amoeba's Account Talk

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JTH used monthly statistics when he back tested his data. Most of us in TSP use a bi-weekly contribution program which allows even more fate based buying with DCA and a greater accumulation of shares. The lower the price with a constant contribution the more shares that are added to the base when on the bottom. Then you get to DCA all the way back to the top accumulating more shares only now at somewhat higher prices. When you add shares to the base you come back quicker from any previous devaluation. Remember the SPX now has a gain of 96% from the March '09 lows. I was even value more than a year ago and I owe it all to DCA. It does take courage to dump good money down a dark deep well - but it's imperative.
 
poppycock!!!

Birchtree said:
JTH used monthly statistics when he back tested his data. Most of us in TSP use a bi-weekly contribution program which allows even more fate based buying with DCA and a greater accumulation of shares. The lower the price with a constant contribution the more shares that are added to the base when on the bottom. Then you get to DCA all the way back to the top accumulating more shares only now at somewhat higher prices. When you add shares to the base you come back quicker from any previous devaluation. Remember the SPX now has a gain of 96% from the March '09 lows. I was even value more than a year ago and I owe it all to DCA. It does take courage to dump good money down a dark deep well - but it's imperative.
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more utter poppycock from BT; do what JTH said last time you brought this up - either put up (a spreadsheet that proves it, which you won't cuz it ain't true) or the other option (put a lid on it).
 
amoeba said:
Better go read his message again, and what he's written in the past....to see who he's talking to, and what his opinion on buy and hold is.
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Message was addressed at Boghie's comment about YOU and to anyone else who doesn't know what they are doing.

JTH said:
I'm not amused

Let this message be sent out to anyone who will receive it. If you don't know how to trade with clear and concise goals, then don't do it. Either Buy & Hold (hold means DON"T SELL) or use a premium service. All kidding aside, wealth destruction isn't funny, it's a preventable tragedy. After all, what we do now (or don't do) determines the future quality of life for ourselves and more importantly our loved ones. Amoeba isn't the only one on this forum who's in the hole.
Click to expand...
 
jpcavin said:
Message was addressed at Boghie's comment about YOU and to anyone else who doesn't know what they are doing.
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That's why Boghie needs to read it again. I don't think JTH would ever advise anyone to buy-and-hold if a knife was held to his throat.
 
amoeba said:
That's why Boghie needs to read it again. I don't think JTH would ever advise anyone to buy-and-hold if a knife was held to his throat.
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Buy and hold is actually not bad especially if you DCA. However, you have to know how to do it correctly. It's not just blindly DCAing for the sake of DCAing. For example, DCAin into undervalued stocks. DCAing also gets you into a consistent practice of investing. Doesn't make sense to DCA into overpriced stocks just to DCA. If you look at the Berkshire Hathaway SEC filings, you will see that he has had most of the same stocks for many years and he continuously buys more shares of some of those holdings. He never takes 1 mil every quarter and divide it evenly among all his holdings.
Just my 2 cents.
I could be wrong, but I think this is what Birch does as well.
 
I feel like my children are fighting again and I have to separate them. Let's just love each other and agree that I'm right and everyone else is wrong on some level. :p

If Birchtree had retired in 2008, after losing 38% of his life savings, he'd be on the wrong side of the random walk theory. If you keep doing the same thing then why would you expect a different outcome?

If Amoeba keeps zigging (when he/she should be zagging) you're going to stay on the bottom of the tracker. If you keep doing the same thing then why would you expect a different outcome?

There is no single right answer and if you choose to single out 1 method as the only right one, than you will eventually be wrong.
 
Hi!

I just caught up on the thread

Gotta agree with JTH, you cant fly your "plane without instruments"
and not eventually crash into something.

Pay service has improved my swing, and the game is more relaxed.
And I dont even play golf! :nuts:
 
The young gentleman doesn't need a pay service - he only needs to ignore the headlines and show some courage. He has the perspicacity to succeed by blazing his own trail and I think he'll do just fine. He may not appreciate my investing strategies but I did the time in grade to make my money grow. Being a member of the 700 club will provide some valuable experience.
 
AGG has broken below the lower rising green trendline. The recent price action between AGG & SPX has been inverse, this provides additional information supporting upside action in stocks.

View attachment 10806
 
Well, I don't know what any of this means and I am not really in a position to give any advice. Just speaking for myself personally, I would not get out of anything at a loss. Just me..:) I also wouldn't know when to cut my losses. :sick::D
 
jpcavin said:
Well, I don't know what any of this means and I am not really in a position to give any advice. Just speaking for myself personally, I would not get out of anything at a loss. Just me..:) I also wouldn't know when to cut my losses. :sick::D
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And I don't know what any of that means either....and yes.....JTH, I have been following exactly that relation....if you look into it deeply and I'm sure you have, one issue is that I don't really know when the ^VIX is going to peak (like the last time - typically it exceeds 30 or more - this last time, it never closed that high); the other thing which was different about the last move was that the breach of the 50 EMA was so temporary - whereas the last few moves under the 50 EMA (in all of our tracking indices) over the past five years has been at least a few weeks once breached.

Anyway - I moved accordingly on the way down (not at the bottom); and it didn't work. Today was a bond sale - but the day isn't over and AGG gapped down so hard it may be bought into by the close...anyway....it is another mixed bag, and so is my IFT. 70F 30S for the last week for me.
 
Prove it.

Birchtree said:
The young gentleman doesn't need a pay service - he only needs to ignore the headlines and show some courage. He has the perspicacity to succeed by blazing his own trail and I think he'll do just fine. He may not appreciate my investing strategies but I did the time in grade to make my money grow. Being a member of the 700 club will provide some valuable experience.
Click to expand...


Go educate me, smart one. You claimed JTH's analysis is wrong because it was monthly and your contributions are bi-weekly. I think that's crazy. I believe JTH. If you think differently, then PROVE IT.

Provide a table showing how that works, and what particular profit is being made with bi-weekly contributions that wouldn't be made monthly.
 
Re: Prove it.

amoeba said:
Go educate me, smart one. You claimed JTH's analysis is wrong because it was monthly and your contributions are bi-weekly. I think that's crazy. I believe JTH. If you think differently, then PROVE IT.

Provide a table showing how that works, and what particular profit is being made with bi-weekly contributions that wouldn't be made monthly.
Click to expand...

Hang in there amoeba,

I for one know that you are much better than where you are on the tracker right now. Everyone takes it in the shorts from time to time. Don't worry about what others say about you.

I notice that many and I know who they are for the most part (The Ones that have been with us for awhile) do great when the markets are doing well but they Stink when the markets are falling. I just laugh as they fall lower and lower tracker wise. Those are the ones that don't know when to get out. My strategy is make 2% a month and get out.

Anyway your time will come to Shine. You know it and so do I. Take Care my Friend. :)
 
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