amoeba's Account Talk

[KevinD]

Yesterday was 'buy the rumor' and today is 'sell the news.'

 

[nasa1974]

Yesterday was 'buy the rumor' and today is 'sell the news.'

That says it all.

 

[amoeba]

Yesterday was 'buy the rumor' and today is 'sell the news.'

well - not exactly - the rumor was around 300K+ jobs, the news was 192K; but the revision to January was +58K and the private jobs around 220K; so all-in-all; not a bad report.

It's really hard to judge the accuracy of the rumors, especially when they differ so much from the forecast/briefing like this one did. Mentally - you want to believe it if you're in the market - even if there is no reason to.

Bottom line - a fair/decent report; nothing I would be selling into on its own. And I wouldn't sell on oil price yet either, because the supply/demand have not really changed. All that can be speculated into the stratosphere, but I doubt it will if $104 is all that Libya news resulted in. Maybe a modest seasonal uptick in the $10 range at most. Oil could back down to under $100 too.

I'm not too worried.

 

[amoeba]

Rank leaders not scared at all.....

About 10 out of the top 120 or so on this board have ANY money in G or F; so looks like this Libya/Oil - traced blip - isn't scaring the smart money here.

And - the daily trade bounced off the lows.....

The ^VIX is showing it's usual settling after the initial spike, though now, it's above the 20 and 50 DMA's, and it needs to get down under 18 and stay there to keep the daytraders at bay. I expect that to be the case next week, especially if the retail sales holds up or beats. As scary as they are....it's these spikes in the ^VIX which are the best times to buy (during an overall rally), and the worst times to bail. If you plot the last two years, the volatility seems to be going nowhere but down.

We'll see. Out.

 

[Britts4life]

Re: Rank leaders not scared at all.....

About 10 out of the top 120 or so on this board have ANY money in G or F; so looks like this Libya/Oil - traced blip - isn't scaring the smart money here.

Wowser! I made the big time! :toung::laugh:

 

[tom1tom1]

Oh it's scaring the hell out of me but the roller coaster ride is becoming addictive. As long as what goes down goes right back up.

 

[Khotso]

gap up means the market opens high and stays there in the initial trading; it is often based on after-hours information or speculation of information/rumors (which were wrong, as today's trade shows).

That was not such a bad jobs report. Somewhat of a sell-off; if I wasn't all in I would see this as at least a partial entry point if anyone was in all G or F.

Thanks! But oops -- I was all in (S) but bailed to G Friday. Guess we'll see what happens.

 

[amoeba]

schizo market continues

Tom's commentary says everything and more I was thinking, and why I am in and so is he:

But common sense is not a virtue; someone recently corrected me - when I said the market will go up or down; it could stay the same.

I'm waiting on the retail sales to see if bulls will retake the lead on what I believe will be good news; whether oil speculation overshadows it - we'll soon know. I still sense that - with only a 3% overall market decline with 20$+/bbl oil price increase; optimism prevails for the time being.

Out.

 

[amoeba]

30/top 60 abandon ship

30/top 60 ranked returns have bailed to G or F fund, completely; almost all on the up-gap days like today. That can be a positive contrarian indicator, if we are still in some sort of upswing. If it were a smaller proportion, you would call it weak hands....but it's not.....anyway, half are still all in, and half are all out.

Not me. I'm all in - and holding my 2 IFTs till at least all this weeks economic data, retail sales (3/11); sentiment; inventories, claims etc. Expectations are modest, the oil-thing isn't going to be reflected in the current data anyway - I still think it's a big speculative hub-bub over nothing, so I'm hoping for a beats, and the market breaks significantly above the 20 DMA's.

Another claims number under 400 would be nice; 350K would be nicer.

 

[amoeba]

Would the market please go higher? Thank you.

Awww, come on:

No bad news, yet, no-one realizes that there isn't a lick of truth to the rumors about Saudi unrest, Libya affecting the world supply, none of it.

It's all garbage speculation - but that is what can cause oil prices to go up even if nothing in terms of real supply/demand has changed. Yet here we are - - - two weeks from the peak, with a weak pullback - - - and the market again can't break above the 20 DMA's in anything.

I would be VERY surprised if the market is not heavily bought into tomorrow, not only for the economic data, but as counter-speculation that Saudi whatever friday is going to be a whole bunch of nothing. Which it will be. So if that is the case,

Would the market please go higher? Thank you.

 

[Birchtree]

The Saudi stock market is up 15% in the last three days - telling us something. I still wish the Egyptian military would step in to help the rebels in Libya. They are right there.

 

[amoeba]

smart, dumb, stupid, and easy money

I sure hope our recent IFT's are not a sampling of the general mentality of the stock market, because if it is, I am in for it:

At LEAST half are complete bails to G/F. All this based on some some minority protest in Saudi. Fine. You want to hold the rally down? Make my day. You'll be breathing my foul gas on monday to the tune of 2-3% missed rally on one day. It may be friday, it may be monday, but it will happen, and then you'll understand the term "stupid money".

If saudi arabia goes under you'll have more to worry about than your TSP anyway. No chance. Free money. All you want. All you have to do is go all in by COB tomorrow. And then - you'll understand the other term "easy money".

 

[FAB1]

Re: smart, dumb, stupid, and easy money

You want to hold the rally down? Make my day. You'll be breathing my foul gas on monday to the tune of 2-3% missed rally on one day. and then you'll understand the term "stupid money".

:nuts: - So beans are on the menu in near future?

Calm down now, your getting your single-celled self all agitated - think of your nucleus, its only money!

 

[amoeba]

overblown hype about Saudi Rage to end tomorrow

And the market will react accordingly:

I have revised my estimated return for the next 6 biz days from +3% to +5-6%.

We now have lower oil prices, OK claims data (<400k yesterday), lower gold, higher bond prices; and the market gapped down 2%.

You tell me how much sense that makes; I say it is a 100% attributable to temporary nervousness about the Middle East, and I shall ride on the shoulders of naysayers (or get stomped on their dirty feet), by monday.

 

[JTH]

Friend, I see you're down about 12 points off your entry. Should 1295 not hold, be prepared to absorb another 20 down to 1275.

 

[amoeba]

JTH - we shall see:

Much does not make sense, the runup and sell off in relation to economics (or lack of relation, more properly); and the association with trivial headlines (that's what this current bet is on).

If this all is an early selloff in anticipation of the end of QE2; I am done for.

My plan is to stay with the plan - short term bounce; submit an IFT for monday - all out - and then back in sooner or later depending on how the short term DMA's and ^VIX move.

 

[Boghie]

An ode to Cowboy Poetry. Maybe I can get an NEA grant:

All in, all out
Some Cowboy Poetry about...

Too frothy, too warm
The summer's first bad storm...

Guessing markets, swinging wildly
Growing earnings mildly...​

In all seriousness Amoeba, why have a complete bailout plan for mid month? Why are you so certain it is October 2008? Play the edges a bit. It's kinda fun...

 

[amoeba]

you tell me boghie...

you should be telling me about the bailout plan; mine is a bounce plan; you already posted on my thread that you planned to bail in march and april; and started to;

This nonsense in Saudi will pass, everybody will hug and kiss, Bammy will throw some more money around and all will be hunky dory before ya know it. Maybe cash for clunky houses you can't sell.

What's the worst that can happen? The market drops 15% in a week because some shadow housing inventory report comes out showing that most financial institutions are underwater just like the houses they foreclosed on?

Naawwww. Bammy will not allow that to happen. As long as there's green ink and paper, and some other country to accept it.

I'm sticking to my monday bail; on a minimum 3%+ bounce. The market will drop like a lead balloon before the end of the month, and then I'm back in. Sorry if I'm being so conservative......

 

[amoeba]

retail sales meets, saudi rage/oil flops, lackluster buy?

Not sure what is the deal with friday's action:

I'm only guessing that there's some unwarranted nervousness still about libya and (though not priced in friday) this tsunami effect on anticipated japanese demand destruction (esp. usa export to them); if the nuclear reactor situation is stable out there - the word needs to get out on that too.

I did not enter a bail yet. Futures are very flat at the moment.....

I haven't looked at the volumes on friday's trade for evidence of institutional movements....

Alll in all - a lackluster day - needs some confirmation....not much in terms of advance IFT's to tell what it's doing to the sentiment of the members here yet. Like me - I guess it's a wait and see.

Tom needs to update those rankings, too....that -2% from thursday is burning a hole in my computer screen.

 

[FAB1]

Re: retail sales meets, saudi rage/oil flops, lackluster buy?

Tom needs to update those rankings, too....that -2% from thursday is burning a hole in my computer screen.

Dont get your cilia bent outta shape. He has.