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amoeba's Account Talk
- Thread starter amoeba
- Start date
My money is where my mouth is (60% of it):
I entered an IFT to bail down to 20% monday - in the hopes of a deadcat or limiting losses (I can rebuy later with new IFT's); this headline risk effect, which I believe this is (not the debt downgrade), can go for weeks/months - it's mainly emotion, not fundamentals.
If the market stay's range bound; I may cancel my IFT and let it ride.
I entered an IFT to bail down to 20% monday - in the hopes of a deadcat or limiting losses (I can rebuy later with new IFT's); this headline risk effect, which I believe this is (not the debt downgrade), can go for weeks/months - it's mainly emotion, not fundamentals.
If the market stay's range bound; I may cancel my IFT and let it ride.
Does anyone besides me have no idea what Birchtree is talking about? or who he is talking about? or what the heck the term "evanesce" means?
Anyhoo, I bailed.....monday came, went, deadcatted on cue.....and tomorrow is another day, another month, and another 2 IFT's. And friday is another job number....so while I am a role of one correct prediction in a row, here's another.
Friday's Jobs report disappoints:
creation: 95,000
new claims: 450,000
No idea how the stock market will react, however.
creation disappointed (39); new claims in line (415); market ignores it. But then - the market paid attention to Egypt - then ignored that the next day. Very fickle.
I'm just back in town - no new comments.
Boghie
Well-known member
Amoeba,
You aren't even matching 'G Fund' returns.
You were in the market for less than a week - and that only partially. And, somehow managed to bail completely out while the market was in a two day trough. Not even a two day decline. A one day decline of 1.8% gets you skittish and watching for a chance to sell on a bump. Then, you bail completely to the 'G Fund'.
Unless you are IN retirement, you are killing your retirement.
Yowser.
:embarrest:
You aren't even matching 'G Fund' returns.
You were in the market for less than a week - and that only partially. And, somehow managed to bail completely out while the market was in a two day trough. Not even a two day decline. A one day decline of 1.8% gets you skittish and watching for a chance to sell on a bump. Then, you bail completely to the 'G Fund'.
Unless you are IN retirement, you are killing your retirement.
Yowser.
:embarrest:
pokerstar629
Member
Amoeba, may I suggest you follow IntrepidTimer's system, his system is fairly conservative being in the "G" fund roughly 3/4 of the time. His past returns are pretty impressive also.
I'm not trying to imply or teach anyone anything here, as I'm still a rookie and learning myself, you are obviously bright and knowledgable about what's going on with the market, but your returns are rather anemic. Again, I'm not poking fun at you in any way, it's just an observation I made and I think everyone on this MB should make 15+percent gains yearly on bull markets.
uscfanhawaii
Active member
The KEY, as they say, is to BUY dips in a Bull Market.....easier said than done, but those that were IN the market when Egypt came calling, and stayed in, were well rewarded! :blink: And, of course, those who were OUT of the market and did buy that big dip, they really made out. For me, I have just stayed fully in so far this year. Could have done a lot better but as Uncle Tom says, it's hard to fight this continuing UP trend!
sell warning - I just went 1/2 in again
Anyway, the resistance to any downward movement - whether it be for silly headlines (Egypt), or legitimate fundamental reasons (unemployment, lack of job creation) - is sufficently created by the lack of options - namely - no where else to put money.
If inflation occurs in any amount; the suppression of interest rates by QE2 and more typical monetary Fed actions (namely 0.25% overnight loan interest); means keeping money out - incurs at least that loss (although none of the risks of equities).
We all know how this can turn on a dime; the market fell off a cliff in april without warning. Whether equity funds can stay above the 50 DMA for another two months - or whether one can wait for 2 months while it rises before investing on a drop, is hard to say.....
Anyway - I bought on what is basically a no-news rest day; and will double down (or even increase risk - to S-fund) on any correction >1%, and <3%, on a given day in the next 5 biz days; then hold till the end of the month - when I'll re-evaluate based largely on the jobs situation. But, based on the non-reaction to the last couple lame jobs reports - it looks like it will take a whopper disappointment to arrest the upward pressure.
In other words - it looks like the new norm is - "hey, its less than 10% unemployment, I'm employed, works for me!! all in!!!).
That said - I've been wrong just about every time since April 2010, so be advised - this is a sell warning more than anything else.
Anyway, the resistance to any downward movement - whether it be for silly headlines (Egypt), or legitimate fundamental reasons (unemployment, lack of job creation) - is sufficently created by the lack of options - namely - no where else to put money.
If inflation occurs in any amount; the suppression of interest rates by QE2 and more typical monetary Fed actions (namely 0.25% overnight loan interest); means keeping money out - incurs at least that loss (although none of the risks of equities).
We all know how this can turn on a dime; the market fell off a cliff in april without warning. Whether equity funds can stay above the 50 DMA for another two months - or whether one can wait for 2 months while it rises before investing on a drop, is hard to say.....
Anyway - I bought on what is basically a no-news rest day; and will double down (or even increase risk - to S-fund) on any correction >1%, and <3%, on a given day in the next 5 biz days; then hold till the end of the month - when I'll re-evaluate based largely on the jobs situation. But, based on the non-reaction to the last couple lame jobs reports - it looks like it will take a whopper disappointment to arrest the upward pressure.
In other words - it looks like the new norm is - "hey, its less than 10% unemployment, I'm employed, works for me!! all in!!!).
That said - I've been wrong just about every time since April 2010, so be advised - this is a sell warning more than anything else.
anthony
Member
I am!
Not TSP so much mind you, but I've got my limit orders out for several stocks that are getting whipped a bit by the overreactive crowd. I'll pick up Nuance this morning (makers of various voice-activated stuff) after they got "downgraded". I really want more AAPL, but it would take something weird to create a decent buying opportunity. My ATVI is also getting pounded, apparently for beating estimates by a measly 0.79 billion.
I'm in wait and see mode on TSP through the middle of the month at least.
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The gap down open this morning got me drooling, especially after news of succession in Egypt didn't produce an instantaneous reaction; I guess this faded a bit, but I'm still excited about the apparent no-brainer; so I went all in. If the next jobs report doesn't fall over a cliff, this could be a decent month; I might even beat the G-fund.
Whoopeee!!!
Whoopeee!!!
ho hum everybody is all in - now what?
A quick look at the IFT's, and autotracker top 50, suggests strong bullishness; and resistence of the market to anything that might be interpreted as counter-news (such as Obama's budget cutting talk; a slight blip in the daily trade, and then more buying; frankly - I don't believe a word he's saying about cutting spending).
Now What?
I suppose the only further bullishness might be even bigger moves into small caps. I know that's what I'm thinking for now.
All in, and not planning on anything else in the near future.
A quick look at the IFT's, and autotracker top 50, suggests strong bullishness; and resistence of the market to anything that might be interpreted as counter-news (such as Obama's budget cutting talk; a slight blip in the daily trade, and then more buying; frankly - I don't believe a word he's saying about cutting spending).
Now What?
I suppose the only further bullishness might be even bigger moves into small caps. I know that's what I'm thinking for now.
All in, and not planning on anything else in the near future.
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