amoeba's Account Talk

[crws]

I think the gubmint will send in the PPT (a.k.a. Goldman Sachs & BlackRock) if it gets too dire

 

[amoeba]

More sideways action:

Coolhand said it best in his blog (slam dunk? as in no slam dunk); this market could go either way; on the upside, the best case scenario sees 1,150 before a challenge below 1,050; and the worst case is me going all in like I did in the 2nd week of may, and having my TSP spanked to no tarnation.

Needless to say, those permabears take heed - if you lost 15% coming into this week, you might wanna think about cutting thy losses.

Seen this before; 1,100, one or two good days, a few sideways, and suckermania sets in. Notably, this is the second day above the 20 dma.

Big deal (not).

 

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/felix-zulauf-the-march-2009-low-wont-hold

 

[Boghie]

More sideways action:

Coolhand said it best in his blog (slam dunk? as in no slam dunk); this market could go either way; on the upside, the best case scenario sees 1,150 before a challenge below 1,050; and the worst case is me going all in like I did in the 2nd week of may, and having my TSP spanked to no tarnation.

Needless to say, those permabears take heed - if you lost 15% coming into this week, you might wanna think about cutting thy losses.

Seen this before; 1,100, one or two good days, a few sideways, and suckermania sets in. Notably, this is the second day above the 20 dma.

Big deal (not).

Well, Amoeba,

The 'Black Swan' speaks tonight. More ignorance. More invective. More punishment in the near future for the competetive system of capitalism. Especially for evil energy.

It might be time to take some profit.

But, I think I'll let the market decide.

 

[amoeba]

Now what?

Now what?

A wierd, steady increase today to the 1,110 level on light volume, but not the lightest volume (even less as the 4/23 peak was reached). This seems odd for mid-week. I don't quite get what is going on here....has upside resistance been broken? I, for one, still don't feel comfortable until the 20 dma starts moving up instead of down, and, I'll never feel comfortable with 10% unemployment as it is, and an economy running on stimuli fumes.

But those macros are not in play right now. What is.....someone else can imagine. I can't. Since I'm not in, the market has a way of going up. I'm inclined to sit tight some more; amoeba out.

 

[crws]

FYI, I'm pretty convinced this is it...
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=275785#post275785

 

[amoeba]

FYI, I'm pretty convinced this is it...
http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=275785#post275785

that shows the thread only; pls give me the post# of what to look at that you're convinced of....

Today's volume lighter still.....options expiration end of week.....could result in late buying if still over 1,100....not sure if this is worth the one-two day gamble or not....

would have bought F-fund but price is going back up again....am thinking of going contrarian to F if there is another gasp in this suckerness.

 

[amoeba]

Birch had better print out and frame his ~#200 or so ranking, positive territory for the first time in weeks, albeit still fifty spots and 2-3% below me, and the G-fund.

Those were some lame housing start #'s. I'm considering waiting till the next jobs report, a rise in the 20 dma, or both. Unless F-fund goes on sale, in which case I will buy that.

 

[crws]

It was this link in the post 275785
here it is- regarding the light volume and uptick.
This was the morning of the 15th (yesterday)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...SCe00338&pos=1
“I think today’s move is largely technical,” said London- based David Morrison, a market strategist at GFT. “U.S. traders will try and take the S&P 500 up through the 200-day moving average at 1,108. It feels like equities will try to push higher regardless” of the outcome of today’s economic reports.

that shows the thread only; pls give me the post# of what to look at that you're convinced of....

Today's volume lighter still.....options expiration end of week.....could result in late buying if still over 1,100....not sure if this is worth the one-two day gamble or not....

would have bought F-fund but price is going back up again....am thinking of going contrarian to F if there is another gasp in this suckerness.

 

[crws]

have you seen this thread yet?
Robo posted some good info too.
He said he parked at the garage today.
I am in thru Friday, and out that nite.
3rd Fridays have had the highest volume over the last 3 months. Tuesday's rout was pretty good volume for an up day, but barely over 1/2 of the most recent option day May 21.
I am expecting Triple/Quadruple witching to add a significant boost to volume, although as the history article noted, I am only expecting a 1% gain for the week. Volatility should calm as written about, and so far seems to be holding true.

 

[Boghie]

Birch had better print out and frame his ~#200 or so ranking, positive territory for the first time in weeks, albeit still fifty spots and 2-3% below me, and the G-fund.

Those were some lame housing start #'s. I'm considering waiting till the next jobs report, a rise in the 20 dma, or both. Unless F-fund goes on sale, in which case I will buy that.

Hi Amoeba,

Depending on tomorrow, Birch is only a day away...

What a homecoming that will be. I'm sure he'll drop in. He's catching both of us. Anyway, sorry I couldn't hang around. I had places to be and people to see!!!

I'm thinking of reducing risk (equity holdings). It was a tasty bump, but I don't have much confidence in either a summer rally or an 'Obama Economic Miracle'.

 

[crws]

That would be an OEM in nerd terms

Hi Amoeba,

Depending on tomorrow, Birch is only a day away...

What a homecoming that will be. I'm sure he'll drop in. He's catching both of us. Anyway, sorry I couldn't hang around. I had places to be and people to see!!!

I'm thinking of reducing risk (equity holdings). It was a tasty bump, but I don't have much confidence in either a summer rally or an 'Obama Economic Miracle'.

 

[Boghie]

That would be an OEM in nerd terms

I like that. OEM sounds so modern. It also means 'Original Equipment Manufacturer' so that might induce confusion. Then again, we won't be manufacturing anything - or buying anything soon so less confusion.

However, confusion is good!!!

I like it.

 

[Birchtree]

"Most major stock market bottoms have occurred with the SPX selling at 20% or more under its 200 day moving average. The index sold at 28% under its 200 day average at the 2002 bottom and 38% under at the 2009 bottom. Even at the recent lows the market was only 6% under its 200 day average. In addition sentiment is nowhere near as gloomy as it usually gets at major lows."

http://pragcap.com/why-its-still-a-secular-bear-market

 

[amoeba]

well - I plotted all the 20 dma's, and the C and I funds have inflected, the S fund is still moving down, so, this could be something.......mebbe I'll throw some chips in......mebbe not......no pain....no gain, but then again, no loss either.

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

There are many ways to lose money. Here is one:

40 years old, 3.1% inflation,
$50,000 currently invested,
$6,000 / year contribution (increased by inflation)

After tax retirement income:

2% annual return = $6,380 / year - that is an Alpo Meal Deal
3% annual return = $8,110 / year - that is an Alpo Meal Deal
4% annual return = $10,323 / year - that is an Alpo Meal Deal
5% annual return = $13,153 / year - maybe ok
6% annual return = $16,770 / year - maybe ok
7% annual return = $21,391 / year - maybe ok
8% annual return = $27,292 / year - ok​

So, a lifetime average return of 6% might be survivable – especially with a small pension portion.

But, watch out. Me thinks our pensions will – shall we say – be adjusted

Anyway, if you invest in such a way as to earn 3% in your aggressive years than not risking money means that you will have your choice of most of the Alpo flavors. That does NOT mean I don’t agree with your moves this year – but, it is VERY dangerous not to allow your assets to work for you when you are youngish.

 

[ezmoney]

Amoeba,

There are many ways to lose money. Here is one:

40 years old, 3.1% inflation,
$50,000 currently invested,
$6,000 / year contribution (increased by inflation)

After tax retirement income:

2% annual return = $6,380 / year - that is an Alpo Meal Deal
3% annual return = $8,110 / year - that is an Alpo Meal Deal
4% annual return = $10,323 / year - that is an Alpo Meal Deal
5% annual return = $13,153 / year - maybe ok
6% annual return = $16,770 / year - maybe ok
7% annual return = $21,391 / year - maybe ok
8% annual return = $27,292 / year - ok
​

So, a lifetime average return of 6% might be survivable – especially with a small pension portion.

But, watch out. Me thinks our pensions will – shall we say – be adjusted

Anyway, if you invest in such a way as to earn 3% in your aggressive years than not risking money means that you will have your choice of most of the Alpo flavors. That does NOT mean I don’t agree with your moves this year – but, it is VERY dangerous not to allow your assets to work for you when you are youngish.

Very well done Boghie, you are to be commended for your correct assumption of our measly money. I guess some is better than none. Wonder what the big banks and the corrupt cronies in DC do with theirs oops I mean ours, that make them so much wealthier than the middle class.:notrust:

 

[amoeba]

who is making 6%

well that is great:

But who is making 6%? certainly not birchtree, who has sat on equities since the beginning of time. What the heck is an "aggressive year"? One that you could have made 30% but you only made 3? Or one where you lost 30% and could have made 3?

It works both ways. And, because of that, it (buying and holding) doesn't work at all.

A guaranteed 6% would put alot more money in G-fund. The days of easy market money (and I made some) are long gone....but I will still try.

6% would be nice this year; judging from the tracker.....that's not a majority of us.

 

[Birchtree]

I happen to have a good many positions that were purchased back on the lows during October-November 2008 that were yielding much higher than 6% - those percentages will grow as the dividends are increased. The only place for money to be made these days is in the equity markets - companies are flush with cash and some of that will be returned to the common shareholder - of which I'm one. Besides, I think you're mine possibly tomorrow.

 

[Frixxxx]

Amoeba,

There are many ways to lose money. Here is one:

40 years old, 3.1% inflation,
$50,000 currently invested,
$6,000 / year contribution (increased by inflation)

OK Boghie do me next:

42 years old, 3.1% inflation,
$150,000 currently invested,
$16,500 / year contribution (increased by inflation) + 5% Employer match ($3,500)
How much Alpo supplement will I need?