-
Welcome to the TSP Talk Forums forums.
You are currently viewing our boards as a guest which gives you limited access to view most discussions and access our other features. By joining our free community you will have access to post topics, communicate privately with other members (PM), respond to polls, upload content, join our AutoTracker, and access many other special features. Registration is simple and absolutely free so please, join our community today!
If you have any problems with the registration process or your account login, please contact us. -
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
20% Off Annual Premium Subscriptions!*
Ends Jan 18... Click Here For More Information
* For new or current subscribers -
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
amoeba's Account Talk
- Thread starter amoeba
- Start date
Birchtree
Well-known member
Seems quiet over here in Bear land. It's time to get your knees wet - forget the ankle stuff. There is now an MACD cross over and obviously an uptrend in force. You are in a full blown bull market - so fight it all the way until you capitulate. I'm heading for the top 100 list by the end of next week.
Handballer
Active member
Sounds like you are a bull for real. Hope you make the climb to the top 100. I'm hoping to get back above 200. F fund is not cutting it.
Boghie
Well-known member
Birch,
I'm going to pray for a little more gain before I open my yak:worried:
Our single cell life form friend may not know a good market, but he is a survivour. This market has done absolutely nothing this year. And we will get a September/October dump as normal.
I'm thinking I will migrate to a 70 Bond/30 Equities allocation in a week or so. I think the traders will bid the market up faster than we might think - then take profits. I think it has already started.
Its all politics now.
Will the "Black Swan" get his wings clipped?
Yes: Good for the economy, and a boom to current damage levels
No: Bad for the economy, and we set a new Obama Economic Miracle Discout Level.
We shall see...
I'm going to pray for a little more gain before I open my yak:worried:
Our single cell life form friend may not know a good market, but he is a survivour. This market has done absolutely nothing this year. And we will get a September/October dump as normal.
I'm thinking I will migrate to a 70 Bond/30 Equities allocation in a week or so. I think the traders will bid the market up faster than we might think - then take profits. I think it has already started.
Its all politics now.
Will the "Black Swan" get his wings clipped?
Yes: Good for the economy, and a boom to current damage levels
No: Bad for the economy, and we set a new Obama Economic Miracle Discout Level.
We shall see...
crws-boghie-tom-and me, got it all wrong, and we don't know why:
clearly, the conventional thinking said stay out, I did, prior to a vacation, and come back to find this non-sense.
No clue. No idea. Nothing supporting this rally economically. Nothing in consumption, in jobs, on the street outside, mid-term elections shouldn't be positive, should it? nothing at all. The only thing I can think of, and is supported by the volumes, is light trading effect.
That's sometimes a consequence of bullishness (fewer sellers) - I have one more IFT, and not sure what the flip I will do with it. Could this market go up anymore? It shouldn't. It should hummm back down to the 200 DMA (~1,092) and then some. But stranger things have happened.
Here out west - some of the major home builders (KHOV, LENN, etc.) have surprisingly released but a few new houses out there - when I mean a few - I mean they have oodles of empty lots and perhaps a 1/2 dozen new homes to actually sell. Went to look and asked "so what is the deal here, are you going to build out, or what?"
The answer "we're going to sell these before we build more" sounds more like the "or what?" scenario. The asking prices are down at least 40%; and this -Sacramento- is the Capitol, normally buffered by government employment stability (except the last year or so). Trust me, it isn't looking good except for a few pockets of activitiy in the most affluent communities.
My (non)prediction for the end of year S&P; somewhere between 900 and 1,250, and, in doing so - it could still go from one end to the other and back again.
clearly, the conventional thinking said stay out, I did, prior to a vacation, and come back to find this non-sense.
No clue. No idea. Nothing supporting this rally economically. Nothing in consumption, in jobs, on the street outside, mid-term elections shouldn't be positive, should it? nothing at all. The only thing I can think of, and is supported by the volumes, is light trading effect.
That's sometimes a consequence of bullishness (fewer sellers) - I have one more IFT, and not sure what the flip I will do with it. Could this market go up anymore? It shouldn't. It should hummm back down to the 200 DMA (~1,092) and then some. But stranger things have happened.
Here out west - some of the major home builders (KHOV, LENN, etc.) have surprisingly released but a few new houses out there - when I mean a few - I mean they have oodles of empty lots and perhaps a 1/2 dozen new homes to actually sell. Went to look and asked "so what is the deal here, are you going to build out, or what?"
The answer "we're going to sell these before we build more" sounds more like the "or what?" scenario. The asking prices are down at least 40%; and this -Sacramento- is the Capitol, normally buffered by government employment stability (except the last year or so). Trust me, it isn't looking good except for a few pockets of activitiy in the most affluent communities.
My (non)prediction for the end of year S&P; somewhere between 900 and 1,250, and, in doing so - it could still go from one end to the other and back again.
crws
Active member
it's a crap shoot.
With that in mind, I posted some links on BT's thread.
Some images to ponder:
First AGG: This is 5 day, with Options expiration Friday the 17th. No exit out of bonds into equities today.
It was a picture perfect options week, I might add:
Next, perspective vs events. The big story today was about the recession being over a year ago, and the BP well is dead.
Whoopee!! Didn't you see the confetti fly?
I guess I'm a little cynical.
Looking at the Dow chart below, today's volume was half of Friday's but the market went up 11 times more.
In fact, 15 trading days is what it took to get here, +745.
Compare that to the "steady" climb of earlier this year, when it was thought we were in "full recovery mode"
15 trading days got us +495.
39 trading days later we tacked on +802 or FAIAP double the prior 15.
With that fresh in mind, remember how hot that rally seemed?
This rally, by comparison, should be a barn burner- see what you think.
Based on Mar/Apr this pace comparatively in 39 days should add +1240 to where we are by Nov 12. or Dow 11993.
I think it's a stretch and for now; too far, too fast without concrete data.
Even missing this leg, recent history would suggest that there is more time to get upside.
After all, getting there fast isn't going to do daboyz any good unless they can establish a range,
cuz this ain't going to 14k anytime quick with 9% unemployment and 1/7 in foreclosure.
We just got our prop tax statement- our value- down 11%.
That's in addition to the 20% drop the year earlier. -31% in 2 years.
Go rent Capitalism: A Love Story. Even if you don't agree with Micheal Moore, I think you will agree with some of the points he makes.
It's said that Election Cycle gains show up the 4th, 1st, and 2nd qtrs following the Congressional election,
and the Dow gains 50% off it's low for the year during this time.
That said, the low so far was 9686 July 2nd.
Historical data means from that point it is conceivable to have a Dow 14529 as a high next year.
If you would have sold Monday, May 3, (first trading day in May) and went to G for the whole summer, you'd be +398 as of today.
Note the leadup to June 18 OPEX week, and the week afterwards. Is 14k Dow conceivable by June next year?
ps- I had a .3% gain and crested 7% today. At that rate with 250 trading days, I'd get a 6.25% return on a monthly basis. Good enough for me until things are more certain...
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/harding/2010/0611.html
Since at least 1918, the stock market has experienced a substantial rally from the low in the 2nd year of every presidential administration to the high in the following year.
That rally has averaged a gain of 50% for the Dow.
With that in mind, I posted some links on BT's thread.
Some images to ponder:
First AGG: This is 5 day, with Options expiration Friday the 17th. No exit out of bonds into equities today.
It was a picture perfect options week, I might add:
Next, perspective vs events. The big story today was about the recession being over a year ago, and the BP well is dead.
Whoopee!! Didn't you see the confetti fly?
I guess I'm a little cynical.
Looking at the Dow chart below, today's volume was half of Friday's but the market went up 11 times more.
In fact, 15 trading days is what it took to get here, +745.
Compare that to the "steady" climb of earlier this year, when it was thought we were in "full recovery mode"
15 trading days got us +495.
39 trading days later we tacked on +802 or FAIAP double the prior 15.
With that fresh in mind, remember how hot that rally seemed?
This rally, by comparison, should be a barn burner- see what you think.
Based on Mar/Apr this pace comparatively in 39 days should add +1240 to where we are by Nov 12. or Dow 11993.
I think it's a stretch and for now; too far, too fast without concrete data.
Even missing this leg, recent history would suggest that there is more time to get upside.
After all, getting there fast isn't going to do daboyz any good unless they can establish a range,
cuz this ain't going to 14k anytime quick with 9% unemployment and 1/7 in foreclosure.
We just got our prop tax statement- our value- down 11%.
That's in addition to the 20% drop the year earlier. -31% in 2 years.
Go rent Capitalism: A Love Story. Even if you don't agree with Micheal Moore, I think you will agree with some of the points he makes.
It's said that Election Cycle gains show up the 4th, 1st, and 2nd qtrs following the Congressional election,
and the Dow gains 50% off it's low for the year during this time.
That said, the low so far was 9686 July 2nd.
Historical data means from that point it is conceivable to have a Dow 14529 as a high next year.
If you would have sold Monday, May 3, (first trading day in May) and went to G for the whole summer, you'd be +398 as of today.
Note the leadup to June 18 OPEX week, and the week afterwards. Is 14k Dow conceivable by June next year?
ps- I had a .3% gain and crested 7% today. At that rate with 250 trading days, I'd get a 6.25% return on a monthly basis. Good enough for me until things are more certain...
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/harding/2010/0611.html
Since at least 1918, the stock market has experienced a substantial rally from the low in the 2nd year of every presidential administration to the high in the following year.
That rally has averaged a gain of 50% for the Dow.
Warrenlm
Well-known member
Here in the Nation's Capital area, in close in counties, houses seem to get under contract relatively quickly. Prices stabilized long ago and are said to be on the modest rise. This is the place to be as long as the rest of the nation sees the federal government as the solution to all their problems. When everyone's thought is writing their Congressman, not their state legislators (who now have become irrelevant and mere execution arms of the Congress).... Amazing what 535 prima donnas can do. The support contractors/body shops and government related NGOs here are keeping the paper flowing and the Mercedes dealers leasing. (Anyone notice that the lead off questioner of the Prez on CNBC was the CFO for a "Veteran's service company"?
Well - either one of those "pockets of affluence" I mentioned in my earlier post, or an unfounded rumor. Today's sales data don't show that home prices are anywhere near stable; in fact, the JUNE prices came in lower than expectations (and that was before the buyer credit expiration).
There's not enough data from after the credit expiration to tell. And, as you know, prices are somewhat buoyed by historically low interest rates - and that may change as well.
I have a feeling there is something in the works related to the mid-terms; perhaps another round of free-lunch loan modifications, unemployment benefits, ARRA projects, clunker, and/or other assorted "stimuli". I for one, don't support any of it - and the unpredictability of such things makes market timing all the more difficult.
As to my next move, I am actually looking at doubling down on bonds to near 80% of the TSP. Starting late April (my peak return of 5%) - every move I have made since has totally missed the target. A real slow streak.
crws
Active member
Oh Brother Birchtree just got a haircut
Birch got a nice haircut today - - - - and just for those remarks I am inclined to double down on F, thank you.
You and the rest of the snorting bulls are always 2-3 workdays away from eating crow.
I see the next 4-5 biz days as time to recoup ranking position. The top has been put in at ~1,130 once again. You have IFT's - - - use or lose time.
Birch got a nice haircut today - - - - and just for those remarks I am inclined to double down on F, thank you.
You and the rest of the snorting bulls are always 2-3 workdays away from eating crow.
I see the next 4-5 biz days as time to recoup ranking position. The top has been put in at ~1,130 once again. You have IFT's - - - use or lose time.
Boghie
Well-known member
Amoeba,
You keep mentioning Kaleefornea. We are now (along with Illinois, New York, and other LibTard states) third world basket case entities. Our dalliance with socialism is failing – unexpectedly. The DC area will flop eventually as well. Basing your investing on Kaleefornea is like basing your investing on Bangladesh – or, whatever they call it this year. Yeah, we could still be 10% of the U.S. economy – but we are shrinking!!! Much of the rest of the country is doing better and will drag the U.S. out of the ‘recession’. We are a basket case of LOPs (Low Output People). :nuts:
Also, you keep looking at recent statistics that pertain to economic activity that is months old. You have to look forward, not backward. That’s what makes investing so much a crap shoot. I think investors are joyfully expectant of ‘The Black Swan Event’ getting his wings clipped in November. That includes the big investors that need some returns for their end of year stats.
Finally, is it surprising that home builders are shrinking - so is the home buying of the Baby Boom generation. How many 65 year olds are buying new McMansions? That will drag the economy, but collapse it – nope.
Now for a special note. The bozos at TSP seem to have changed their password requirement to requiring exactly eight characters. Mine was 10. So, I can’t get in. What a bunch of bozos. They will end up snail mailing a new password. Yuk. What if I want to run away. No can do.
Note 2: I didn't make the move I thought I was going to make. The market make another bull move. Why bail?
You keep mentioning Kaleefornea. We are now (along with Illinois, New York, and other LibTard states) third world basket case entities. Our dalliance with socialism is failing – unexpectedly. The DC area will flop eventually as well. Basing your investing on Kaleefornea is like basing your investing on Bangladesh – or, whatever they call it this year. Yeah, we could still be 10% of the U.S. economy – but we are shrinking!!! Much of the rest of the country is doing better and will drag the U.S. out of the ‘recession’. We are a basket case of LOPs (Low Output People). :nuts:
Also, you keep looking at recent statistics that pertain to economic activity that is months old. You have to look forward, not backward. That’s what makes investing so much a crap shoot. I think investors are joyfully expectant of ‘The Black Swan Event’ getting his wings clipped in November. That includes the big investors that need some returns for their end of year stats.
Finally, is it surprising that home builders are shrinking - so is the home buying of the Baby Boom generation. How many 65 year olds are buying new McMansions? That will drag the economy, but collapse it – nope.
Now for a special note. The bozos at TSP seem to have changed their password requirement to requiring exactly eight characters. Mine was 10. So, I can’t get in. What a bunch of bozos. They will end up snail mailing a new password. Yuk. What if I want to run away. No can do.
Note 2: I didn't make the move I thought I was going to make. The market make another bull move. Why bail?
Birchtree is wrong:
And unlike him - I put my money where my mouth is; I just went 80% F-fund; it will bounce this week based on a disappointment of consumer confidence. If not, there may be a bit more momentum in equities as well, so I am 20% there total.
I have learned, the hard way I might add, that cresting of technicals - like the 200/50 ema's; the hindenburg criteria; short term gaps (like 1,110, unfilled right now); 1,130, or even 1,148; or even the futures (through the roof for monday); can turn into a pot of sour milk real fast.
It has been a very tough year for me.....and the market.....I did well early, and then, nothing. Alot of our ranking list leaders have been treading water since May, if they made it through there unscathed.
Birchtree will do nothing (i.e., not use his IFT's) but talk as usual.
And unlike him - I put my money where my mouth is; I just went 80% F-fund; it will bounce this week based on a disappointment of consumer confidence. If not, there may be a bit more momentum in equities as well, so I am 20% there total.
I have learned, the hard way I might add, that cresting of technicals - like the 200/50 ema's; the hindenburg criteria; short term gaps (like 1,110, unfilled right now); 1,130, or even 1,148; or even the futures (through the roof for monday); can turn into a pot of sour milk real fast.
It has been a very tough year for me.....and the market.....I did well early, and then, nothing. Alot of our ranking list leaders have been treading water since May, if they made it through there unscathed.
Birchtree will do nothing (i.e., not use his IFT's) but talk as usual.
Birchtree
Well-known member
I have it on good authority that Coolhand has been recruiting members to join him in the #400 club - and you are most welcome to join that special category. I'm afraid you might be late to the party on the bonds - but that's what makes a market. Corepuncher at #26 says if I want some to come and get some - so I'm headed that way. The "Cooler" is still hanging around the golf course trying to meet a certain friend at #1.
Told ya so. All talk, no action (i.e. an IFT). However, today's gain in spite of very poor sentiment/confidence (and more to follow the end of this week), is a real sign of how emotion has taken over - at least temporarily.
I am letting it ride, at least till tomorrow's opening. Short term range (and I mean the next 4 weeks) I see is anywhere from 1060 to 1180. There should be opportunity to make, lose, or save money, but not all of the above.
new allocation
I just cannot let futurestrader seize my lead in # of IFT's. For #50 IFT, I am going:
50g:43f:2c:2s:3i
for the moment. I am concerned about the michigan sentiment, as well as the market shrugging off some pretty lame job and homesale numbers. Could be worse, but nothing that should normally bid up the market. I think October could be anything - from black to red - depending on what sort of nonsense the mid-term candidates are offering.
I wonder if the TSP is offering bonus bucks for most IFT's?
I just cannot let futurestrader seize my lead in # of IFT's. For #50 IFT, I am going:
50g:43f:2c:2s:3i
for the moment. I am concerned about the michigan sentiment, as well as the market shrugging off some pretty lame job and homesale numbers. Could be worse, but nothing that should normally bid up the market. I think October could be anything - from black to red - depending on what sort of nonsense the mid-term candidates are offering.
I wonder if the TSP is offering bonus bucks for most IFT's?
Similar threads
- Article
