amoeba's Account Talk

[poolman]

Of course I'm going to hold my current positions - I'm just offering confirmation of thoughts so amoeba is not out there all alone. I personally don't believe a word from that article.

LOL,

 

[amoeba]

LOL,

anyone who follows his IFTs knows what the smiley face is about.

I bailed another 3%. I am not yet into the all in, all out, mentality - but I am aiming to make larger initial moves out, since the rate of decline seems to be precipitous during these corrections, if that's what they are - and I'm not saying I know what this move is....

So - what to make of these last 30-60 minute head fakes up or down? Those are some real flipflops.....I thought it was going to trade down!!!! Someone, or some large sovereigns or hedges or????, are doing late wagering recently.

 

[amoeba]

I like it when you get real negative - get ready for your next lesson.

Nice msg on 5/22/10, above, and ummmm, yahhhhh, let's see now......I was at +5% on 5/12/10, couldn't get to the computer on time due to work......bailed on a 2.5% loss ~5/17/10 with the S&P at ~1,140 or so. You continued to ride it down 100% in to a negatory 4%?

So here we sit.....with everything I told you about, uncertain Europe, uncertain homesales, uncertain employment here......told ya so's ad nauseum.....and I need a lesson? Pray tell, what lesson is that? That fony government stimuli don't work? That there will be a day when, the fony home sale numbers won't be believed anymore? That a day of reckoning cometh. We are close, but we aren't there yet....and by that I mean ANOTHER -10% IN ONE DAY? WHICH COULD BE TOMORROW? OR THE NEXT DAY? WHADDAYA THINK? THE MARKET IS GOING TO TELL YOU? WHAT DOES THE LAST 1/2 HOUR OF TODAY TELL YOU? I KNOW WHAT IT TELLS ME. ARE YOU READY? CAN YOU TAKE A NEEDLE?

GET THE EFF OUT OF C,S, AND I FUND. ALL OUT....RIGHT NOW.....NO AVERAGING OUT.....NO WAITING FOR BOUNCES.....JUST GET OUT. DO NOT PASS GO, DO NOT COLLECT ANYTHING BUT LOSS, BUT PREVENT FURTHER LOSS. WHAT'S THAT YOU SAY? I ALREADY GOT OUT? HEYYYYYYYY.....I DID.......SO THAT MAKES IT YOUR LESSON, NOT MINE.

SO - - - PLEASE TELL ME - WHAT'S MY LESSON?

I CAN'T HEAR YOU!!!

 

[Birchtree]

Please don't be so sensitive. We all learn lessons in this game. We have seven more months to play gladiator in this arena. IMHO the panic we are experiencing provides ridiculously low prices and represents the best buying opportunity perhaps for the rest of the year - I'm staying long no matter the gloom and doom. I shall use this low period of prices to further build my asset base. That's why I bought into the I fund.

 

[amoeba]

Please don't be so sensitive. We all learn lessons in this game. We have seven more months to play gladiator in this arena. IMHO the panic we are experiencing provides ridiculously low prices and represents the best buying opportunity perhaps for the rest of the year - I'm staying long no matter the gloom and doom. I shall use this low period of prices to further build my asset base. That's why I bought into the I fund.

And that's why you should have gotten out.

Me sensitive? That's the first time I've ever been accused of that!!! But as far as your post above goes, it makes no sense. You can't take advantage of any buying opportunity - even if there was one - because you have no dry powder to IFT into the low prices. I do. You bought into I-fund at what was it? 17+change? and it's what now? 16 flat?

To "buy" - you need to have something to buy with; for me that's 92% G fund.

So that's an opportunity for me - and not for you. But fear not - there could be a double dead cat that might allow you to get out somewhere in the neighborhood of ~1,100 in S&P - so you'll only take a 10% loss into June instead of 20%. Your choice.

 

[amoeba]

another strongly negative trade in asia again (5/24 7 pm PDT) deteriorating over time:

tomorrow is another day, but it does not look like a good one. Need some really good news to stop this bottoming process, not like I hoping for it; since I have no IFT to go into it.

Next month, I'm going to think CH's words (patience, wisdom) but see if I can use them this time. I am going to go for 3.5% (up) next month. Look for some big days ahead.....there may be some up days left this month.....but they have been far and few between, and real bear traps when they occur. I know I got caught in one.

 

[JimmyJoe]

I'm backing you. It's a balance in order to go positive. Birch will be an influence to help me know approximately when stocks will take off again. It's just that I don't think it'll happen as easily as he thinks it will be this summer. I'll use my own combination of market estimates next month, using my ifts more wisely. I am not made to go all in, especially not during this market. Must retain balance.

 

[nasa1974]

I understand amoeba's frustration. The last week of April I was around a +12% and now I am -2.5ish. Today is not going to be good.

 

[jdphx]

GET THE EFF OUT OF C,S, AND I FUND. ALL OUT....RIGHT NOW.....

To "buy" - you need to have something to buy with

Amoeba,


Doesn't this put you in a position of trying to call the bottom?

This seems to me just about as hard as calling the top, and when to
sell... Please, I am not trying at all to question your strategy. Only
trying to hone my own. I am currently all in. And I don't want to sell now,
or on an up day, only to lock in any losses if your opinion plays out.

What do you need to happen before you move back in?

 

[amoeba]

Amoeba,


Doesn't this put you in a position of trying to call the bottom?

This seems to me just about as hard as calling the top, and when to
sell... Please, I am not trying at all to question your strategy. Only
trying to hone my own. I am currently all in. And I don't want to sell now,
or on an up day, only to lock in any losses if your opinion plays out.

What do you need to happen before you move back in?

You mean - trying AGAIN to call the bottom, don't you? Seriously, what I need are one or more of the following:

a) June 1 to happen, since I have no IFT's left;
b) a big daily move down, something that could be perceived as oversold, such as an open that is gapped 5% or more down; know that I've tried this before, unsuccessfully, as the open was bought into after our noon cutoff, and the next day it was sold off with a vengeance - wait a minute - hey, that may have started to happen in a small way today - at least the first part of it, so be careful.
c) accelerating employment >300,000 net jobs; plus at least one other coincident indicator such as several consecutive wks of significantly declining new and especially continuing claims. I know there's been some noise up and down, but its steady and high unemployment now.
d) the 20 DMA moving north (up) and recrossing the 50 DMA in the SPY.

 

[dennismbeaulieu]

What every one needs to remember is externals as well as internals all point to a down trend in a bull market, would I want to risk any capital at this point....NO...I believe the more prudent and logical play would be to wait for more definative evidence to long our positions..so close to the end of the month... I have been waiting for the right time to reallocate to be in at the begining of the month but the internals are so negative it is not feasable. Therfore ill wait for a more oppurtune time, maybe i dont strike rock bottom but the odds will be in my favor.

 

[amoeba]

another day - another late selloff begins

NUTZ!!!!!

I delayed my IFT into G-fund effective tomorrow bcz I saw WHAT I THOUGHT, would be a mini-deadcat-approach towards the 1,100 resistence.

But NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. Just another day of a faded rally; tomorrow, I suspect; will NOT be the first 2-day build in any of the TSP indices in over what is it? 5 weeks? Oh well. At least the F-fund is recovering its earlier losses.

I'm dumping everything - lick my wounds of this month (down 3.3% from the high point, on 5/13) and sit on my hands until that 20 DMA shows some evidence of bottoming out. Over the last 5 years, the direction of the 20 DMA has predicted every bounce in the bull market off of corrections; that is - if you don't count the times the market switched from a bear to a bull - if you bought in on that one - you maximized your loss instead of your gain.

Anyway - I read Tom's commentary today - and found alot of similarities in his thinking and my recent post before it (albeit I have fewer statistics, and bigger targets on gap negative opens); I still think there's some magnetism towards 1,100 in the SPY - but it's not exact and, I believe, it will serve as both an up target from now, and a down target on any overshoot.

Please - pretty please - give me one more up day; then you can crash again......

 

[amoeba]

spike in the 2y swapspread

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/cbuilder?ticker1=USSP2:IND

Now over 50 BP; last time this occurred (2nd time in last 5 yr), we all know what happened to stocks; if it happens again and you held like a birch tree; can't say later that nobody toldyaso bcz I just did.

 

[amoeba]

I'm still waiting....

I like it when you get real negative - get ready for your next lesson.

I'm even more negative after today's late selloff, AGAIN, and I will be 100% out as of COB tomorrow in your nemesis G-fund.

I'm still waiting for my next lesson.....so let's hear it!!!

 

[amoeba]

and 1 more thing: you will have time to reinvest bcz...

And one more thing:

You will have time to reinvest because, historically on these deep dip corrections (if that's what this is); just to clarify the signal on the 20 DMA, it not only inflexes, but does so after it crosses below the 200 DMA; it did this 3X in 2005-2007; during that bull.

In this case, the 200 DMA is roughly coincident with the calender year low back in late Jan-Feb, whenever that was; I'm thinking - if this remains a bull, it will be a relatively clear, bottoming signal on the order of a week or so flopping under the 200 DMA before moving up.

If it doesn't, and you are 100% G like me, then its either a market collapse that you will be thankful to avoid, or such a sharp V the likes of which hasn't happened historically - that there would be no way to catch it other than sheer luck -- - - - which most of this market timing is anyway...

 

[Boghie]

Re: and 1 more thing: you will have time to reinvest bcz...

And one more thing:

You will have time to reinvest because, historically on these deep dip corrections (if that's what this is); just to clarify the signal on the 20 DMA, it not only inflexes, but does so after it crosses below the 200 DMA; it did this 3X in 2005-2007; during that bull.

In this case, the 200 DMA is roughly coincident with the calender year low back in late Jan-Feb, whenever that was; I'm thinking - if this remains a bull, it will be a relatively clear, bottoming signal on the order of a week or so flopping under the 200 DMA before moving up.

If it doesn't, and you are 100% G like me, then its either a market collapse that you will be thankful to avoid, or such a sharp V the likes of which hasn't happened historically - that there would be no way to catch it other than sheer luck -- - - - which most of this market timing is anyway...

If it is a sharp V then you will miss the first half of the recovery. You (like me) have no IFTs. Then, there will be belief that we are in a one or two day rally with another crash to follow.

And, much of your bailout occured at S&P 1135. Any recovery after the first 5.7% growth in the S&P500 will lock in losses.

I don't know if it will work but I have been attempting to buy little bits (all I can do) into the equities on the way down. Like FutureTrader I think the IFT limit will save me from a big move like I did 2008/10/22. I probably would have jumped back in on Thursday or so. Its been flat since then, but the risk is too high to invest on the flat.

We will see what works.

 

[amoeba]

Re: and 1 more thing: you will have time to reinvest bcz...

If it is a sharp V then you will miss the first half of the recovery. You (like me) have no IFTs. Then, there will be belief that we are in a one or two day rally with another crash to follow.

And, much of your bailout occured at S&P 1135. Any recovery after the first 5.7% growth in the S&P500 will lock in losses.

I don't know if it will work but I have been attempting to buy little bits (all I can do) into the equities on the way down. Like FutureTrader I think the IFT limit will save me from a big move like I did 2008/10/22. I probably would have jumped back in on Thursday or so. Its been flat since then, but the risk is too high to invest on the flat.

We will see what works.

1,135 would feel real good to some of those in the #200+ ranks on this site. I just missed the peak on 5/12, due to a long early meeting and travel time (but I could have done it, got to the meeting early) beginning my bail in two sets on 5/14 and 5/17 after a false day of hope on 5/13. I wouldn't call anything "flat" yet. As I said in one my most recent posts, the chances of a sharp V are close to nil; and, judging from what just happened (on 5/7), can be a real bear trap. There's quite a gap to fill between now and 1,220, and as far as the fear of locked in losses, that's better than locked in more losses. Right now - with the swaps and vix where they are - this market could move much lower - possibly 10% or more, and quickly. I'll live with the haircut, which I keep short anyhow, and watch someone else swing for the fences from the sidelines. Today's trade was not hopeful.

 

[amoeba]

I just plotted the DMAs and stock prices for the last 10 years, and this is looking EITHER like aug 2004 and july 2006 (bulls), or july 2007 (bull-bear transition); in either case - it was ~4 weeks minimum before the market found a clear direction off the 200 DMA first cross; additionally today's current latest trade (~12 noon 5/28/10, PDT) is showing what appears to be small-volume buying at 1,185; this may be another friday (if so, making it 4 of the last 5); in which there is a late selloff and net close lower.

The next hour will be important for this close and, consequently, sentiment formation over the long weekend.

 

[nasa1974]

Yep it turned into a typical Friday.

 

[Birchtree]

"Whilst we acknowledge that these Head and Shoulders top patterns sometimes abort, it looks highly unlikely that this one will, especially as this pattern is confirmed by similar bearish patterns in other markets."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19915.html