amoeba's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

OM Gosh now at #406 - not to belabor the point but if you don't get off the potty you'll be reaching for #416 by the close on Friday. A new yearly high in the Dow real soon.

 

[amoeba]

Birch - the DOW isn't an option on the TSP; when it is - you can talk about it - but today that's just babble. I don't have a dime in bonds, and there was a monthly outflow so that comment doesn't jive.

As for your 80% increase from March '09; exactly what fund are you talking about? You were fully invested when it tanked, rode it down, and rode it up. I rode it up to 1,249 in 2,000, then bailed. You haven't made that back yet. So what's your point? You didn't make a dime in a decade? Noted for the record.

Boghie - I'm actually posting my daily thoughts as a record to understand where my thinking is in relation to the market; and, you'll see my last prediction was for a month (not a day).

I think this is about the worst time ever to be in the market....horrible jobs reports being shrugged off, 52-week highs, but....that won't make me not roll the dice this month.......I will....soon.

 

[Birchtree]

Thanks for the history lesson. One of these wonderful days the light will come on and you'll join the bullish camp - keep me posted. Until then Stone Cold 416 is your number. Just so you will know I'll probably have $1M in my TSP by the end of 2011.

 

[amoeba]

nothing doing - - - -light trading day all things considered; only 100M shares SPY. A whole lot of good feeling out there; which has not been good to me. Last time I felt this good about the market, I dropped 2% in a heartbeat, doubled down, and quickly went from 5 to 2% for the yr. That was late April. The market was right around where it is the last 3-4 daze. Still wowwed over that positive reaction to a really lame jobs number, and continued lame homesales. Who woulda thunk it? not me.

The cap gains taxcut extension kicks the can down the road a couple years only; and I'm still wondering who is paying for this. Besides us, and our measly $7 billion Fed workers will give back in foregone raises.

My next couple months of moves will likely be as a follower.

 

[amoeba]

tax cut deal seems untenable - fireworks soon?

Well, here we are; 3 weeks from the end of year; and the tax cut extension - which is an expensive - horrible idea anyway; isn't a deal yet. The cost of kicking the can down the road for 2 years, 900 billion, is alot of coin. And what then? I can only guess is that the hope is the economy will be so much better that no one will notice.

Problem is - it is just too much money, and the Democrats (other than the president), are unlikely to support it.

The market is in denial - trading sideways - sometimes heavy, sometimes light, but pressing its upper limits. These sideways movements tend to be followed by breaks in one direction or the other; that I have been unable to predict, so far.

Still a follower - and the leaders - aren't budging.

 

[Warrenlm]

Mall traffic is up says CNBC expert this am. Consumers are spending. Unemployment for college educated is "only" 5%. Can kicking has always kept the serfs happy in the past hasn't it?

 

[amoeba]

News alert from a serf

Mall traffic is up says CNBC expert this am. Consumers are spending. Unemployment for college educated is "only" 5%. Can kicking has always kept the serfs happy in the past hasn't it?

Yes it has, and that's the problem: I'm a serf - part of the masses that gets in the market at exactly the wrong moment.

News alert - Futures_Trader, a top 20 returner the past 3 years, who hates losing money so much he rarely does, has just moved 30% in. He's second to me in IFT's, so I better get moving before he catches.

 

[Birchtree]

Hey #423 and headed for #435 this will cheer you I'm sure.

http://financialsense.com/contributors/scott-middleton/acceptance-of-reality

 

[amoeba]

well:

It looks like the democrats have no spine; and caved; this will prop up the markets in the short term;

I may go in ahead of the retail sales number on 12/14, I expect it to beat expectations - altho that may be priced in, if that happens, it may get a jump monday from other rally "chasers", like me, and who sell the news when it comes. I will likely go in at least 30%, probably more for COB friday before. It would be nice to be right one of these days. Anyhoo, it looks like F_T has some reasons for what looks like an average in - so we'll see how it goes.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Re: News alert from a serf

Yes it has, and that's the problem: I'm a serf - part of the masses that gets in the market at exactly the wrong moment.

News alert - Futures_Trader, a top 20 returner the past 3 years, who hates losing money so much he rarely does, has just moved 30% in. He's second to me in IFT's, so I better get moving before he catches.

ROFL...amoeba, u creepy-crawly single-celled organism, you. Top 20 huh? I had no idea. Just bein' here longer than most probably is all. My best strategy I can see is 2 lower/higher closes above/below the 8 day ema. Would have been in the past 2 weeks, but got scared out the end of last month since we were getting two full IFTs back. I really don't think the <1% strategy is practical...but it keeps things interersting.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

well:

It looks like the democrats have no spine; and caved; this will prop up the markets in the short term;

I may go in ahead of the retail sales number on 12/14, I expect it to beat expectations - altho that may be priced in, if that happens, it may get a jump monday from other rally "chasers", like me, and who sell the news when it comes. I will likely go in at least 30%, probably more for COB friday before. It would be nice to be right one of these days. Anyhoo, it looks like F_T has some reasons for what looks like an average in - so we'll see how it goes.

My reason was cuz we're above the 8 day ema, and my next move might be dump the rest in S with 1% in every other fund..just to keep ahead of you in IFTs ~~

 

[amoeba]

Sell warning - amoeba moves in

My reason was cuz we're above the 8 day ema, and my next move might be dump the rest in S with 1% in every other fund..just to keep ahead of you in IFTs ~~

Well - here's my sell warning: I just put money in (40%). So even if the retail sales beats expectation; everyone will sell on the news tomorrow just to punish me on the end of year. Last 2X I tried this, the market flopped almost 2% within 48 hours.

2010 is a really bad year for me.....I am working on a different, "follower" strategy for next year; probably will stick closest to F_T since he's just about the only last 3 year top 20-er who didn't get flushed out to sea in 2008; just about everyone else who is at the top, now, got taken to the steam cleaners in 2008.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

I'm going to try to stick to 2 day lower/higher close below/above 8 day ema as my signal. My actual return for this year is 8.25%. My autotracker return is greater because I didnt update my trades for a few months and left it in S on autotracker. Selling S&P put options, I have done 17.77% net ytd, with a lot less headache, risk, and time involved.

 

[amoeba]

Should be a no-brainer up day tomorrow, but.....

Asia opened modestly lower as I speak (12/13/10 4:30 pm PST); remains to be seen if my IFT's continue to be the kiss of death; passage of the taxcutextension plus a beats on the retail sales should be a no-brainer; but if it isn't; I am sticking to my guns; namely - stop losses of >2% by IFT deadline are going to be reacted to; I dunno if it will be a double down, or a bail, but I will do something. Looks like F_T just doubled down; as his post shows; he's been successful at short-term momentum plays.....

 

[Birchtree]

#435 - Bingo.

 

[amoeba]

As per usual:

Market sold off like clockwork the day after I put money in; this is starting to look like a buy rumor/sell news situation; I_T already took a big leap on the bond flop (100% F); while F_T remains doubled down on S (~76%).

I am off to all day meetings early tomorrow; so if someone has a clue how this week will end up - and is willing to put their money (IFT) where there mouth is....post it here....I'll check back ~7:30 am pst to decide.

I'm countin on ya.

 

[crws]

As per usual:

Market sold off like clockwork the day after I put money in; this is starting to look like a buy rumor/sell news situation; I_T already took a big leap on the bond flop (100% F); while F_T remains doubled down on S (~76%).

I am off to all day meetings early tomorrow; so if someone has a clue how this week will end up - and is willing to put their money (IFT) where there mouth is....post it here....I'll check back ~7:30 am pst to decide.

I'm countin on ya.

follow the survey....

 

[Birchtree]

Get out while you can - save yourself. You'll be at #444 before the week ends. (pun intended)

 

[Birchtree]

http://www.safehaven.com/article/19344/bad-breath

 

[amoeba]

all I want to do is bump birchtree's insane ramblings from the top of my board:

I don't mind a little kidding, or even alot of it. But please - try to say something intelligent along with it once in a while (for Birchtree - it's been quite a long while).