amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

I just went in ~1/3: 24G 40F 10C 15S 10I

not expecting anything; just doing my usual market timing instinct thing; maybe I'll get lucky; just trying to open that trader's block after last month's fiasco (-3% in 2 days).

I also want to maintain my lead in # of IFT's. I think 50 is a good round number for the year.

 

[Frixxxx]

I just went in ~1/3: 24G 40F 10C 15S 10I

not expecting anything; just doing my usual market timing instinct thing; maybe I'll get lucky; just trying to open that trader's block after last month's fiasco (-3% in 2 days).

I also want to maintain my lead in # of IFT's. I think 50 is a good round number for the year.

What are you coming from? Cause I only get 99% when I add those numbers up?

 

[amoeba]

About a dozen of us made IFT's for COB today:

Almost all, including myself, are putting chips into the pot hoping for an up-week. I personally think the jobs report (negative, largely or completely due to temporary census-workers completing their terms) is going to be bought into as long as it comes within 40,000 of the expected number (~ -100,000 or so jobs); if the loss is closer to -200,000, or more; then the market will sell. Otherwise, everybody knows the same thing that I do, and they will buy.....and I will sell....since I expect earnings to largely disappoint in the next few weeks.

Finger on the button..............

 

[amoeba]

Ouch!!!!

After finally reaching a whopping 2% for the year:

I promptly bet 35% on equity funds and get wallopped by surprise downward consumption and increased unemployment in Japan; which is spilling over everywhere. I re-allocated to 15% equities(CSI combined), 55% F, and 30% G.

The F-fund seems to be overpriced; but it keeps going up. I'm now more worried about the upcoming job number going much more negative than expected; if it falls still in the minus 100-150 range, stocks should be bought; and I'll have some left to sell. Tomorrow I expect to be volatile. If I end up flat I'll be thankful; if I make money tomorrow I'll change religion.

 

[amoeba]

hopeless, bottomless outlook

1,040 is not holding:

Accordingly, I see another minimum 60-70 points coming off the S&P down to the 20% technical level (975) before stabilizing. With the holiday and a pending jobs report which, if it follows Japan's miss, is worse than expected; that level - under 1,000 - could be reached at Friday's open depending on the US job number. Moreover, if the job number is a miss - the earnings and guidance to follow will be more in question.

I have made several bad moves in a row; and no, I did not see the trainwreck - I have been trying to apply the JTH "cardinal rule" of making decisions the night before; but that is not working.

One saving grace of this latest blunder of mine is that I limited the move to 35% at the outset. I figured a daily loss of 2% at most (wrong there), would be at least partly offset by an increase in bond prices - but I held back there because I felt the last week's move up in F-fund was unsustainable (wrong there as well).

The other saving grace is that, despite my stupid moves, I am still far better off than buy/holders, whose leader - Birchtree - is now ~7% below me, having lost ~16% in under 6 weeks. Next month is another 2 IFT's, and I maintain my lead in that category only (32 so far this year).

 

[amoeba]

Death Cross rally cometh

well: nobody cares anymore, I'm under 1%; well, I suppose that a positive return is worth something. So what's my next plan?

It's a death cross rally. Take a look at the charts from the last such cross, in 2008, even though the market tanked from it's peak of 1,560 in October to a trough of 1,290 the following March - it managed to touch the 200 dma at 1,426 by mid-May.

Of course, we all know what happened next - say hello to 683. And say goodbye for a long time to all of the above lofty levels.

So what happened then, and may happen now, is that a death cross of the 50/200 dma's may occur and there STILL may be at least a shot in the dark opportunity to pull even. But it does not look iminent....one of these days I will listen to coolhand's sage advice.....patience and wisdom....it's hard to listen to our own advice......however, when it involves patience.

 

[Birchtree]

Read and rejoice.

http://pragcap.com/rbs-get-ready-for-the-cliff-edge

 

[amoeba]

signals from birch, and the market

When Birchtree starts talking about buying individual stocks for cheap, that usually means the market is tanking and has absolutely no hope of coming back soon. That's what he did before the 2008 fiasco. While he was buying and holding everything in his TSP, watching it shrivel like an oiled bird carcass on the Louisiana shore, the world was rosy because

"stocks are cheap".

What the flip that ever had to do with the TSP, I dunno; but the more smiles and the less talk about his TSP, is a good indication of what other buy and holders are doing.

Which is nothin. They ain't buyin. Go look at the advance/declines. In almost any other scenario; today would have been the day for me to triple down into 100% S fund. Great idea, right? sure looked good at our IFT deadline, didn't it?

And I didn't. Why? Because we all knew there were day traders that bought at the previous close and were selectively selling DURING the day. We saw that 6 of 7 fridays, prior to last, and several other days. And, we're seeing it today, again.

The ADP report came in very light. Tomorrow is claims, friday is jobs, and next week, and the week after, major earnings. But I think earnings will be less important than guidance - and that is not looking good.

Headline news (at least the good kind) - is not forthcoming; that oil spill ain't gonna be capped in August. Count on it. Relief wells are an iffy proposition anyway, no less beginning 5,000 feet underwater. This will drag on for months, and months, and months, more. No telling.

I believe the home sales due tomorrow will also come in light. Taken together, few people are going into this weekend long, and even fewer by next week.

Thanks to Birch for his rantings.......nice indicator of flight to safety for everyone else.

 

[Birchtree]

Ah, today wasn't so bad - this is the perfect time to buy for the longer term. Tomorrow might be another opportunity. The late sell off was caused by a sell program - some hedge fund wanting to get even if possible. I'm not worried yet - a little pain is like rain - sometimes necessary for growth.

 

[amoeba]

yeah - the program is called "margin call"

Ah, today wasn't so bad - this is the perfect time to buy for the longer term. Tomorrow might be another opportunity. The late sell off was caused by a sell program - some hedge fund wanting to get even if possible. I'm not worried yet - a little pain is like rain - sometimes necessary for growth.

hedge fund my arse.....the program is called "margin call"; a whole bunch of coin is going down the drain this week and it ain't over yet....

 

[PCRit]

Re: yeah - the program is called "margin call"

and it ain't over yet....

AMEN...

Have you ever wondered what a “slow motion” Stock Market Crash looks like? Well, you’ve been watching it since last April 26. Several international markets have seen their 50dma cross under the 200dma (very bad sign). The S&P500 (down 15% in the last 2 months) and DOJ Ind (down 13% in the last 2 months) are real close to this cross under, the 50dma has been falling fast. A bearish Head & Shoulder has been confirmed in both S&P500 (close under 1040) and DOJ Ind (close under 9800).
G & F (which is where I've been all year) sure feel pretty good right now

http://money.cnn.com/2010/06/30/markets/markets_halfyear/index.htm

 

[amoeba]

so where are we????

hard to say where we are:

I-fund is up today; not my holding (I have 5% S); and F-fund is flat (I have 55% F); C and S held ground, relatively speaking; advance/declines were even; and volume in the indices was extremely heavy (check SPY, for example), especially for a holiday weekend coming up.

The jobs report could be anywhere from -70,000 to -200,000; but the focus seems to be around -100 to -110 thou; that would probably be seen as good news for this week. Problem will be, as with recent job reports, the perms vs. the temps. And then, the ADP and continuing claims already disappointed this week. I'm going to venture the guess that the number comes in at -170 thou; another disappointment. Anything less than 100 will be shocking, and result in +2-5% in our equity funds.

The potential range for the SPY close tomorrow is ~980 to 1070. And I don't have much clue where it will fall.....stay tuned, I guess.

 

[PCRit]

125,000 jobs lost.
NYSE Composite Index, 50DMA crosses under 200DMA.
S&P500 only needs 3.5 drop in 50DMA to cross under 200DMA.

Looks like “slow motion” crash is going to continue.

 

[amoeba]

well:

-125K is not bad news; well within expectations; and market sold off everything, including F-fund. So I drop closer to negatory, and birchtree falls farther into the abyss.

-Major earnings is at least a week off, and I'm expecting q3-4 guidance to drop significantly; and then it will really drop.

-I'm having a difficult time justifying anything except G-fund at this point

-My expectation is there will be a bounce, but not before the selling stops; the next three check points for this stoppage - if it happens at all, are:

a) ~978 - the 20% retracement from the 4/23 high;

b) ~900 - the last 50/200 crossover (when conservative buyers bought in, presumably) in late June 2009.

c) headline news - the BP leak get's capped, on the first try, some time around the end of Aug 2010 (if it doesn't, that won't be good). That could be result in +2-3% bounce right there.

-I was really hoping bonds would continue higher; but there seems some question in that as well, and with the 10-20% up/down days, it's hard to pick any advantage out of being in this market.

 

[JTH]

I'm having a difficult time justifying anything except G-fund at this point

Nothing wrong with the F-Fund. You know not everything goes up in a straight line!!! F-Fund is bullish on all timeframes and is just giving us a slight dip for a buying opportunity.

View attachment 9681

Oh and you better hope BP doesn't cap that well, near as I can figure they are the only ones supporting this economy right now...

 

[crws]

the problem, (possibly not a problem for equities) as I see it- is that gold & bonds (safe havens on a roll) took a hit the same day, 7/1, before the real bad news was supposed to be released.
The fact that a late day rally messed with the bears plans Friday afternoon may set up some relief next week as it is very benign for news.
The following week, especially if BP has not plugged the well- is when the drama restarts, with a slew of news including core CPI to be released.
http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicCalendar.htm


http://www.slate.com/id/2258810/
Deflation Nation
What's so bad about falling prices?
(bit)
The talk about the economy in recent weeks has been somewhat deflating. There's the ongoing crisis in Europe, disappointing jobs numbers, a falling stock market—and the prospect of deflation itself. Deflation—the evil twin of inflation—rears his ugly head with great infrequency. He hasn't been seen around these parts for nearly 80 years, and there's no committee that convenes to declare his return, as the National Bureau of Economic Research's Recession Dating Committee does for economic contractions.

 

[crws]

ps- FWIW, July 16th is options expiration.

 

[amoeba]

ps- FWIW, July 16th is options expiration.

and me not like it. Everyone better be prepared to move quickly - I suppose that means the next 45 minutes for those in the TSP; today's mich sentiment and bank earnings were not good; not sure the close will look like yesterday.

I left 7% on the table (combined CSI); 93% F as of today.

The top has been put in ~1,090; who knows what's next.

 

[PCRit]

POW, Right in the Kisser: Stocks Tumble as Banks, GE Trail Revenue Estimates

The best of 2010 might be behind us. The head winds for 2011 will begin to be discounted in the stock market in the back half of 2010. Some of the head wins for 2011 include:

1. Aging baby boomers spending demographics.
2. A spike in residential foreclosures pushing real estate lower by year end.
3. Commercial real estate continues to slide into year end.
4. Massive layoffs coming from municipalities.
5. Unemployment staying high or even increasing do to municipalities.
6. And, lets not forget the 5 Little PIIGieS and their implosion.

http://www.safehaven.com/article/17...ks-tumble-as-banks-ge-trail-revenue-estimates

 

[amoeba]

well - this slo-motion decline is killing me - I've never been good at catching knives:

I am trying to rebuild to get even with the G-fund; pulled in ~.7% since my last bottoming expedition into CSI (lost something like 1.4% over 3 biz days in late June, got as low as +0.6% for the year, having been near +5.0% two months ago);

rank #116 today (7/21/10); could be worse......could be better......wish it was....

I feel lost....no sense of market direction.....13/14 days down....next 6 days up...then down...then up....then down.....what the heck?