amoeba's Account Talk

[SWAVET]

Your TSP could be worth $1,579,630 after 19 years. *8%

http://tspcenter.com/calculator.php

 

[Birchtree]

Frixxxx,

It's not the dollar amount that is important - it's the number of shares you own and are likely to accumulate over the next how many years. Currently you would have 11,219 shares of the C fund at a price of $13.37. Bring that level up to the 40,000 share range and you would be in a position to really make some money for retirement. Know what I mean?

 

[Frixxxx]

Frixxxx,

It's not the dollar amount that is important - it's the number of shares you own and are likely to accumulate over the next how many years. Currently you would have 11,219 shares of the C fund at a price of $13.37. Bring that level up to the 40,000 share range and you would be in a position to really make some money for retirement. Know what I mean?

Oh, I was just joking around....notice the ALPO supplement :laugh: throw in!!!!

I thought it was hilarious boghie threw that in there....:laugh:

 

[crws]

It was Friskies can cat food when I was in retail during the 80's.... you could tell because they were the old folks who never bought cat litter!
ps
When they went on sale 4/1.00 we would sell caseloads of it.
mmmm Ocean Fish

 

[amoeba]

Besides, I think you're mine possibly tomorrow.

If you mean you'll pull 1.1% tomorrow and pass me in the rankings?

Maybe, but I doubt it.......the market is at a pivot point......right on the 200 dma.......7 days over the 20 dma......still - this could go either way.....today's light trading and selling at the close is not showing confidence;

 

[crws]

gonna have to pass me first, -and I just got started!:laugh::laugh::toung:

I happen to have a good many positions that were purchased back on the lows during October-November 2008 that were yielding much higher than 6% - those percentages will grow as the dividends are increased. The only place for money to be made these days is in the equity markets - companies are flush with cash and some of that will be returned to the common shareholder - of which I'm one. Besides, I think you're mine possibly tomorrow.

 

[Boghie]

OK Boghie do me next:

42 years old, 3.1% inflation,
$150,000 currently invested,
$16,500 / year contribution (increased by inflation) + 5% Employer match ($3,500)
How much Alpo supplement will I need?

Frixxxx,

I think - based on your numbers - that when we finally do get together for a breakfast/lunch some weekend that you will be picking up the bill. In dog food terms, you'll be able to chow down on the stuff my wife buys our dog. He eats better than I do - especially since I keep sending so much of my income to TSP:nuts:

Here goes:

42 years old, 3.1% inflation,
$150,000 currently invested,
$16,500 / year contribution (increased by inflation)

After tax retirement income:

2% annual return = $17,053 / year
3% annual return = $21,512 / year
4% annual return = $27,147 / year
5% annual return = $34,264 / year
6% annual return = $43,244 / year
7% annual return = $54,563 / year
8% annual return = $68,812 / year​

And, you will get a smallish pension for your walkabout cash.

However, with the smirkiness dripping from your fingers and messing up your keyboard me thinks you were pulling my leg. Good job Frixxxxx.....

To all: I just use the Quicken Retirement calculator. I am going to poke around the site referenced by SWAVET - looks useful!!!

 

[Boghie]

Re: who is making 6%

well that is great:

But who is making 6%? certainly not birchtree, who has sat on equities since the beginning of time. What the heck is an "aggressive year"? One that you could have made 30% but you only made 3? Or one where you lost 30% and could have made 3?

It works both ways. And, because of that, it (buying and holding) doesn't work at all.

A guaranteed 6% would put alot more money in G-fund. The days of easy market money (and I made some) are long gone....but I will still try.

6% would be nice this year; judging from the tracker.....that's not a majority of us.

Amoeba,

I used the plural - Aggressive Years.
By that, I mean that you should be investing more aggressively when you have many years till retirement. It is wise for Frixxxx to invest more aggressively than Nnuut or Grandma. It is wise for BirchTree to invest aggressively because he intends to pass these assets through to little tots currently waddling about in diapers - or, maybe, his children. Honestly, I do not know your age. Maybe the ‘G Fund’ is the right place for you.

Unlike Birch, I do trade my account. Way too much over the past two years, but have always performed four to eight trades a year. I think it is kinda easy to track on bubbles and busts - the stuff in between is much harder or impossible. So, my goal is to beat the S&P by a point or two every year - and, much of the time, I have done so.

But, what I am stating rather bluntly is that a 3% average return in a 401(k) over ones working lifetime will NOT allow you to golf with Obama or take part in sailing regattas with BP's CEO. You have to put more at risk when you are young enough to aggressively invest or you will be putting way too much at risk when you should be more conservative. Losing 20% at age 40 is not like losing 20% at age 60.

Finally, the whole ‘Alpo Meal Deal’ thang comes from this: Till three years ago I didn’t know that I had a pension as well as my TSP assets. At 30 I was pouring mullah into TSP, not knowing anything about investing. So, behold, I found a retirement calculator and found I was looking at $11,000 a year in retirement income if I kept my money in the ‘G Fund’. I kinda figured that wasn’t going to cut it. I had to invest more at risk to avoid beans and rice and Alpo… Had I known that I had a pension I might have not learned some of the lessons of investing.

And, yes Amoeba, my return has been somewhat better than 0% for the past decade.

DCA and a little allocation shifting works wonders.

 

[jdphx]

Hey Boghie,


This is the retirement calculator I use...

https://employees.faa.gov/employee_services/retirement/frb/faaintro.htm

It is an FAA site, and useful for early out retirement eligible people like me.
But it also has a very capable calculator for all FERS and CSRS computations.

You can change lots of input values and see how they affect your bottom line!

Click the Piggy!!!!

 

[nasa1974]

If you mean you'll pull 1.1% tomorrow and pass me in the rankings?

Maybe, but I doubt it.......the market is at a pivot point......right on the 200 dma.......7 days over the 20 dma......still - this could go either way.....today's light trading and selling at the close is not showing confidence;

I agree. I think we are at a critical pivot point. A strong start yesterday and almost as strong finish in the wrong direction. Today not looking good early. Asia closed in the red and Europe is not looking good either.

 

[crws]

nice, thanks!

Hey Boghie,


This is the retirement calculator I use...

https://employees.faa.gov/employee_services/retirement/frb/faaintro.htm

It is an FAA site, and useful for early out retirement eligible people like me.
But it also has a very capable calculator for all FERS and CSRS computations.

You can change lots of input values and see how they affect your bottom line!

Click the Piggy!!!!

 

[amoeba]

Your TSP could be worth $1,579,630 after 19 years. *8%

http://tspcenter.com/calculator.php

And what 19 year period has gotten 8%? not the last 19 years for sure. and not the last 3 for 98% of the members on this site.

As for today's trade - very interesting - homesale disappointment was almost a foregone conclusion; except for the fact that many pending sales this month will not close in time for the rebates and will fall thru.

New homesales will also disappoint; as will job claims, and michigan sentiment. All things considered with the data this week, the market is holding up pretty good. It remains to be seen if the 200 dma will survive today, no less friday. If it does, a 2-3% upward fluctuation could be in order. I am expecting the downtrend to continue, however, and am currently looking into a big move into F-fund if it goes on sale this week.

 

[amoeba]

oops:

Something is happening - selloff starting in the late trade (11:45 PDT)

 

[Boghie]

And what 19 year period has gotten 8%? not the last 19 years for sure. and not the last 3 for 98% of the members on this site.

Amoeba,

The numbers are available - so why make the comment above.

For the 19 years from 1990 through 2009 the average return in the S&P 500 is 10.16%.

The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) - which is our PIP - for the same timeframe was 8.23%.

That 19 years included:

1. The 1991/2 S&L Crisis
2. The 2002/3 dot.com crash
3. The 2008/9 credit bubble crash

There were significant corrections as well

So, Amoeba, if you sat in the 'C Fund' from 1990 on your average annual return was more than two points higher than the impossible to reach 8%. You could have been drunk for two decades and made lots of money:nuts:

 

[amoeba]

my bad - only the last 13 years of zero returns.

Amoeba,

The numbers are available - so why make the comment above.

For the 19 years from 1990 through 2009 the average return in the S&P 500 is 10.16%.

The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) - which is our PIP - for the same timeframe was 8.23%.


That 19 years included:

1. The 1991/2 S&L Crisis
2. The 2002/3 dot.com crash
3. The 2008/9 credit bubble crash

There were significant corrections as well

So, Amoeba, if you sat in the 'C Fund' from 1990 on your average annual return was more than two points higher than the impossible to reach 8%. You could have been drunk for two decades and made lots of money:nuts:

Well make that only the last 13 years of sheer nothingness. My bad. And I was all C-fund in 1993-2001 (the dot com crash began in July 2000, I just rode that motha down 20% before bailing at 1,249.

The only drunken fool period was that 1992-2000 period. 8 years of returns, never seen before, never seen since. It has long since become a trader's market only, buy and hold won't work.

 

[amoeba]

who is mine?

The only place for money to be made these days is in the equity markets Besides, I think you're mine possibly tomorrow.

Eating crow again, are we? And where the heck is my lesson you promised me? The year is half over. I am piddling around at 2% (down from 5% in late April) and you are supposed to show me the light. It's dark out here.

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba:

2007 5.46
2006 15.74
2005 4.79
2004 10.82
2003 28.72​

Look at those numbers. Those are the S&P 500 returns for the posted years.

Those are not bad returns.

 

[Birchtree]

amoeba,

Your lesson will be revealed when the time becomes propitious. It can be summed up with five words but you'll have to be patient - but it's on the horizon.

One of the primary benefits of TSP is that you can continue to DCA when the market is on its' knees - buying many more shares for the account. The problem is that many people fail to see the virtue of throwing good money down the well after bad money - but that is how progress has always been made. The purpose of TSP is to accumulate a share base and that requires time in grade - once the base of multi-tens of thousands of shares has been built then the time is right to churn and earn. Fast money is made in other places - but good money can be made in TSP to supplement that retirement income but of course one has to participate. I'm in the game for life.

 

[Scout333]

amoeba,


One of the primary benefits of TSP is that you can continue to DCA when the market is on its' knees - buying many more shares for the account. The problem is that many people fail to see the virtue of throwing good money down the well after bad money - but that is how progress has always been made. QUOTE]

Birch, appears there is someone out there who agrees with you!

"Financial planner Allan Roth (CBSMoneyWatch.Com) doesn't work for Uncle Sam. But he'd like to join the Thrift Savings Plan because of its low fees and the safety of the special Treasury securities G-fund.

My advice

"I once thought it was impossible to time the market, but the field of behavioral finance has taught me otherwise. Investors actually do possess a knack for timing the market, unfortunately it's poorly. The TSP does what it can to control market timing by limiting transfers into stock funds to twice monthly. The rest is up to us.

"A good start is to pick an asset allocation target and stick to it. Rebalancing back to those targets means you must be doing the opposite of the herd. You must buy the C, S, and I funds in down stock markets, and the G and F funds in bull stock markets. That's how you buy low and sell high in what my son would say is a "duh" moment.

"If you don't have the discipline to do this, the TSP gives you yet another option. Buy the L (Lifecycle) funds. They will do the rebalancing for you."

 

[crws]

the other bonus, from the accumulation standpoint, is there is no limit to the number of contribution allocation ajustments you can do.