amoeba's Account Talk

[JTH]

Dusting off my trusty Positive Press Machine. "The Transports breakout establishing a higher intraday high & low, follow the leader...

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[amoeba]

History of tsunami/nuclear incident's in Japan?

From Birinyi: "History suggests that the current decline will be short-lived, and most likely presents a buying opportunity."

What history is he talking about? There has been nothing like this.....do you think Japan's DRAM production is coming back in the next week or so? Alot of toys (phones, pads, puters, video's) are based on that.....whether the remaining capacity in Korea/China can replace it remains to be seen.....

We may have to live without brand new I-devices for 6 months or more

The HORROR!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[nnuut]

I hope they don't run out of 16" laptop screens, I need one? It's a Samsung, I think that's Korea right?:notrust:

 

[amoeba]

Bounce today was sheer speculation

Nothing has changed - for the good - anywhere:

-the Tsunami effects have not gone away

-the nuclear threat remains, is not better in any way, info conflicting

-oil rises; on modest Middle East libyan issues rising;

-claims meets (not a beats);

Those who made the bet, and sold, came out on top; tomorrow is another day; I can't make a lick of prediction; just don't have enough information or sense - but what I do know is this: best case - Japan is in turmoil without absolute armageddon - for at least 6 months, probably longer.

What this means for overall consumption, electronics product components, jobs there - and here; costs of relief efforts; the oil supply/demand/internal government issues; I haven't digested it fully.

Not good for the markets until september, I think, at the earliest. There may be some trading opportunities here and there.

Few, but notable, dice-rollers; JTH, Futures_Trader, and possibly I_T followers; perhaps some others. Poolman flying up the ranks (#18), and leading the month in net gains. Birch in pository again, after a very bold 100% I move.

Holdings in the equity funds of our members in terms of # of members, 50% or more, is least in C-fund (44) and I-fund (50); most in S-fund (280 or so). We'll see where that goes.

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

It sure looks like you've market timed the bottom again

I think I missed my chance to catch the bubbas on top of me. That 30% in the hole is going to kill me.

 

[JTH]

Re: Bounce today was sheer speculation

Few, but notable, dice-rollers; JTH, Futures_Trader, and possibly I_T followers; perhaps some others. Poolman flying up the ranks (#18), and leading the month in net gains. Birch in pository again, after a very bold 100% I move.

To say that I "roll the dice" is inaccurate. I have set standards across several systems, some backtested with surety, others experimental but promising. I use hard facts to orchestrate a symphonic concert with all instruments working in unison. I believe in my trades to the core and know every IFT I execute has singular purpose.

In 2009 I finished at the bottom of the tracker during a Bull year. I vowed never to "Roll the dice" again. In 2010 I finished #73 and I didn't get there with dice. Luck is for the ill-prepared...

 

[burrocrat]

Amoeba,

It sure looks like you've market timed the bottom again

hey, quit corrupting my contrarian indicator.

 

[amoeba]

Re: Bounce today was sheer speculation

To say that I "roll the dice" is inaccurate. I have set standards across several systems, some backtested with surety, others experimental but promising. I use hard facts to orchestrate a symphonic concert with all instruments working in unison. I believe in my trades to the core and know every IFT I execute has singular purpose.

In 2009 I finished at the bottom of the tracker during a Bull year. I vowed never to "Roll the dice" again. In 2010 I finished #73 and I didn't get there with dice. Luck is for the ill-prepared...

Sorry - the dice-roll was perhaps the incorrect metaphor on the few that made bets; it wasn't many, and apologies not mentioning Coolhand for being in the pot as well.......in the absence of clarity on japan...not sure what hard facts there were out there to base the upward move today on....I didn't read that in the news....it looked like there were some false rumors about the reactor situation being bettered by water dumpage before the trade opened today that upped the futures; and beyond that.....this could be a deadcat bounce before a further decline, a bottoming, or a bottom.

What "hard facts"?

 

[Boghie]

Re: Bounce today was sheer speculation

Amoeba,

Don't read the news. Don't watch the news. They are jounalists - they don't know anything...

Here is the good news about the reactors: World Nuclear News

Jounalists go to jounalism school with a goal of changing the world. How many Greenpeace activists (who are also 'Nuclear Scientists' or something) do we have to listen to on CNN, FoxNews, and MSNBC.

By the way, I missed a great time to put that crappy 30% 'G Fund' holding back to work. Normally I don't like to be fully invested this time of year - but maybe we washed all the summer babies out with the bathwater.

Sorry - the dice-roll was perhaps the incorrect metaphor on the few that made bets; it wasn't many, and apologies not mentioning Coolhand for being in the pot as well.......in the absence of clarity on japan...not sure what hard facts there were out there to base the upward move today on....I didn't read that in the news....it looked like there were some false rumors about the reactor situation being bettered by water dumpage before the trade opened today that upped the futures; and beyond that.....this could be a deadcat bounce before a further decline, a bottoming, or a bottom.

What "hard facts"?

 

[JTH]

Re: Bounce today was sheer speculation

What "hard facts"?

It's all good, right now these markets are what I call a "mixed bag" look for a close from SPX 1280-1295 in the next 4 days, anything above that is just gravy and from 1295 on up I can exit with profit. If the Bull market is going to continue, you want to be a buyer at these levels, at least you still have 1 IFT, still an opportunity to redeem yourself...

 

[JTH]

Re: Bounce today was sheer speculation

Don't read the news.

Friend you speak the truth, I've tried to impart this tidbit of wisdom to others myself. If you let the news influence your decisions, you will always be late to the game, the dumb money, the Cramericans. I do watch the news, but I've learned to filter it out from my investment decisions and this improvement has served me well.

 

[JTH]

In bull markets yellow dots below the green line identify key bull bottoms on the NYSE.

View attachment 10765
View attachment 10766

 

[JTH]

Monthly chart showing we've retraced 14% off the top. This isn't even correction territory yet...

View attachment 10767

 

[amoeba]

Re: Bounce today was sheer speculation

Amoeba,

Don't read the news. Don't watch the news. They are jounalists - they don't know anything...

Here is the good news about the reactors: World Nuclear News

.

Hate to tell ya, boghie, but that's exactly what was deemed to be a flase rumor; there's been an equal or larger amount of same saying that water dump is doing no good and it looks alot more authoritative and data-rich than just saying "initial indications....look successful". Who and why was that said? No one knows.

Looks like that, too is journalism - and as you say - they don't know anything. And the reactor issue is not end of story for Japan/tsunami issues.

 

[amoeba]

Re: Bounce today was sheer speculation

It's all good, right now these markets are what I call a "mixed bag" look for a close from SPX 1280-1295 in the next 4 days, anything above that is just gravy and from 1295 on up I can exit with profit. If the Bull market is going to continue, you want to be a buyer at these levels, at least you still have 1 IFT, still an opportunity to redeem yourself...

Or it could take a hike down below 1,250 in four days, or go up to 1,290 and down to 1,240 in six days. Below the 50 EMA, 1,296 and above the midpt between the 200 and 50, 1,250 or so, anything could happen. One day does not make a new trend. No redemption necessary. Anyway, some of us will smell like roses and others will stink it up. We'll know soon enough. Imagine how different this would all be if the earth would have stood still? but it didn't.

What went down, did go up already, and could go up more, or down more. And then.....will this bounce be sold in a vengeance by those wanting to recoup? Sound familiar? It is (look back to late last April).

 

[FAB1]

Re: Bounce today was sheer speculation

Friend you speak the truth, I've tried to impart this tidbit of wisdom to others myself. If you let the news influence your decisions, you will always be late to the game, the dumb money, the Cramericans. I do watch the news, but I've learned to filter it out from my investment decisions and this improvement has served me well.

I would not discount that there is also a "Green" agenda to pass disinformation to hinder nuclear energy all over the globe. The Greens will use anything such crisis to their own ends.

 

[JTH]

Re: Bounce today was sheer speculation

Or to short the markets....

 

[amoeba]

More likely source of disinformation - stock traders

I would not discount that there is also a "Green" agenda to pass disinformation to hinder nuclear energy all over the globe. The Greens will use anything such crisis to their own ends.

That's right. Misinformation from people who bought in and are up to their ears in long options. I don't see this info as being "green"; it's out there to buoy the market. It's pretty lamely disguised, not enough real facts to support the conclusion. Anyway, you speculated; so that's mine.

It's not the greens that are passing disinformation; since most of it is suggesting there is an improvement in the situation and that is NOT the case. It hasn't been enough time to even get a half-assed idea of what the total effects of the tsunami/nuclear situation will be, but this is for sure:

It is not insignificant. It will not become better, or fixed in a week. Korea and China will not be able to pick of the component shortages for key electronics, asian auto, consumables, and for some things (fanboyz of IPADs), there are no substitutes. Hard to say what this effect is going to be.

As far as the markets - if the SPY doesn't crest the 50 EMA soon, it will become a DEAD CAT and sold down. Every day below the 20, and 50, is another day of anxiety for those who bought on the slide, and caught a knife. A bit more brewing in Libya than I thought initially, bu

 

[Elgallo]

Have you ever heard of the law of attraction?

The Law of Attraction simply says that you attract into your life whatever you think about. Your dominant thoughts will find a way to manifest.

 

[vegasmith]

Re: More likely source of disinformation - stock traders

As far as the markets - if the SPY doesn't crest the 50 EMA soon, it will become a DEAD CAT and sold down. Every day below the 20, and 50, is another day of anxiety for those who bought on the slide, and caught a knife. A bit more brewing in Libya than I thought initially, bu

I think your sentence got cut off but I agree with your take. If the 100 EMA holds up, and it's a legit "if", all those who bought in below the 50 EMA stand to make a nice chunk of change.