amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

Zero'd Out in a heartbeat - - - worst move ever

3/4 F and a piddling of S,C, and I, and what do I get?


ANOTHER pounding in <2 biz daze. Nothing survived a loss: not equities, not bonds. There I was, safely in G - and I make a day move, and KABOOM. And this - following the best jobs report in what? years?

I put in another IFT to reduce bonds - I have no efffing clue what the flip happened today.

I'll tell you my suspicion. A small number of big money players set the tone; sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, just people with BIG money to toss about. It's not that they talk - they walk - they set the tone and if you get a few of them leaning south - - - south is where you go. And we did.

The flow into commodities is of greater concern, to us, because we don't have that option.

Stick a fork in me please. I think I'm done.

 

[Birchtree]

I'll be gentle - oops there goes another rubber tree plant to #379. If you swan dive and take out #396 TSPTalk will not be happy. Now that you are humble pie it's time to get in up to your neck rather than your current ankle play. We are in a bull market - don't fade the bull. Consolidations are a healthy part of the game - use these dips to load up. Forget the silly F and G funds - there's no money there. C'mon it's time to throw caution to the wind and get all in. Snort. I'll need your prescient advise on CLF soon when it hits $75.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Zero'd Out in a heartbeat - - - worst move ever

You got a POUNDING yesterday???

Your account lost 0.04%. :nuts:


Geez Amoeba, I hope you are retired with a trust fund. Otherwise your acceptance of risk will lead to < 3% average annual gains. That's Social Security.

If you have ten or more years you have to be in to win.

At least some assets have to be in.

Otherwise a bank account.

Beat Inflation.

Hope.

3/4 F and a piddling of S,C, and I, and what do I get?


ANOTHER pounding in <2 biz daze. Nothing survived a loss: not equities, not bonds. There I was, safely in G - and I make a day move, and KABOOM. And this - following the best jobs report in what? years?

I put in another IFT to reduce bonds - I have no efffing clue what the flip happened today.

I'll tell you my suspicion. A small number of big money players set the tone; sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, just people with BIG money to toss about. It's not that they talk - they walk - they set the tone and if you get a few of them leaning south - - - south is where you go. And we did.

The flow into commodities is of greater concern, to us, because we don't have that option.

Stick a fork in me please. I think I'm done.

 

[amoeba]

You'll note I didn't pull a dime out of CSI, and actually averaged up in that to 24%. More than ankle deep. I'm actually surprised I didn't go negative on that stupifyingly badly timed move - I haven't had a foul tip since 4/25/10 (my peak at 5%). Nothing bit whiff's.

 

[amoeba]

Re: Zero'd Out in a heartbeat - - - worst move ever

You got a POUNDING yesterday???

Your account lost 0.04%. :nuts:


Geez Amoeba, I hope you are retired with a trust fund. Otherwise your acceptance of risk will lead to < 3% average annual gains. That's Social Security.

If you have ten or more years you have to be in to win.

At least some assets have to be in.

Otherwise a bank account.

Beat Inflation.

Hope.

Nope. Methinks you read the wrong column. I got +.04% return left for this year. I lost -0.56% or something like that.

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

That 36% in the 'G Fund' only works in a crash.

And, right now, the 'F Fund' seems very toppy (that is just an opinion).

This might be a hard market to play - but the I is good for a dollar dump, the C is good for stability and ok foir dividends, and the S is good for coming out of a recession. The F will be terrible coming out of a recession. And, when will Bernanke defend the dollar - my guess is he won't advertise it (maybe he will simply not act on QEII). We shall see.

Basically, I learned earlier this year that the 'G Fund' does not protect an account from swings in the other funds. It just kinda sits there. It just doesn't offer nearly the growth needed to buffer a mild pull back. Its just dead weight for any market other than a crash.

 

[crws]

train's leaving the station pal, dump that F and get on board!

 

[Birchtree]

I have confidence he will move when his knees stop knocking - he's just not used to the joys of pain yet. Keep an eye on the VIX - currently at 18.47 it can fall to the 15 index level before you have to worry. That's where it was on April 12 before the April 26th high when we engaged a 16% correction. Investing is a lot like lifting heavy metal - no pain means no gains.

 

[amoeba]

Birchtree raises a good point and a bad one on volatility; the good being that it may not have bottomed; the bad being that it is close to bottom and that is viewed as a peak in complacency. But technicals aside, every additional consecutive job number that improves, should be favorable. I think we are at 3 weeks of declining claims, and 1 or 2 positive net jobs. I think a better dent in the unemployment rate could do wonders for the markets. Not saying it will happen - but it looks like it could go down. Not big time job growth - but at least a declining unemployment rate.

The pending cap gains tax cut extension (not sure if it is baked in or not) should be worth 5%.

With the <1% rule, I can add up to 3% every other day on a rising allocation of 0.01% or more.

The commodity run is a relatively new wrinkle (though not unique this decade); which could sap money from our TSP choices.

The bond thing was a bet; it has been run up - but so have stocks. Like Boghie responded, G is basically dead money - except in a crash (and never say never; that's where I was during the last one).

 

[Birchtree]

You fell into a burning ring of fire as you go down the flames go higher - #400? Now is the time to load up the truck before panic engulfes you.

 

[amoeba]

You fell into a burning ring of fire as you go down the flames go higher - #400? Now is the time to load up the truck before panic engulfes you.

Birch, you need to read the posts. I have used my 2 IFT's already to load up on equities to the tune of 24% (more than your move, since I had more dry powder than you), and can add after that only if/when the allocation position in your TSP exceeds 0.01% (round up, using the <1% rule).

That said, if this week's move is technical, I am expecting some sort of deadcat based on the approach of the SPY to it's 20 DMA (simple) - which I will sell partially into, but not beforemonday. I'm concerned that the market reaction following the institution of QE, and some of the weak guidance in techs (CSCO) could mushroom; but I plan to hold most - and even add to the position at up to 3% if the market moves back.

 

[Birchtree]

Now you are not stuck but be careful of that door in the floor. All those G funders supporting you will hold as you head for #400. You can always panic and head for the G. Or better still just let the piranha nibble your ankles. Anyway you know I'm just having a little comeuppance and don't mean anything harmful. You'll get a chance for redemption 12/1.

 

[amoeba]

told ya so (my post last night from IT's msg board):

IT:

.....my thinking is countertrend down to the 50 DMA in all the index majors.
.....I'm hanging in there, somewhat, also.

And, our end-of-biz-day-IFT's can do nothing about it. Just to keep the boogy on the market I am leaving 9% in (withdrew 9% to G, averaging down for second time this month). That should be good for another -2% down. If I were to pull everything to G, S fund would rocket to the sky, so this way, I can drag y'all down with me......

 

[amoeba]

Low volume narrow range = no clues

The title says it:

very narrow trading range, low volume, on the SPY, and no information as to what the next move will be. I was hoping for an up day to catch and sell on, but didn't get it; so stayed put - I am guessing I am not the only one looking for a blip to get out before the big move to the 50 DMA. Give me 1,190 and I will call it quits til december.

Anything could happen, but only one thing will, tomorrow.

 

[JamesE]

Re: Low volume narrow range = no clues

Give me 1,190 and I will call it quits til december.

Looks like you'll get your wish today. I'm hanging strong, I personally think Nov has some left in it.

I knew that crap about Ireland was bogus, the "engineers" made a bunch of money this week.

 

[Warrenlm]

JTH's comparison chart shows there's much more upside left. I think.

 

[Birchtree]

The eight days trading until December are going to be painful for some - not a good idea to fade the bull. There is usually more frustration when the train leaves one on the platform. Yup, the Grand Trunk is on the move.

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba, you spend a lot of time in a fund making 2.5%.

 

[Birchtree]

At #394 you are almost to the promised land - a couple more weak days and you'll arrive.

 

[amoeba]

Boghie's implicit point - that G isn't a place to make money, is one main reason that people are taking on risk; there isn't an option; interest rates are too low; the question remains - is this the way it should be?

The answer is no now, and no in the foreseeable future. The odd thing about today's environment is that, here, low interest rates are not resulting in inflation because - for the moment - it is balanced by loss of demand from unemployment and reverse "wealth effect" (home prices and market assets).

This, and other things, make it a tough market to guess at - and it's been especially tough for me this year. As for the rest of this month - heck - I really don't know. Volume today was good, but mixed. Foreign markets are continuing down, but for how long? The 50 DMA was not reached, so are we going to head past the 20? To new highs? Maybe. Or was this a headfake that will be sold into on traditional up days during late November? The month could end anywhere from 1,160 or 1,230, and my guess is it won't be very close to the middle of that range.