amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

Nuclear reactor stability, no news, is bad news.

All eyes on 1,296.....it held....but barely. In fact, the reason I didn't bail today is because I didn't have my clocks reset to daylight savings. Fortunately, there was enough late interest to close even with the 50 EMA.

In my last post, I warned about the nuclear caveat - - - - and was completely fooled by friday's modest reaction, altho that could have been a mix of bad news and good (retail sales meets) that just looked flat.

Today was not flat. I thought the dust would settle, and it has not. I am not hopeful. Nothing has panned out. I only hope they can keep that reactor core stable for another day while I enter my IFT. Worst case scenerio, is the thing is going to blow, Tokyo will evacuate, and the world's 3rd largest economy goes down the tubes. They would have told us if this was good news already. This, the reactor melting down, I now believe is a real possibility, AND, the market is being held up like a house of cards on false hopes that everything is OK.

The lack of good news - specifically on the reactor core stability - is bad news in itself.

 

[FAB1]

Re: Nuclear reactor stability, no news, is bad news.

All eyes on 1,296.....it held....but barely. Worst case scenerio, is the thing is going to blow, Tokyo will evacuate, and the world's 3rd largest economy goes down the tubes. They would have told us if this was good news already. This, the reactor melting down, I now believe is a real possibility, AND, the market is being held up like a house of cards on false hopes that everything is OK.

The lack of good news - specifically on the reactor core stability - is bad news in itself.

Meltdown isnt going to effect Tokyo - it makes the clean-up much harder and way more expensive. Not a good thing, but I dont see that factoring in much in the markets unless it just because people dont really understand it and are driven by fear.

Fear is going to make some of us richer and some poorer it depends on if you let fear rule you, or you master it. In the long run the disaster is most likely to bring Japan into a new era of prosperity rebuilding the damaged areas. So look up, O' single-celled friend of mine!

 

[amoeba]

not a threat, a reality of bad or worse....

Meltdown isnt going to effect Tokyo - it makes the clean-up much harder and way more expensive. Not a good thing, but I dont see that factoring in much in the markets unless it just because people dont really understand it and are driven by fear.

Fear is going to make some of us richer and some poorer it depends on if you let fear rule you, or you master it. In the long run the disaster is most likely to bring Japan into a new era of prosperity rebuilding the damaged areas. So look up, O' single-celled friend of mine!

Sorry Fab1: this isn't about emotion anymore; this isn't a "threat anymore"; just to be clear - since I have worked at Savannah River Plant and have some familiarity with this sort of thing; I know now there is significant radiation; it is an uncontrolled situation; and it is near a population center. As far as clean-up; for practical purposes there is no such thing for these type of potential radionuclide products and their half-lives; and - significantly - most of the relevant particulars are being with-held, and some lies are being thrown out there by the IAEA - which are, in my opinion, too bass-ackwards to think that someone mis-spoke.

It's intentional, to calm the markets. I am not fooled. There is no "not so bad", here. There is only "bad" and "worse". The markets have held up fairly well all things considered. A clear sell.

 

[FAB1]

How many miles is the reactor from Tokyo? I never said there wasnt going to be a radiation problem, but you said its going to effect Tokyo and I dont see that happening. What I said about the clean up is true and while it is a dangerous situation it is not going to effect a very large area.

I dont see the global market reacting negatively to this one thing for very long, because this is also about many other types of loss that have nothing to do with the damaged reactors and how a country that is a major economic player is in a crippled condition.

We will get thru this soon enough because there is always money to make.

 

[nnuut]

It all depends on the wind direction and velocity, Rain would be good, currently winds are coming from the NW to NNW 15 to 17 mph which I think should be blowing the crap out to sea.
http://www.wunderground.com/global/stations/47671.html

 

[Buster]

Panic grips Tokyo as radiation levels rise​

TOKYO — Panic swept Tokyo on Tuesday as radiation levels surged in the city, causing some to leave the capital and others to stock up on food and supplies.

Several embassies advised staff and citizens to leave affected areas, tourists cut short vacations and multinational companies either urged staff to leave or said they were considering plans to move outside Tokyo. Officials in Tokyo — 150 miles to the south of the plant — said radiation in the capital was 10 times normal

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42083890/ns/world_news-asiapacific/?gt1=43001

 

[amoeba]

Friend, I see you're down about 12 points off your entry. Should 1295 not hold, be prepared to absorb another 20 down to 1275.

No thanks. Clock change screwed me yesterday, caught in a downdraft. I'm out at 1,281. Still have an IFT to mess with. Technicals have to improve before I do that. This hurtz.

Ouch!!!!

 

[amoeba]

How many miles is the reactor from Tokyo? I never said there wasnt going to be a radiation problem, but you said its going to effect Tokyo and I dont see that happening. What I said about the clean up is true and while it is a dangerous situation it is not going to effect a very large area.

I dont see the global market reacting negatively to this one thing for very long, because this is also about many other types of loss that have nothing to do with the damaged reactors and how a country that is a major economic player is in a crippled condition.

We will get thru this soon enough because there is always money to make.

Read my post again. I didn't say "it's going to affect Tokyo"; you said I said that. I said there's significant radiation; these things can, and have, gotten out of control and, depending on how it plays out, could have an enormous effect on the whole country. That's how much and how wide radioactive fallout goes. One thing it won't have, is a small or temporary, or insignificant, effect. Japan's economy is toast for at least 6 months at the minimum; we just don't know how burnt it is.

And, there's no such thing a "clean-up"; You saying we'll get thru it, sounds like some sort of misplaced optimism; maybe we will maybe not, but it is an uncontrolled situation and emotions aren't going to determine the outcome of it.

I'm glad there's dip buyers like you that kept the losses manageable so far. Look out below.

 

[FAB1]

Read my post again. I didn't say "it's going to affect Tokyo"; you said I said that.

Not in quotes, but I read between the lines

Worst case scenerio, is the thing is going to blow, Tokyo will evacuate, and the world's 3rd largest economy goes down the tubes

In my world evacuating the largest city in Japan would be affecting it.
Sheesh!

 

[Birchtree]

I think it's Howdy Doody time for those sitting on the dock of the bay.

 

[amoeba]

Dang it!!!

I think it's Howdy Doody time for those sitting on the dock of the bay.

howdy. still waitin on that bounce are we? I was.
It bounced like a lead balloon.

I still can't tell what the heck is going on. Every economic projection for the next 6 months at least is out the door; nothing can be believed.

Dang it!!!

 

[JTH]

Re: Dang it!!!

howdy. still waitin on that bounce are we? I was.
It bounced like a lead balloon.

I still can't tell what the heck is going on. Every economic projection for the next 6 months at least is out the door; nothing can be believed.

Dang it!!!

I'm waiting on a bounce, fear is being sold here, eventually folks will stop buying it and see it for what it is. I'm still in to win here, down just over 2% that's acceptable risk for me

 

[amoeba]

Re: Dang it!!!

I'm waiting on a bounce, fear is being sold here, eventually folks will stop buying it and see it for what it is. I'm still in to win here, down just over 2% that's acceptable risk for me

I still think there are real issues that are being sold into....not just fear....but that is part of it. Anyway - - - the 1296 and 1275 barriers were breached and I don't see much else except the midpt between the 50 and 200 EMA's as a breaker.....somewhere around 1240-1250.

The S-fund has shown significant single day fluctuations, even when it declines on 10 day average.

I really don't have fear. What I'm trying to do is anticipate whether fear in general will increase or decrease. It's not easy.

 

[amoeba]

Now that I've polluted everyone else's thread:

I'm still on a wait and see. Those of us who closely follow the rankings and holdings, are seeing some downside wagering (# of forum members at 50% or more G/F; moving back in). But this doesn't make them smart money. This sort of knife-catching was the ultimate return-killer for most but a select few in 2008.

The technicals are breached and we are in uncharted territory; there would need to be a confirmed bounce (several days) above 1,275 to arrest the downward move. And the only way that's going to happen for sure, is a dramatic change in sentiment, which currently, is focused on bad news in Japan, but also oil, housing, employment, and QE actions. There will be technical trading that might happen even below the barriers, but in the end of the day (or the month), there has to be some good news to confirm the trend or it won't hold.
Given the breach - I see no resistence down to the midpoint between the 50 and 200 EMAs in the SPY at around ~1,255. Selling volume has been extraordinarily heavy, yet volatility is no-where near it's typical highs of +30 in this type of sell. And the news from Japan is not good.

Still, 1,255 is well within the 52-week range (high of 1,344); prior to all of this mess, I expected a rise to 1,360, then a pullback, then an ultimate annual high of somewhre around 1,450.

Now - I'm not sure what, other than to say - hmmm - my estimates will be revised.

There will be opportunities. They may be tomorrow, or next week, or next month. I remain armed, locked, and loaded with an IFT ready to push the button - so long as it's not the one that flushes any more money down a toilet of uncertainty, cuz that's what this is.

Stupid is that stupid does.

 

[Birchtree]

You can believe that Winnebago (WGO) is making money - take it to the bank. Have confidence and make gains. Your analysis is very good - worth the read.

 

[FAB1]

The technicals are breached and we are in uncharted territory; there would need to be a confirmed bounce (several days) above 1,275 to arrest the downward move. I remain armed, locked, and loaded with an IFT ready to push the button -

And if you wait that long you will miss out.

Sell before the top or just stay In to win. You cant get out at the bottom and wait till everything seems comfy cozy to buy again. And make any money that is.

 

[Scout333]

And if you wait that long you will miss out.

Sell before the top or just stay In to win. You cant get out at the bottom and wait till everything seems comfy cozy to buy again. And make any money that is.

Remember- Buy when there is blood in the streets! Hmmm. Easy to say, hard to do.

 

[amoeba]

And if you wait that long you will miss out.

Sell before the top or just stay In to win. You cant get out at the bottom and wait till everything seems comfy cozy to buy again. And make any money that is.

You mean like 2008, when everyone except ~12 of this forum's members were negative, and the average return was minus 42%?

Or, are you calling the "bottom"; in the middle of technicals - just because it's gapped 1% today.

Whip dee doo. Some might call this a day to accumulate F-fund. Or sell I-fund. Or C-fund. Let's see if any of the bolder traders here who took a bit of a knife-catching hit (e.g., JTH, but again - NOT a criticism) can correctly time this, even 4 hours, no less days in advance - in a spew of uncertainty (and other things, from the reactor in Japan). Best case scenario - a colossal mess in the tech supply chain; which reminds me.

I need to get some extra photo/video memory chips this afternoon before anyone figures this out: at least half of that production line is soaked in saltwater in northern Japan.

 

[FAB1]

I need to get some extra photo/video memory chips this afternoon before anyone figures this out: at least half of that production line is soaked in saltwater in northern Japan.

what?
Can you provide proof of this?

 

[Birchtree]

From Birinyi: "History suggests that the current decline will be short-lived, and most likely presents a buying opportunity."