amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

BUY BUY BUY

OK - what the heck is everyone doing?

Libyan oil is not going anywhere. The supply interruption is minimal. The whole thing is temporary; we're talking days, another week, at most. Whatever the outcome, whether it be Gaddaffi remaining or leaving, whether more bloodshed - or less; the oil supply is not going to be affected, and if it is, it will be temporary. This is typical Middle East over-reaction; I could be wrong, but, given the 5 biz days until next month (and no IFTs to get back in), I have no intention of selling.

Back to my original question; which refers to the overwhelming recent IFTs into G and F fund. What is THAT all about. There are some select naysayers who have bought in - some on the second day (which showed a VERY ENCOURAGING mid-day reversal - at least in part, ON HIGH VOLUME); And I think they will make out like bandits come the end of this week.

For everyone else, my advice is this - are you ready?

BUY BUY BUY

 

[Tsunami]

It can't happen? Unlikely, but it could, peak oil is upon us and this turmoil isn't helping....

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/nomura-predicts-220-oil-if-just-libya-algeria-cut-output

Could have made a 50% profit today in USO calls, how much would the profit be with $220 oil by 4/15/11?
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=USO&m=2011-04
Let's see, $40 calls are $2.13 at the close today, for 10 contracts thats $2,130. If oil went to $220 by 4/15/11 (I agree the odds are about zero, just playing what if here), those calls would be worth $220 - $40 = $180. $180/$2.13 equals a 8,450% gain and your $2130 would turn into $180,000. That would fill my gas tank for a while.

As for what I'm doing, I saw this coming and moved my TSP safely into G on 2/14 (I had moved to F but at the last minute got nervous about F and switched to G) and in my trading account I sold my FAZ, TZA and QQQQ puts today for over a 30% gain in my account in just two days, and I plan to reload on any bounce over the next day or two.

 

[amoeba]

Thanks Tsu:

And just because I believe you, I placed a preliminary 93% bail to G for tomorrow. Cheers for the all time deadcat!!!!

HIP HIP HOORAY!!!

 

[Birchtree]

I had to go get my old dive light to find you on the tracker at #661 - and now you want to cluck. Good luck on that one. Seriously, try and hang tight because this is exactly what the bull wants - to get you off his back.

 

[vegasmith]

My system just issued a buy. It's loosely based off the Sentiment Survey and Amoeba's allocation. :cheesy:

 

[FAB1]

It can't happen? Unlikely, but it could, peak oil is upon us

Thats is wholly Unproven - tho if we as a Country continue to (fail) by refusing to drill and exploit our own natural resources I'd say that "peak" passed us by quite some time ago - we are about dead in the water without overseas oil.

In reality we havent barely begun to extract the petroluem in our United States.

Would God that certain heads get out of dank smelly places and some sensible ones gain the power to get us independant again.

 

[Birchtree]

I just don't know where the Democrats dig up their moles for leadership positions.

 

[amoeba]

I cancelled my IFT to bail:

I am remaining all in; the reasons are -

a) this Libya thing, the associated oil price, are all a spoof; I know it's being sold into; but I just don't see it dragging out; I could be wrong, and if I am - it will be covered by Saudi Arabia;

b) the upside now is temporarily greater than the downside, both a bounce, as well as what has been a customary beginning of month uptick; I don't want to miss those;

c) there was no bounce today, as I predicted yesterday;

d) there is an alternative view - that I don't believe; namely - the "catalyst" theory; that a correction is "overdue"; and Libya and oil prices aren't important; that it just is an excuse to start selling, and who know's when it will stop and turn. This could be the case - but I just don't think so; and the market can (and does) turn on a dime.

e) history never repeats itself exactly, but there are patterns in how we come out of these dips. And then you can get something totally new. I say a dip - not a turn in sentiment. If it was a turn in sentiment, it would be more than 3% and change.

f) In addition to the beginning of month bounce pattern, I am considering increasing risk as a way to improve the return - like more S fund; and I don't mean the piddly 20% that Birchtree has pitched in. I mean 100%; and then, following that, I can rebalance with a second IFT once the bounce has faded, and bail as necessary.

Anyway - that's the current strategy; we'll see how it plays out.

 

[Handballer]

I cancelled my IFT to bail:

I am remaining all in; the reasons are -

a) this Libya thing, the associated oil price, are all a spoof; I know it's being sold into; but I just don't see it dragging out; I could be wrong, and if I am - it will be covered by Saudi Arabia;

b) the upside now is temporarily greater than the downside, both a bounce, as well as what has been a customary beginning of month uptick; I don't want to miss those;

c) there was no bounce today, as I predicted yesterday;

d) there is an alternative view - that I don't believe; namely - the "catalyst" theory; that a correction is "overdue"; and Libya and oil prices aren't important; that it just is an excuse to start selling, and who know's when it will stop and turn. This could be the case - but I just don't think so; and the market can (and does) turn on a dime.

e) history never repeats itself exactly, but there are patterns in how we come out of these dips. And then you can get something totally new. I say a dip - not a turn in sentiment. If it was a turn in sentiment, it would be more than 3% and change.

f) In addition to the beginning of month bounce pattern, I am considering increasing risk as a way to improve the return - like more S fund; and I don't mean the piddly 20% that Birchtree has pitched in. I mean 100%; and then, following that, I can rebalance with a second IFT once the bounce has faded, and bail as necessary.

Anyway - that's the current strategy; we'll see how it plays out.

No thanks to Birch for changing you mind? Shame!

 

[Boghie]

You and BirchTree have messed with my winning investment timing strategy.

How am I ever going to be able to build a pay following if BT keeps stealing my allocations and a major contrarian factor in my market timing calculations abruptly reverses.

Actually, while there are knowns, unknowns, and unknown unknowns, I think you were smart to stay in the market. Can’t be certain, but my guess is that America, Europe, and Japan can weather more expensive fuel than China and India. We should be fine – and might even get the benefit of a room temperature Gaddafi. It would be worse. It could be far worse. But, greed shall overcome!!!

I cancelled my IFT to bail:

I am remaining all in; the reasons are -

a) this Libya thing, the associated oil price, are all a spoof; I know it's being sold into; but I just don't see it dragging out; I could be wrong, and if I am - it will be covered by Saudi Arabia;

b) the upside now is temporarily greater than the downside, both a bounce, as well as what has been a customary beginning of month uptick; I don't want to miss those;

c) there was no bounce today, as I predicted yesterday;

d) there is an alternative view - that I don't believe; namely - the "catalyst" theory; that a correction is "overdue"; and Libya and oil prices aren't important; that it just is an excuse to start selling, and who know's when it will stop and turn. This could be the case - but I just don't think so; and the market can (and does) turn on a dime.

e) history never repeats itself exactly, but there are patterns in how we come out of these dips. And then you can get something totally new. I say a dip - not a turn in sentiment. If it was a turn in sentiment, it would be more than 3% and change.

f) In addition to the beginning of month bounce pattern, I am considering increasing risk as a way to improve the return - like more S fund; and I don't mean the piddly 20% that Birchtree has pitched in. I mean 100%; and then, following that, I can rebalance with a second IFT once the bounce has faded, and bail as necessary.

Anyway - that's the current strategy; we'll see how it plays out.

 

[amoeba]

here's why buying back in is a good bet....

right now, we have a nervous market, yet's it's holding up under those factors, namely:

Libya (poo poo)
gov shutdown (another poo poo, won't happen, bammy won't let it)
jobs report (I bet on a meets or beats - - - anything under 400K claims, confirmation through revision on the last month under 400K, and creation in line with the 200K - - could rocket up the S-fund by 2+% that day).

The Chicago PMI is promising; oil prices flattening - possible retreat with settling of Libya; make this a good bet to BUY NOW if you aren't in already.

Look at the sentiment....alot of nervous people out there....and the entirety of the drop was what? 2%? if that's the downside then there's no reason to get out and every reason to take on as much risk as you can.

If you don't get back in now....and there is an explosion on a series of semi-positive economic reports.....then you risk buying right into a temporary pullback....I know....I did it several times last year. If you want to know where you'll end up coming in late - - - you need to look no farther than the bottom of the rankings; a bunch of jonny-come-lately - buy on the first up day, sell on the first down - and stay in G the rest of the month. You know who you are - - - I was one of you. Don't be a late bloomer.

BUY TODAY!!!!

 

[WorkFE]

Re: here's why buying back in is a good bet....

you need to look no farther than the bottom of the rankings; a bunch of jonny-come-lately - buy on the first up day, sell on the first down - and stay in G the rest of the month. You know who you are - - - I was one of you. Don't be a late bloomer.

BUY TODAY!!!!

Enough about me, what about you

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

Too funny... I think this market is playing itself out and near to topping - and you jump in with both feet. And, I am much more of a bull than you. Too funny...

Personally, I am planning a slow migration to safety in March and April. Why sit in the market during the Summer months? This is a fairly normal market. Things are usually slow and choppy in the summer.

Keep your head up.

 

[amoeba]

Amoeba,

Too funny... I think this market is playing itself out and near to topping - and you jump in with both feet. And, I am much more of a bull than you. Too funny...

Personally, I am planning a slow migration to safety in March and April. Why sit in the market during the Summer months? This is a fairly normal market. Things are usually slow and choppy in the summer.

Keep your head up.

Well - re-read the entirety of my last post, not just the first reply; right now - I am the heck surprised......what is going on? I'll tell you. Oil and emotion. Did I think it would have the effect it did today? No - if I did I would have yanked everything out.

As it is - - - and I haven't checked your rank - - - we could be in for some more of the same downside, oil-related, action. How quickly things change.

 

[amoeba]

Huge gap up is a reflection of settling news in Libya, and in oil prices, plus some speculation on tomorrow's jobs number beating expectations. Which means, if it misses, the market could take a beating to the tune of 2-3% right bank down to 1,300. I sampled some reports on retailers; and - well - I'm gonna let it ride on this one. I can't see another gap up unless the new jobs comes in super-high, like 400K+. More good headlines from Libya, and no bad news of any kind in the next week or so, could help.

The recent IFT's show some in the second from the top tier, ~ranks 30-60 or thereabouts, bailing on the gap - and the top 30 holding their hands.

That said - one strategy in me holding my 2 IFT's, is to try to do a short timing of this sort of pause. So my finger is on the button - for any second sharp move up; but I'm raising the monthly target from 1,350 last month (which was never reached), to about 1,365 this month in the SPY, before thinking about it.

There's other reasons why oil prices may vary - and recent history shows this can happen in heartbeat - and go in either direction. Be prepared to react is all I can advise.

 

[Birchtree]

I just dropped in to see what condition my condition was in - hold long as long as you can.

 

[nasa1974]

I just dropped in to see what condition my condition was in - hold long as long as you can.

For the moment our condition is good. :laugh:

I'm only 0.20% behind buddy.

 

[JTH]

I do enjoy this thread, sort of like people watching, so many styles to amuse me.

 

[Khotso]

Huge gap up is a reflection of settling news in Libya, and in oil prices, plus some speculation on tomorrow's jobs number beating expectations. ... I can't see another gap up unless the new jobs comes in super-high, like 400K+. More good headlines from Libya, and no bad news of any kind in the next week or so, could help.

The recent IFT's show some in the second from the top tier, ~ranks 30-60 or thereabouts, bailing on the gap - and the top 30 holding their hands.

Amoeba -- I only learned about this site in the last year, but I must say your thread is one of the ones I always take notice of -- I appreciate and (though you probably couldn't tell from my earnings) learn from your observations about the market. A question: what the heck does "gap up" mean? I understand what it looks like on the charts, but what causes it -- off-hours trading? And what is it's significance?

 

[amoeba]

gap up means the market opens high and stays there in the initial trading; it is often based on after-hours information or speculation of information/rumors (which were wrong, as today's trade shows).

That was not such a bad jobs report. Somewhat of a sell-off; if I wasn't all in I would see this as at least a partial entry point if anyone was in all G or F.