amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

tomorrow hopeful?

The forecasts on retail sales at the moment have been looking better. No sure bets, but a pause in the slide would be nice - something to buy into, perhaps? An up day would be even nicer.

A disappointment in that sales # - boy - that would hit hard. Hope not.

 

[Birchtree]

I happen to own more than several retail stocks and they are all doing just fine. Have I ever told you I have around 319 individual stocks in the Birchtree 300 fund? In the last two days this assortment of wall flowers cost me $126K in devaluation - but no mind. They mostly pay dividends and that is where I'm focused at the present time. I know you don't bother with individual stocks - but some day you will realize your limitations and break out of mediocrity and enter the real arena. Then you'll feel the true animal spirits in your being. Until then keep working.

 

[amoeba]

I happen to own more than several retail stocks and they are all doing just fine. Have I ever told you I have around 319 individual stocks in the Birchtree 300 fund? In the last two days this assortment of wall flowers cost me $126K in devaluation - but no mind. They mostly pay dividends and that is where I'm focused at the present time. I know you don't bother with individual stocks - but some day you will realize your limitations and break out of mediocrity and enter the real arena. Then you'll feel the true animal spirits in your being. Until then keep working.

Yes - you've told me a thousand times; usually when you are ready to go into negatory, like COB today. I'm not a big fan of dividends, that's just another way to reduce the stock's value. You have the money either way. I'd rather see the company do something with it to generate stock value rather than give it to me.

 

[Boghie]

Yes - you've told me a thousand times; usually when you are ready to go into negatory, like COB today. I'm not a big fan of dividends, that's just another way to reduce the stock's value. You have the money either way. I'd rather see the company do something with it to generate stock value rather than give it to me.

ENRON paid their investors in capital gains

Dividends are cold hard cash. They are good for the investor, the company, and even the bloated and grasping gubmint. A company like ENRON would not have been able to game the system with paper profit had they benn paying a dividend.

And, you are a dividend investor. The C/I have dividends...

I think I'm tempted to jump in soon. Myabe get another 10% wet:toung:

 

[crws]

I think I'm tempted to jump in soon. Maybe get another 10% wet:toung:

Watch out for the rocks when you take that big leap, chap. :laugh:

 

[amoeba]

uncertainty

light volume stocks, heavy volume bonds; my current assessment is that people are not buying, or selling, but mainly holding:

That's what I'm doing. The AGG price was very rich today. The way I'm currently allocated, however, I'll get more out of a bounce in equities than of bonds (and lose less if bonds slide, which can happen in a heartbeat.

So net-net, I'm looking for a sign of which way equities will go out of this midpoint (between 1,020 and 1,130 on the SPY). This either a pause on the way much farther down, or a potential mild reversal. If the former, I need to bail, if the latter, I need to double-triple down, probably to S fund, and then get the heck out of dodge on the first move up.

I've moved back to #127 on the tracker. Not bad - but not even G-fund territory. More patience and wisdom, and less greed, may get me there.

 

[Birchtree]

I'll be with you soon to provide moral support - perhaps even COB.

 

[amoeba]

leapfrogged by birchtree

How embarrassing:

Just for that, I tripled down under the expectation that tomorrow's job claims will come in line, or even light, if the latter - the market could be bought into. The recent light volume could exaggerate moves. And if so, I need to lighten up on F-fund to avoid a snapback there.

The ^VIX is near breaking support (23.9 vs. 23.5 200 DMA); if it breaks, this has been a near-term reliable indicator of SPY topping its 200 DMA, currently around 1,120 with hard support at 1,130. Since the current trade is still short of 1,100; I call it a buy. I will see how things go, and probably hold through the next GDP estimate, which is fairly conservative so I'm expecting that to meet.

ergo reallocation COB 30F-20C-30S-20I

 

[amoeba]

no news is good news

thin volume in everything today; stocks, bonds; on the bright side, TGT missed earnings and is up anyway so this (i.e., ~1090) may be confirming a higher support level. F-fund is down again.

Recent IFTs are very bearish (~8:1 in favor of movement into G/F), which may be bullish.

I will need to tough it out to see which way the market will break out (i.e., out of the 1,020-1,130 range in SPY). Too much ado has been made out of job claims, but that and thin volume makes my current position mainly a crap shoot. I'd really like to do better than G-fund AND birchtree (who didn't leapfrog me after all).

 

[Birchtree]

A 30% F fund means you are behind me COB. It will continue to hurt for the next nine days unless you jump to the lily pad. The same goes for JTH - no F fund for me.

 

[amoeba]

A 30% F fund means you are behind me COB. It will continue to hurt for the next nine days unless you jump to the lily pad. The same goes for JTH - no F fund for me.

As far as passing me today, we shall see, the market is still trading....until then....wish on.

No F means no 7% return year to date for you. F-fund is no lilly pad, especially at these levels.

 

[amoeba]

breathing room above G, and Birchtree

rank #132 today - 8/18/10

and +2.02% for the year. leading the pack in IFT's, but not showing much for it.....need to do better.

Currently up to my ears in risk (no G-fund, F-fund very inflated) and need some real dough to justify it, come on, market - show me the $$$$ - beat that 200 DMA in one of the equity fund indices!!!

 

[crws]

Re: breathing room above G, and Birchtree

rank #132 today - 8/18/10

and +2.02% for the year. leading the pack in IFT's, but not showing much for it.....need to do better.

Currently up to my ears in risk (no G-fund, F-fund very inflated) and need some real dough to justify it, come on, market - show me the $$$$ - beat that 200 DMA in one of the equity fund indices!!!

It's OPEX, man, take everything you see with a grain of salt and be ready to run...
Just look at history the week after OPEX, you can go back years, it's much the same...
Check this out-
2009 & 2010 March through now- pattern looks almost identical to me, it's just starting from a higher place...
The arrows are OPEX Fridays. Good trading to ya!

 

[PCRit]

In addition to an OPEX Friday, consider this. From John Crudele, next Friday the Commerce Department will revise the 2nd quarter GDP DOWN, again.

"the Commerce Department will announce that the nation's gross domestic product didn't grow at the previously believed 2.4 percent annual rate during this year's second quarter.

Experts expect the number to be downgraded to just 1.4 percent, although it might actually not be that bad.

Whatever the figure turns out to be, it'll get people's attention. And chatter will begin immediately about whether the economy has been contracting during the current third quarter."

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/business/double_dip_recession_talk_will_be_VS36Ey67dgYGJ6ycoVucWP

Also, today, jobless claims rise to 500,000, an increase of 12,000. Highest in 9 months.

 

[amoeba]

Yet, today isn't a friday; what is happening today is not only a bad job claims number but, contrary to what I thought, went the other way of where I thought it would fall - a miss - a big miss.

The recent IFT's are almost 95% bailing to G and F today; I will likely put in an early IFT to lighten up, which I may modify tomorrow morning depending on the open. Tentative allocation COB tomorrow (8/19/10):

20G:30F:15C:20S:15I

Sure, I'll lock in losses - but I do not ride markets down to the bottom either; which could easily be a retest of 1,020 if the GDP comes in worse. I sort of doubt the talk about a miss there. Which is one reason to hope. But I was wrong before. I have Peed away 5% since 4/26/10, and after today, would be better off stuffing my TSP in a mattress.

500,000. And last week's revised upward. Wonderful. Some recovery.

 

[nasa1974]

I have Peed away 5% since 4/26/10, and after today, would be better off stuffing my TSP in a mattress.

amoeba, I feel your pain. I was as much as 18% down and currently sit 11% down from my high point on 4/26. I could go into a dissertation of why but don't want to bore you. :blink:

 

[amoeba]

well - this sucks:

I'm about to follow birchtree into negative territory if I keep this up; lost 1.5% last week; and still holding 50% equity funds. The only worse moves would be to do nothing; and we all know what that means; the buy and hold - die penniless and old - strategy. Nothing was spared (FCSI shares all down).

I'm hearing conflicting, strong opinions about the GDP number (next week). I really don't think the market is controlled by OPEX, but it a bad GDP number could put a nail in the coffin for this year's return.

OTOH, a good GDP number - or even something close - could result in a violent buyback. I haven't made up my mind on this one. Not sure.

Do you feel lucky? I don't - better said - I'm not.

 

[PCRit]

June's trade deficit was much higher than the number used to calculate the 2nd qrter GDP, hence the likely revision down in GDP.

1st Hindenberg Omen on Aug 12
2nd "rounded" H.O. on Aug 19 (missed by 0.0186 of a real H.O.)
2nd real H.O. on Aug 20, so now it's a confirmed H.O.

Doesn't sound too lucky to me either

 

[crws]

post May, looks like a surfer's paradise- pick your wave and hang on:
if there is any solace to be had, seems we will have plenty of time to get on board once the train starts moving in the right direction

 

[Warrenlm]

...
1st Hindenberg Omen on Aug 12
2nd "rounded" H.O. on Aug 19 (missed by 0.0186 of a real H.O.)
2nd real H.O. on Aug 20, so now it's a confirmed H.O.

So now we have a 25% chance of a drop of 5% or more? I don't understand the HO focus (although Glenn Beck said "I like to call it the Hinderburg Omen" (! ) but hasn't that been normal "volatility" (aka Wall Street traders making commissions)?