amoeba's Account Talk

[JimmyJoe]

It's easy to jump on someone when they're down. Maybe there was some give and take for a while between you two. Could be both have learned form this experience. BTW...It's hard for FERs folks to compete with the CSR folks in this TSP racket.

 

[Birchtree]

amoeba,

OK, Johnny Depp.

 

[amoeba]

Look:

I'm not sensitive - nor did I lose money over the last 3 years, or the last 12, like Birchtree and his beloved C fund did. That's not a matter of opinion. It's math - he can claim otherwise till the cows come home but no one else believes it. What would really set that matter to rest - is if this bulletin board ran a 3 year retrospective return on its members.

I'll lower my standards - rather than sounding intelligent - maybe Birch can offer something here, on my board, that isn't purposefully stupid. It's just clutter - and that star rating (3 of 5) on Birch's board - isn't much to boast about.

On that note; my latest IFT is a traditional historical timing play; we've had a pre-holiday run-up based on the "sure-thing" tax-cut extension; and that may make for some non-traditional sells later on. 30-year mortgages crested 5%; and there may be a short-term play on bonds (note I_T and his followers) - but - bonds have run up for quite awhile, and may adjust the other way. I'm contemplating some F-fund at these levels. Maybe next week. It would be nice to keep my string of 18 positive years going.

The sentiment survey should approach sell territory, but it may not and I'm not acting strictly on that.

 

[Birchtree]

If you mouse the stars you'll see that you have 3 votes - I have 49 votes. You tell me what it means. You apparently still do not understand the concept of dollar cost averaging. Since I've been over 50 for a long time I've benifited from the catch up amounts for contributions and that has allowed me to accumulate more shares on the lows - do the math with the C fund at $8.00 and below - all the way down, circling the drain and then all the way back up. DCA is the redeemer and brings you back quicker. I don't have that benefit going forward so I'm going to try and swing trade more often and make some really serious dough. Is that 18 years of 1% gains - stellar results.

 

[FAB1]

How did you come to attract the constant negative attention of the Snorter, O' Lowly One?

Is it your name?

 

[Birchtree]

He was trying to provide me some of his special quidance earlier in the year - I'm just returning the favor. He certainly needs kind support while he heads for #444 on the tracker.

 

[Devilduck]

LOL. I always thought snorter was referred to as a bullish sentiment, I could be wrong.

 

[Boghie]

Birch, I don't think he listens well...
But, you have gotten snippy rather than constructive...

He is convinced you are broke and hoboing trains or something. It doesn't take high math to figure out that you are now better than even on the losses of 2008 when compounded with new shares purchased at $7 bucks. My guess is you went in the black early this year, eh...

And, yes, Amoeba... Birch could have paired his losses by guessing the market - but that wasn't his style. And, an aweful lot of the market timers that posted here in 2008 don't post here in 2010, eh.

To each there own. My one recommendation to you is - and always has been - that you have to be in to win. I don't know your age, your asset holdings, and anything else about you (other than you are a Kalefornea redident like myself) but it is as dangerous to grow your earnings at 2% when the market booms 30% as it is to lose 30% when the market dumps 30%. Those 30% booms are rare. Something to hold. Something to cherish. To make G Fund returns in a boom year and a normal year means you have to average higher in other years when the market is not so good.

Like you I did not think this year was going to be worth anything. I think my preseason guess was +3% and I was hoping to make +6%. But it was better. So, my conservative leanings trimmed some growth - but I let the market decide my moves in the second half. You gotta go with the flow a bit and not believe every year is a depression.

 

[amoeba]

Percentages are misleading. It is much better to avoid a 30% loss than to catch a 30% gain.

Start at 100 and lose 30. You have 70. You will need 30, or a 30/70 (43% gain) to make that up. If you lost 40% one year, you will need to make a 67% gain to make that up the next year.

 

[Boghie]

Percentages are misleading. It is much better to avoid a 30% loss than to catch a 30% gain.

Start at 100 and lose 30. You have 70. You will need 30, or a 30/70 (43% gain) to make that up. If you lost 40% one year, you will need to make a 67% gain to make that up the next year.

Amoeba,

You are right, but I factored that in. You have to factor in compounding and contributions over a period of three years now. Every dollar contributed in the 'C Fund' from August 2008 through August 2009 has grown tremendously. And, he locked in NO losses.

Could Birch have done better - yup...
Some did...
Many did not...

Losing less in a dropping market is one way to do better. But you have to make close to market returns during a rising tide to take advantage of such a market move. You have to be somewhat right twice to win that game. Not too hard when one takes a longer trading view, but you have to be in to win when the points are incrementing on the board.

 

[JTH]

We've bantered over this so many times I've lost count. Buy & Hold is dead, and I'm in pretty good company on that statement. DCAing in a bear market is suicide too, anyone ever heard of catching a falling knife? When you buy on the way down you accept substantially more risk then when you DCA in a Bull market.

I've made the offer for anyone to prove Buy & Hold works, and to back it up, yet nobody has. Meanwhile I've also proven a simplistic momentum system far exceeds that of buy and hold AND DCA.

 

[crws]

We've bantered over this so many times I've lost count. Buy & Hold is dead, and I'm in pretty good company on that statement. DCAing in a bear market is suicide too, anyone ever heard of catching a falling knife? When you buy on the way down you accept substantially more risk then when you DCA in a Bull market.

I've made the offer for anyone to prove Buy & Hold works, and to back it up, yet nobody has. Meanwhile I've also proven a simplistic momentum system far exceeds that of buy and hold AND DCA.

Evidence in fact, The Sentiment Survey...

 

[FAB1]

Im PLACING a good DEAL of blame for my Poor year SQUARELY on the board of TSP.

More than once, mind you I would have been IN, BUT I HAD NO (blank) IFTS!!

so there!

 

[amoeba]

Birchtree = boring (snore, not snort)

title says it all

 

[amoeba]

well, this is looking like I'll be out of dreaded negatory at COB today:

Everything is looking ultra-rich - what are we at? 13 of 15 up days this month? And just approaching the seasonality effect? With no extra tax looming, is this the ultimate no-brainer - at least for this month?

If the economics hold up to expectations (homesales, sentiment, job claims), this could be a pretty good last 5 trading days on what will be superlight volume. Then the fun starts again in Jan-Feb.

My finger is on the button - I'll probably ante up today some time on the second IFT.

 

[amoeba]

Holy moly:

What a week - talk about a run - up; I am in only 40% and erased the negatory and am up for the year, albeit a trivial 0.3% or so. Honestly, I can't see any reason to sell - more to buy - and that's how I voted on the survey (which is now a strong sell).

Last few times I expected a decline, it was much less than I thought, and, if memory serves - I thought there would be one after 1,235 and where what - 25 pts north of that and ^VIX <16? or is it 15. Anyway - that's a heluvalot of complacency.

So tom says is it worth it to go to 1,275 - his top target - well, is it? How about 1,300? And if it drops some, is that "bad", or will that be a buying opportunity? I'm not trying to figure out what I would do, but what everyone else will do. My prediction, at least very short term, is no-selling, ergo - at least another 3-4 biz days of upward drift.

 

[crws]

Are you smarter than the Survey? Hint.. 2/535 (.37%) on the AT are over 30% YTD

Holy moly:

What a week - talk about a run - up; I am in only 40% and erased the negatory and am up for the year, albeit a trivial 0.3% or so. Honestly, I can't see any reason to sell - more to buy - and that's how I voted on the survey (which is now a strong sell).

Last few times I expected a decline, it was much less than I thought, and, if memory serves - I thought there would be one after 1,235 and where what - 25 pts north of that and ^VIX <16? or is it 15. Anyway - that's a heluvalot of complacency.

So tom says is it worth it to go to 1,275 - his top target - well, is it? How about 1,300? And if it drops some, is that "bad", or will that be a buying opportunity? I'm not trying to figure out what I would do, but what everyone else will do. My prediction, at least very short term, is no-selling, ergo - at least another 3-4 biz days of upward drift.

Obviously, I'm not...
But !
Good thing there will someone to close the gate when all the cows are in. You and BT will be together at last!
Dude, lest I remind you of having 1/3 more holdings for compounding this EOY - IF YOU HAD FOLLOWED THE SURVEY. :nuts:

 

[FAB1]

Um...The Survey rolled over to a Sell - what to do?

 

[Birchtree]

Shake, rattle and roll.

 

[amoeba]

well, crws, coming from you (100% S fund) - I believe you are kidding:

But seriously, look at today, volume declines further (50 million SPYs), and there STILL is no significant selling; so look, I know what we "should" be thinking, namely:

All this economic activity is a direct result of stimuli, the latest in the forms of tax cuts and tax cut extensions; and the resulting mentality that this is the basis for a "recovery".

Do I believe that? (NO) But that doesn't matter. YOU believe it, en masse. That makes YOU buy and hold longer than you should, and drives the market higher. Will it end? Well, yes. Of course it will - probably the day after the temporary tax cuts are voted out. But that can has been kicked down the road another 2 years. There is still confidence in the USD$.

This type of market can easily go to the moon, and back. Its nutz. All that Mr. Survey is telling us is that, as a group, we are all wrong.

I'm having a bit of trader's block, finger wavering between doubling down or getting out. Wait a minute, F_T is catching up to me in IFT's! Can't let that happen.