' end?

Maybe. But even I see the glass as more than half full.

Oh, by the way, I'm not in the top 200, but close (#206 in our rankings, today).

 

[nnuut]

Just a thought about the Jobs numbers:
1. What happened to the 18,000 Census workers that counted positively last month and had to be terminated this month?
2. Temporary workers hired for Easter.:worried: