amoeba's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

"The setup is so bearish that I expect to see another 'flash crash' of even greater magnitude on Tuesday or Wednesday."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article19908.html

 

[JimmyJoe]

.04% daily G fund would be OK.

 

[Handballer]

.04% daily G fund would be OK.

No doubt, that amount would keep me in the G fund.

 

[amoeba]

more damage ahead

Well:

I am thinking there is no rush to get back in this wk. All of the dips in the last 5 years, whether they have been corrections, bull-bear transitions, or otherwise, have witnessed the 20 DMA at least touching if not briefly (3-7 sessions) staying below the 200 DMA; this market is at 1-2 wks away from doing that. Right now, the 20 DMA in the SPY is ~1,120. Wouldn't make sense to bounce now - especially with 1,100 looking like a hard ceiling.

IOW, more damage ahead.

 

[amoeba]

Nice little sucker's rally today - in advance of the ADP and jobs report:

Might wanna look at the last 3-4 such incidences of this (selloff on a "good" report); in any case, I'm hoping that the market actually does close over 1,100 for a day, because that will cause the deep selloff below 1,050. In any case, this month, I'm going to rely on the shorter term DMA's (20 or less) and their direction. Right now, the market is on it's 9th day below the 20 DMA. Nice tight downward spiral.......Can't wait for that sub 1,000 hysteria. Nice selling opportunity this week, and a buying opportunity later in the month.....knock yourself out.

 

[crws]

yea... sucker rally is right, just like in '38

Nice little sucker's rally today - in advance of the ADP and jobs report:

Might wanna look at the last 3-4 such incidences of this (selloff on a "good" report); in any case, I'm hoping that the market actually does close over 1,100 for a day, because that will cause the deep selloff below 1,050. In any case, this month, I'm going to rely on the shorter term DMA's (20 or less) and their direction. Right now, the market is on it's 9th day below the 20 DMA. Nice tight downward spiral.......Can't wait for that sub 1,000 hysteria. Nice selling opportunity this week, and a buying opportunity later in the month.....knock yourself out.

 

[amoeba]

Re: and 1 more thing: you will have time to reinvest bcz...

And one more thing:

You will have time to reinvest because, historically on these deep dip corrections (if that's what this is); just to clarify the signal on the 20 DMA, it not only inflexes, but does so after it crosses below the 200 DMA; it did this 3X in 2005-2007; during that bull.

In this case, the 200 DMA is roughly coincident with the calender year low back in late Jan-Feb, whenever that was; I'm thinking - if this remains a bull, it will be a relatively clear, bottoming signal on the order of a week or so flopping under the 200 DMA before moving up.

If it doesn't, and you are 100% G like me, then its either a market collapse that you will be thankful to avoid, or such a sharp V the likes of which hasn't happened historically - that there would be no way to catch it other than sheer luck -- - - - which most of this market timing is anyway...

Remember the above post? Well - we're almost there......the next 5 trading sessions will be KEY!!!!!! Especially this coming friday, which if the recent trend continues would be what, the 6th down friday in a row? There are some very important resistance levels forming in the SPY - - - 1,110 at the top (which everyone has been selling out of recently - - - and 1,065 - 1,070 - - - which has resulted in buying the following 1-2 sessions. Alot of the decline since 4/23/10 has come on smaller volume. But last friday there was good volume in SPY, and most of it was down, just minimal buying interest.

What the heck are we in for monday-tuesday? I am guessing the most optimistic is a decline of 2% or less; and then a return to the 1,070 - 1,100 range; and then even more damage.

The less optimistic is that there is a huge selloff on one of the two days. Neither of these scenarios has the risk/reward for me to use an IFT, unless it is to wade into F-fund at the false mid-week peak of the C-fund.

BTW, I have just cracked the top 80 ranks in our autotracker as of COB 6/4/10:

#78

 

[Boghie]

Whoa there Amoeba...

I am in the Top 200

#200

Watch out for me...

I may hurt you as I fall

 

[Birchtree]

#78 may only be a fleeting moment in time - your lesson is coming so wait for it. You must admit you are having fun with our banter - that's the way it should be. Sometimes we make money and sometimes we play give back - it's all a necessary part of investing even for fiduciary retirement.

 

[amoeba]

gee - I'm right again - now what's the followthru

Remember the above post?
I am guessing the most optimistic is a decline of 2% or less; and then a return to the 1,070 - 1,100 range; and then even more damage.

The less optimistic is that there is a huge selloff on one of the two days. Neither of these scenarios has the risk/reward for me to use an IFT, unless it is to wade into F-fund at the false mid-week peak of the C-fund.

the above was last friday's post on what today (6/7/10) would be - - - which was the more optimistic result; so I'm expecting a brief bounce (selling opportunity) in mid-week, then "another friday". someone else can play this game, if anything, I look only towards an opportunity to pick up some cheap F-fund before the total collapse into the 900's by the end of the month. Asta - - - baby!!

 

[poolman]

Re: gee - I'm right again - now what's the followthru

the above was last friday's post on what today (6/7/10) would be - - - which was the more optimistic result; so I'm expecting a brief bounce (selling opportunity) in mid-week, then "another friday". someone else can play this game, if anything, I look only towards an opportunity to pick up some cheap F-fund before the total collapse into the 900's by the end of the month. Asta - - - baby!!

Good Job amoeba

 

[Birchtree]

amoeba,

I have it on fairly good authority that the 'Cooler' is looking for you. Don't befriend any strangers that are kind to you and stay away from public places. Some around these parts are familiar with the 'Cooler'.

 

[amoeba]

do yourself a favor

amoeba,

I have it on fairly good authority that the 'Cooler' is looking for you. Don't befriend any strangers that are kind to you and stay away from public places. Some around these parts are familiar with the 'Cooler'.

and I have it on good authority - me, that is - that the next two days will be the last selling opportunity you will have anywhere near 1,100 for awhile. So do yourself a favor:

dump that lame C and I fund while the dump is still open, and get thee-self into G-fund. You can buy back in when the dust clears at some three-digit number. Remember 3 weeks ago when you were happy getting into I-fund at a share price of 17.2 or so? Are you still happy? I did the same thing, dumped it the same week, and I'm still not happy enough to buy it back, and the share price is in the mid-15's.

Or - you can risk a continued scalping to the tune of negative 2% a week for the next month until this thing bottoms itself out who knows where....

 

[amoeba]

no gratitude and pity the fool

and I have it on good authority - me, that is - that the next two days will be the last selling opportunity you will have anywhere near 1,100 for awhile. So do yourself a favor:

dump that lame C and I fund while the dump is still open, and get thee-self into G-fund. You can buy back in when the dust clears at some three-digit number. Remember 3 weeks ago when you were happy getting into I-fund at a share price of 17.2 or so? Are you still happy? I did the same thing, dumped it the same week, and I'm still not happy enough to buy it back, and the share price is in the mid-15's.

Or - you can risk a continued scalping to the tune of negative 2% a week for the next month until this thing bottoms itself out who knows where....

6/11/10 - 12:37 PDT: Well - that's gratitude. I graciously told y'all what the market would do, it did it, and some of you took my advice, others (birch) did not. What's next?

My guess is a 7th consecutive low volume, negative, often selloff at the close friday. I pity the fool who leaves everything on the table. Very close technicals right now - close to - but not quite, at the 20 DMA. Another ski-jump collapse in the last 20 minutes? We shall see, soon.

 

[Birchtree]

You may not realize it but your tracker position is vulnerable - Tom went long today. There is a very high probability that I may blow by you on Monday like a twister.

 

[Boghie]

Hey Amoeba, thanks for the ski jump warning!!!

Black diamond skiers enjoy a steep jump. The final 1/8th of the jump was really sweet!

If we jump high enough, and with enough speed, I'll get to showboat a bit
And, if I don't have enough speed - it won't look so good
Maybe a mid-air collision with a Black Swan


Regardless, I think you have a tough choice to make. If we are coming out of a normal correction than you have maybe two/three trading days till you should politely move to the right.

 

[amoeba]

You may not realize it but your tracker position is vulnerable - Tom went long today. There is a very high probability that I may blow by you on Monday like a twister.

BWAHHHHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA:

go ahead....make my day......market did close at the 20 DMA, but did not recross it (in SPY). In any case.....I AM HOPING.....for your alleged big day monday.......because it could be sold into.

In any case....I'm not too worried about you picking up 4% on me......I will still wait until we have a clear(er) direction.....

This is now a complete crap shoot. My guess is that smart money will sell late on anything above 1,110 like vomit after a bad lunch. The market just didn't overshoot enough today to trigger that.

 

[amoeba]

Regardless, I think you have a tough choice to make. If we are coming out of a normal correction than you have maybe two/three trading days till you should politely move to the right.

And you have a tough choice to make as well. If this is another sucker's rally you have maybe two/three trading days till you will be politely thrown off a cliff with a rope around your neck.

The 20/200 DMA cross is significant in a normal correction, and also in a bull/bear transition. As you said - a tough choice. Don't think two up days marks the necessary end of the correction either.

 

[Boghie]

And you have a tough choice to make as well. If this is another sucker's rally you have maybe two/three trading days till you will be politely thrown off a cliff with a rope around your neck.

The 20/200 DMA cross is significant in a normal correction, and also in a bull/bear transition. As you said - a tough choice. Don't think two up days marks the necessary end of the correction either.

Amoeba,

The Seven Sentinals have been in a buy for some time. Early on there was lots of fluctuation. The past five days show an upturn - three up, one down, one down a little bit. This included late buying on a crappy news day. Also, the market was basically flat since May 20. So, was the market baselining?

I can understand a correction, but why a collapse.

We still have to grow 42.5% to match recent highs.

 

[PCRit]

I can understand a correction, but why a collapse

If you will allow me, there are many technical reasons to question this market.
This is just from the 1st 3 articles on Safehaven (lots more articles on the technical problems with this market).

“Panic selling followed by panic buying followed by panic selling, etc... In other words, we now have the precise condition necessary for a stock market crash to occur over the next few months. This market has flies on it.”

http://www.safehaven.com/article/17121/stock-market-internals-are-precrash-unhealthy


“New highs give an indication of market strength and new highs have not confirmed any of the rallies since the April high.”

http://www.safehaven.com/article/17120/technical-market-report-for-June-12-2010


“The Hindenberg Omen, McHugh's 90% Up/Down day divergence, the Trin and Tick extremes, and lack of buying volume are not "trading" timely, but strongly foreshadow an upset in the future.”

http://www.safehaven.com/article/17119/the-crash-of-2010-soon