amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

WTF? in-line GDP and job claims and the market sells off? maybe overbought, maybe sentiment change....anyway.....we'll see soon whether 1,140 or 1,150 breaks first.....

see ya next month.

 

[Birchtree]

Don't forget Cichago PMI was up. You could be seeing a bear head fake and we'll rally hard later back to this mornings SPX 1158 and beyond. Stay alert because the F fund will tank.

 

[JTH]

End of Quarter profit taking

 

[amoeba]

Don't forget Cichago PMI was up. You could be seeing a bear head fake and we'll rally hard later back to this mornings SPX 1158 and beyond. Stay alert because the F fund will tank.

Wrong on both counts - mr. nevertrade.......and a PMI of 60 is barely above the breakeven of 50, the concensus of 56.....and only underscores the contradiction between the positive news and the negative trading today. ^VIX was above 24, but has settled to "on the fence" territory in the 23's.

I'm staying out, for the moment. I found Tom's comments in line with mine.

 

[amoeba]

some serious volume on sideways action - especially in the AGG - not sure Y:

at this moment (10 pm PST), asia is up modestly, as is oil; fridays and mondays have witnessed larger moves, the direction of which has been especially difficult to predict.

If we are indeed in a bull market, I wouldn't be so worried about exceeding the 200 DMA, since that can go on for 4-6 months in a bull without touching it; and it has recently. But if this is just the 4th in a series of breakout headfakes; big moves into the equity funds would be costly. Anyhoo, I say the next 2 trading days will predict the market direction through the election.

 

[Birchtree]

If we can get 2 or 3 good market days next week you'll be making a whole new group of friends - those in the 300 to 350 tracker range. Some of those folks are about to zoom past you like you're moving backwards - just thought you'd like to know. Today could end up being a tom terrific day with an SPX above 1150.

 

[Birchtree]

http://pragcap.com/the-market-is-out-on-a-limb

 

[Birchtree]

Be afraid my friend really be afraid - the goblins are coming.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23153.html

 

[amoeba]

I'll make this quick (our office assistant is running a vacuum cleaner in the middle of the day - a crazy woman):

The uptick in spite of weak auto sales points to more shrugging off of mixed numbers at best; with 4 up weeks (this week is down, I believe), we are right on the cusp of whether the market will turn down, or continue upwards, prior to the election.

It's not what I think the market is worth - it is whether our TSP funds will go up, or down. As I said yesterday - I'm gonna wait another biz day before considering a move back into equities. A nice gap down - like 5-6% would be tempting; altho, as witnessed last May, that can turn into a pot of gruel pretty quick.

 

[Boghie]

WTF? in-line GDP and job claims and the market sells off? maybe overbought, maybe sentiment change....anyway.....we'll see soon whether 1,140 or 1,150 breaks first.....

see ya next month.

Amoeba,

A market 'sell off' on Thursday????

You do know you are talking about a 'sell off' of 0.3%...

Yowser, Amoeba. Another 10 consecutive days like Thursday and the market will be down a whole 3%.

Oh, the humanity.

What to do.

:nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

http://theguruinvestor.com/2010/10/01/wall-of-worry-is-strong-hulbert-says/

 

[amoeba]

If we can get 2 or 3 good market days next week you'll be making a whole new group of friends - those in the 300 to 350 tracker range. Some of those folks are about to zoom past you like you're moving backwards - just thought you'd like to know. Today could end up being a tom terrific day with an SPX above 1150.

I know that, birch - but making money and being passed is better than losing, so it doesn't really feel so bad. I think we both also know how momentum can change quickly, and has - in this market. Very tough to say.....I think we are between 1140-1148 for 6 straight days, and it's been 11 or so since first hitting 1141. Looks like strong resistence both up and down; with weaker resistence beyond that - say the low 1,000 to low 1,200 levels; the market did crack 1,130, but going much farther has been slow going.....

Anyway, it still feels like a good time to take a brief pause.....

 

[Birchtree]

Since the start of 2009 the total net new investments in bond funds is $620 billion. As of June 30, industrial companies in the SPX had a record $843 billion of cash on their books. When this money starts moving it will float all boats but you have to be in the boat to participate - if we get more quantitative easing....you guess the outcome. My bet is all this cash moving will be a catalyst for a tremendous bull stock rally. Therefore, once the fear of the 4-year cycles passes long equities is where I'll rest through 2011. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

http://www.safehaven.com/article/18423/basis-of-the-bear-market-rally

 

[amoeba]

I know that, birch - but making money and being passed is better than losing, so it doesn't really feel so bad. I think we both also know how momentum can change quickly, and has - in this market. Very tough to say.....I think we are between 1140-1148 for 6 straight days, and it's been 11 or so since first hitting 1141. Looks like strong resistence both up and down; with weaker resistence beyond that - say the low 1,000 to low 1,200 levels; the market did crack 1,130, but going much farther has been slow going.....

Anyway, it still feels like a good time to take a brief pause.....

sometimes I have to remind myself, and sometimes I'm right. I'm looking alot less like a fool than last thursday (tom too, according to the commentary).

 

[amoeba]

Staying out short of until <1,125

After examining the charts, and the last 5-10 years, it occured to me that the SPY never stays above major DMA's for very long (>3 months, usually much shorter) - even in a rock solid bull market it will repeatedly touch the 20 DMA, and occasionally the 50 DMA, before going higher. Not that I think this is a bull market - I don't know what it is.

But this market is well over the 20 DMA (1,121) and has been since 9/1/10. Far too stretched, too fast. Now that 1,140 has fallen, I think it 1,120 is within reach.

OTOH, the AGG went through the roof today.....I wish I had known this; as I expect a short-term reversal of that as well.....but you never know what will happen tomorrow, which is not far away.

 

[Birchtree]

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article23240.html

 

[amoeba]

wrong on all counts, so here's my next prediction..

After examining the charts, and the last 5-10 years, it occured to me that the SPY never stays above major DMA's for very long (>3 months, usually much shorter) - even in a rock solid bull market it will repeatedly touch the 20 DMA, and occasionally the 50 DMA, before going higher. Not that I think this is a bull market - I don't know what it is.

But this market is well over the 20 DMA (1,121) and has been since 9/1/10. Far too stretched, too fast. Now that 1,140 has fallen, I think it 1,120 is within reach.

OTOH, the AGG went through the roof today.....I wish I had known this; as I expect a short-term reversal of that as well.....but you never know what will happen tomorrow, which is not far away.

Wrong on all of the above counts, once again - stocks holding, bonds holding; bad ADP report - big miss; and nothing happens. If anyone has a smart prediction on the Jobs Report this friday, before friday, please post it on my thread. Anything I think, will probably be wrong....so if you want to know....I think jobs will come in slightly positive, it will be a huge upside surprise, conflicting with the ADP, and the stock market will go through the roof (1,200) on friday on light trading, mostly buying.

Remember, I have been wrong on almost every call this yr.

 

[Birchtree]

Hey, I've got your back on this one. Did you notice how nice retail sales were - the consumer lives. If we get a big bang tomorrow I'd unload that F fund like pronto.

 

[crws]

Hey, I've got your back on this one. Did you notice how nice retail sales were - the consumer lives. If we get a big bang tomorrow I'd unload that F fund like pronto.

uhhh,
I'm not so sure, BT....
The China Syndrome has yet to be resolved by Little Timmy.