amoeba's Account Talk

[crws]

well, crws, coming from you (100% S fund) - I believe you are kidding:

But seriously, look at today, volume declines further (50 million SPYs), and there STILL is no significant selling; so look, I know what we "should" be thinking, namely:

All this economic activity is a direct result of stimuli, the latest in the forms of tax cuts and tax cut extensions; and the resulting mentality that this is the basis for a "recovery".

Do I believe that? (NO) But that doesn't matter. YOU believe it, en masse. That makes YOU buy and hold longer than you should, and drives the market higher. Will it end? Well, yes. Of course it will - probably the day after the temporary tax cuts are voted out. But that can has been kicked down the road another 2 years. There is still confidence in the USD$.

This type of market can easily go to the moon, and back. Its nutz. All that Mr. Survey is telling us is that, as a group, we are all wrong.

I'm having a bit of trader's block, finger wavering between doubling down or getting out. Wait a minute, F_T is catching up to me in IFT's! Can't let that happen.

ps- I think the micro view can seem hazy. If you have 10+ years left before retirement, you have plenty of time to ride more than one market cycle.
Case in point, the last 10 years.
Although I don't view my 13+% as shabby, when QE1 took place in 2009, I parked it in a CSI blend and rode to a 65% 12 month return, all the way up to April 20, 2010.
When I got involved with the board, here, I found myself fretting daily over the tics of the market, and subsequently missed more than a few opportunities to cash in, as evidenced by the performance of just the S fund @ 29% YTD, even with the drama of the market gyrations over the year.
In that sense, a B&H strategy kicked A on 99.2% of the AT.
I think that's where the SS comes in- as a tempering hybrid to the everyday market drama, and what I will be using next year to balance out my IFT's.
Now 100% G.
Happy Holidays to ya, hope you, Frixxx, and Boghie, are on some high ground down there! What a La Nina mess!

 

[Boghie]

CRWS,

Lucky me...
I live at the top of a hill - more or less.

The last time we had this La Nina the place below me flooded out. Looks like the drainage improvements have helped a lot. Old Saint Nick (he is an Iranian dude named Nick) is a good guy. Don't really want to regift my plants to his living room.:toung:

Anyway, I think Amoeba is living right in the middle of the NoCal mess. The 'Heavy Precip' arrow is pointing at his house.

Merry Christmas everybody...
Or, if desired, Happy Holidays...

 

[amoeba]

I upped my position in equities from 40 to 65%. Did a little bottom fishing on F (15%) as well. If there's a sharp spike in the last couple trading days in which to take profit, I will do so; otherwise I'm holding it over.

Good to see I_T's signal; I moved before reading his msg, however.

 

[Birchtree]

Good to see you walk that talk.

 

[amoeba]

Now that's more like it!!! (today's opening after IFT)

whoopee:

Even a random dart hit's the target. I correctly picked a bottom on F-fund, but I held off on cashing in mainly due to the share price - which can lag by a day - until it is posted later; I believe tomorrow is the last chance this month to IFT out (see Intrepid's last post on his Account Talk) - and I'll be leaving before market opens on AGG early to ski;

Far be it for me to miss first tracks on a bluebird powder day just for a thousand dollar profit.....NO WAY!!!!

Anyhoo - - - there's been ado made about the low ^VIX with low volume; but I attribute much of that to the silly, ridiculous, spine-less, presidential move to extend the tax cuts.

No - he didn't even think about phasing them out - or giving a smaller break to the rich; he just kicked the can down the road. For what? A piddling unemployment benefit extension? I'm sure he's kicking himself since the next republican target is the health care plan.

Whatever - - - it sort of made this week a no-brainer - - - which for someone like me and all my bad moves this year; I needed it. Next month is another story.

 

[JTH]

While AGG has established a higher low, it has not established a higher high, so the verdict is not in. Also, look at the 52 week High and Low, it is trading more than 50% below this trading zone. The 20 SMA closed below the 50SMA back in mid November, AGG is on a sell over multiple timeframes and I advise everyone and their mother to steer clear of the F-Fund for the time being.

 

[Birchtree]

Besides it's early in the day yet - watch for that tanker car.

 

[amoeba]

While AGG has established a higher low, it has not established a higher high, so the verdict is not in. Also, look at the 52 week High and Low, it is trading more than 50% below this trading zone. The 20 SMA closed below the 50SMA back in mid November, AGG is on a sell over multiple timeframes and I advise everyone and their mother to steer clear of the F-Fund for the time being.

Well yes - I would agree, long term, but yesterday's open was too much of a drop to resist;

And on the transaction processing, it looks like TSP IS PROCESSING TRANSACTIONS on 12/31/10 (found it consistent in two places on the website, so maybe they changed the one that was off - or I didn't find it).

So anyhoo - it looks like a drift higher on equities, a diceroll on F-fund, and numbers are holding to the afternoon. I still will ditch any of them that spikes 1% or more in a day this week - - - as I think it will be sold into when everyone comes back from holiday. Letting it ride for now.

 

[amoeba]

Close enough to the upside target for a government worker, i.e., me:

So I bailed. Not sure what to make of the recent economic data, since it is all clouded by holidays and government money etc. Ended positive for the year, but below my goal (to beat the G-fund).

Not looking past monday, to be honest.

 

[Birchtree]

I think I'll ride this bull right on through June eating any consolidations that get in my way. I'm reminded that time in the market can often be more rewarding than timing the market - ain't it so. Better luck to you for next year. Snort.

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

The general trend in this market is up.
The trend is your friend.
Be in to win.

You keep trying to guess the market and how it will react to news. A couple points to the negative on some consumer survey and its time to run away. Things like that are noise not wars.

 

[amoeba]

market is taking some out to the whipping post already:

There's alot of anticipation of the jobs report, and very little reaction to nondescript retail sales. Having tried to guess reaction to the report unsuccessfully about 3X last year; I am sitting this one out. If it does come in line, I would want to know if there is follow through, or selling into, the news.

Our sentiment survey does not seem to be reflecting the bullishness in the IFT's. I voted bearish, for next week.

 

[JTH]

Our sentiment survey does not seem to be reflecting the bullishness in the IFT's. I voted bearish, for next week.

I'm curious, do you have an entry point you're looking for?

 

[amoeba]

I'm curious, do you have an entry point you're looking for?

Not this time. I'll wait and see the jobs report and 1-2 day reaction to it and go from there. I'd like to see some more volume too.

 

[FAB1]

market is taking some out to the whipping post already:

Reminds me of a song by the Allman Brothers...

Oh Lawd I feel like Im dying...

 

[amoeba]

that was not what I expected

OK, let me get this straight:

Job number is significant disappointment, for second straight month (altho last month was revised up), and the unemployment rate goes down anyway (due to wierd #unemployed - I suspect an anomaly or someone spilled punch on their keyboard).

Then it get's bought into at mid-day; beats the willies out of me.....I succeeded at least in not digging a hole the first week of the year.....earnings for Q4 start next wk (Alcoa).....so maybe some anticipation of that is mixed in.
Oil prices have me worried - - - what up this time of year? $4+/gall by summer could be a problem; it was last time.

There's not alot to be gained in G-fund, and it is burning a hole in my TSP pocket - - - looking for reason to go back in sooner rather than later. Anyway, if I was going to look at the jobs report for guidance, there's not much incentive there (other than the afternoon buying in spite of it). Maybe that's enough. I'll think about it.

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

if now now, when???​

Its dangerous to sit out a bull market. You have to let the market decide. The market has been a NORMAL market for over a year. Day to day changes - and a tick up or down in this stat or that - don't matter much outside of the day traders.

Sitting the bull moves in a normal market leads one to lots of risk and no return.

 

[JimmyJoe]

Boghie is right meeb's. The market won't follow your charts, it'll always do something screwy, but generally positive. You're just going to have to jump in about %50. Then work your way to deeper waters. Even if you initially lose $1000 bucks with some bad luck, it'll turn around for you. The Sentimental Survey is offering some good advice, or join Intrepid Investors group. Good Luck. Birch said it correctly a week ago. "Our biggest risk is retireing poor."

 

[Birchtree]

Gelded perhaps?

 

[amoeba]

Nope, just confused with the markets......and more than a bit distracted by work, travel, dentist's chair, etc.....to have paid attention:

I wish I could call it patience, but it's not. A bit of trader's block, and if today was any indication, that might be good at least in the short term.

I have 2 IFTs; hope to use at least one.

Good luck all.