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amoeba's Account Talk
- Thread starter amoeba
- Start date
JTH
Well-known member
For what it's worth, I gave up arguing with Birchtree about his DCA strategy. Here's the deal, I can see it working with individual stocks (NOT INDEXES) where you pile in on your losers and ride your winners within a flexable trading account.
But guess what, this is TSP, this ain't a flexible trading account! The old man's been going senile for years now, I'm not going to change his mind and he won't change mine. I've come to understand he's wrong, I'm right, and I'm alright with being right.
To be the devils advocate, just because DCA is wrong doesn't mean everything else is right.
But guess what, this is TSP, this ain't a flexible trading account! The old man's been going senile for years now, I'm not going to change his mind and he won't change mine. I've come to understand he's wrong, I'm right, and I'm alright with being right.
To be the devils advocate, just because DCA is wrong doesn't mean everything else is right.
JTH
Well-known member
+1 BT's diversion to his oceanic account is a distraction from the reality of his TSP account. Newer folks don't always understand this and as such are mislead.
KevinD
Well-known member
I've learned a lot from Mr Tree and others. If I didn't know what was being talked about I went out and looked it up.
Up until I came here I was a buy and hold DCAer and did pretty well. Since I've been here I've caused myself some (limited) damage.
But like I said I've learned a lot.
Up until I came here I was a buy and hold DCAer and did pretty well. Since I've been here I've caused myself some (limited) damage.
But like I said I've learned a lot.
Scrappy
Member
According to the AutoTracker annual archive for 2008 Birchtree finished at -38.53%.
Only 15 of 117 people finished with a positive #. There were two "Premium Services" listed with strategies that did NOT finish in the positive.
In 2009 Birchtree finished with a +27.78%
In 2010 Birchtree finished with a +17.24%
Buy and hold w/DCA may not be the best strategy but who is to say which one is?
I would sure like to know which strategy it is and if someone can back it up with a guarantee, I will pay double their nominal monthly fee.
I like "tinkering" with IFT's and have ususally only done poorly when I have gone weeks without computer access.
It is my humble opinion that buy and hold with DCA is the way to go for the typical person especially if they don't have the time, focus, and/or interest to "potentially" change their future for the better.
I could be wrong but from my limited research, the majority of TSP investors never even use any IFT's. They just put money in until they retire without ever worrying a single day over an up or a down.
Only 15 of 117 people finished with a positive #. There were two "Premium Services" listed with strategies that did NOT finish in the positive.
In 2009 Birchtree finished with a +27.78%
In 2010 Birchtree finished with a +17.24%
Buy and hold w/DCA may not be the best strategy but who is to say which one is?
I would sure like to know which strategy it is and if someone can back it up with a guarantee, I will pay double their nominal monthly fee.
I like "tinkering" with IFT's and have ususally only done poorly when I have gone weeks without computer access.
It is my humble opinion that buy and hold with DCA is the way to go for the typical person especially if they don't have the time, focus, and/or interest to "potentially" change their future for the better.
I could be wrong but from my limited research, the majority of TSP investors never even use any IFT's. They just put money in until they retire without ever worrying a single day over an up or a down.
jpcavin
Well-known member
I can see where newer folks get confused. I myself felt that way when I first got on this message board. Hell, I thought RMD was a stock ticker. :embarrest: But if BT is at fault for creating confusion among the Green folks such as myself, then so are many more on this site. I hear more talk about EFTs, specific stock tickers, Elliot Wave, 50-day MA, 200-day MA, but no explanation about what it is, why it's important and how to apply it. That is also confusing! But I know to ask questions and I use the hell out of Google! If this MB was meant to be just strictly about TSP than I think talk of Beltway, IRAs, the price of oil in China, Jail, Movie Trivia etc. would have faded away.
This site has a little of everything that most of us (i think) value and/or enjoy talking about. We can choose our areas of interest and leave the rest alone. I hate Beltway but it's nice to know I can go there if at some point in my life I want to go argue political views. I personality like to learn about other investment options and the tax advantages of different IRAs, early withdrawal penalties, etc. I value what others have to say and it seems a shame to throw all that knowledge out the door simply because someone is confused. Ask questions and educate yourself before you throw someone under the bus simply because you are confused. Just my two cents again. (-.06)
This site has a little of everything that most of us (i think) value and/or enjoy talking about. We can choose our areas of interest and leave the rest alone. I hate Beltway but it's nice to know I can go there if at some point in my life I want to go argue political views. I personality like to learn about other investment options and the tax advantages of different IRAs, early withdrawal penalties, etc. I value what others have to say and it seems a shame to throw all that knowledge out the door simply because someone is confused. Ask questions and educate yourself before you throw someone under the bus simply because you are confused. Just my two cents again. (-.06)
Scrappy
Member
low volume up move, last time was a sell signal
Ooooooooh:
Remember the Alamo, i.e., a low volume friday up-trade? I do. That was my peak of this year (+2%), back on 2/18 or so.....I got greedy and hoped for 1,350....didn't pull the trigger, got caught in a downdraft, and here I am.
So will the market fool me a second time? Truth be told - - - if monday is a gap down, it just plain will have.
The coincident bond trade didn't work out like I'd hoped. I'd been following the AGG and looking for a buy-in point, and I thought the breach of the 20 EMA would be a good one since it was back on 3/3; but maybe it wasn't. Anyhoo, a significant portion of our leaders and leader-followers have been messing around in the F-fund of late, tho some have called it quits there and reverted (Vegasmith). Hard to say where bonds are gonna go. It was a bet....
JTH has had a good streak and booked to G-fund; whereas I-fund followers took it in the shortz, not sure exactly why - there's various factors - not the least of which may be a flight to safety in the USA (both C and S), causing a divergence there. How long that's gonna last is anyone's guess, but the inflection in the 20 EMA in the SPY (yesterday), was one of those good signs I was looking for. So a mixed bag.
Now what. The smart money on this forum (e.g., JTH, Vegasmith, guessing I_T) is going in all different directions. My inclination is to lick my wounds and follow JTH one day later, but then I'll miss the next exciting friday (april fool's), which may not be a bad thing.
Ooooooooh:
Remember the Alamo, i.e., a low volume friday up-trade? I do. That was my peak of this year (+2%), back on 2/18 or so.....I got greedy and hoped for 1,350....didn't pull the trigger, got caught in a downdraft, and here I am.
So will the market fool me a second time? Truth be told - - - if monday is a gap down, it just plain will have.
The coincident bond trade didn't work out like I'd hoped. I'd been following the AGG and looking for a buy-in point, and I thought the breach of the 20 EMA would be a good one since it was back on 3/3; but maybe it wasn't. Anyhoo, a significant portion of our leaders and leader-followers have been messing around in the F-fund of late, tho some have called it quits there and reverted (Vegasmith). Hard to say where bonds are gonna go. It was a bet....
JTH has had a good streak and booked to G-fund; whereas I-fund followers took it in the shortz, not sure exactly why - there's various factors - not the least of which may be a flight to safety in the USA (both C and S), causing a divergence there. How long that's gonna last is anyone's guess, but the inflection in the 20 EMA in the SPY (yesterday), was one of those good signs I was looking for. So a mixed bag.
Now what. The smart money on this forum (e.g., JTH, Vegasmith, guessing I_T) is going in all different directions. My inclination is to lick my wounds and follow JTH one day later, but then I'll miss the next exciting friday (april fool's), which may not be a bad thing.
jpcavin
Well-known member
Re: low volume up move, last time was a sell signal
When the dollar goes up, the I Fund goes down. That is why the "I" went down today. When the feds get happy and print more money, which is quite possible with all this debt, it will devaluate the dollar and the I Fund will go up. Foreign markets like the weak dollar.
That is how I understand it. If I am off on this or altogether wrong, someone correct me please.
I don't want to mislead myself or anyone else. :blink:
When the dollar goes up, the I Fund goes down. That is why the "I" went down today. When the feds get happy and print more money, which is quite possible with all this debt, it will devaluate the dollar and the I Fund will go up. Foreign markets like the weak dollar.
That is how I understand it. If I am off on this or altogether wrong, someone correct me please.
I don't want to mislead myself or anyone else. :blink:
Birchtree
Well-known member
Foreign companies do not like the weaker dollar because their exports cost more and that puts them at a disadvantage. U.S. companies enjoy an advantage with their exports when the dollar remains weak making their exported products cheaper into the foreign countries. Roughlt 60% of today's S&P 500 earnings are actually generated from overseas businesses. That will likely not change anytime soon.
jpcavin
Well-known member
I meant the devalued dollar is good for the foreign markets "I" Fund? Except the I fund isn't exactly invested in emerging markets so I don't know.
Anyway, I know what I was thinking, I just wrote it ass backwards.:embarrest:
vegasmith
Member
I've been searching for more info on your statement Birchtree but not having much luck. I'm having trouble seeing how that Net Exports make up 10-14% of GDP for the last 5 years and your quote can both be true. Could you point us in right direction?
Amoeba.. I'm definitely not "smart money". I doubt the other guys would say that about themselves either.
Anyway that F-fund move I made was indeed a bet. Just me hedging the 100-EMA might break last week. It didn't and I quickly bought what was left of the recent dip. I by no means think there's a long term reason to be in the F-fund right now.
Boghie
Well-known member
Amoeba,
You appear to be more talented than I with technical (and probably fundamental) trading techniques. For example, you can follow the charts presented by JTH and CoolHand. I can follow their commentary. CoolHand has first person knowledge of my skillset (My guess is that is one reason he no longer posts the Top 15 – yuk, yuk).
But, you have a tendency to trade based on fear and greed.
Da’Boyz will eat your money and leave you nothing. You always bang Birch over the head (which he sometimes much deserves) with his 38%+ loss in 2008. Yowser! You say. If only BT hadn’t lost almost 40% of his holdings. What a goober.
But, looking at the five years of returns available data:
If you have a 10+ year time horizon you HAVE to place a decent amount of your retirement assets at risk during normal market periods. You have a good feel for impending market dumps, but you have to follow your knowledge of technicals for normal and boom markets. And, you have to accept some level of risk.
We will probably never have another 35% dump (three standard deviations away from the S&P norm) in our lifetimes. Two in ten years is way beyond the norm. That is ‘Great Depression’ stuff. And, you probably will not suffer that dump because you will see it coming. Sitting at 30% invested for a couple of weeks, getting nervous about a one day 2% correction, and being elated about a 2% gain will kill you. You have to find an acceptable loss (maybe 7% - 10%) over a longer timeframe. That way you give the market time to recover from a day to day blip – and you save valuable IFTs.
You cannot gain a decent return (maybe 8%) unless you accept an 11% risk.
I know you don’t want advice.
Take it, leave it, or even have Tom delete it.
You appear to be more talented than I with technical (and probably fundamental) trading techniques. For example, you can follow the charts presented by JTH and CoolHand. I can follow their commentary. CoolHand has first person knowledge of my skillset (My guess is that is one reason he no longer posts the Top 15 – yuk, yuk).
But, you have a tendency to trade based on fear and greed.
Da’Boyz will eat your money and leave you nothing. You always bang Birch over the head (which he sometimes much deserves) with his 38%+ loss in 2008. Yowser! You say. If only BT hadn’t lost almost 40% of his holdings. What a goober.
But, looking at the five years of returns available data:
2006: 15.77%
2007: 5.92%
2008: -38.53%
2009: 27.78%
2010: 17.24%
Average Return: 5.636%
Average Risk: 25.88%
Now, you actually were one of the few folks who made money in 2008. Apparently, that comes from experience gained during the Dot.Com bust. I only have three years for you, but here are your numbers:2007: 5.92%
2008: -38.53%
2009: 27.78%
2010: 17.24%
Average Return: 5.636%
Average Risk: 25.88%
2008: 1.58%
2009: 2.64%
2010: 0.46%
Average Return: 1.56%
Average Risk: 1.09%
Amoeba, I do not know how long you have till retirement, I do not know if you have other retirement assets, I do not know what other assets you have, and I do not know what debt you have – but…2009: 2.64%
2010: 0.46%
Average Return: 1.56%
Average Risk: 1.09%
If you have a 10+ year time horizon you HAVE to place a decent amount of your retirement assets at risk during normal market periods. You have a good feel for impending market dumps, but you have to follow your knowledge of technicals for normal and boom markets. And, you have to accept some level of risk.
We will probably never have another 35% dump (three standard deviations away from the S&P norm) in our lifetimes. Two in ten years is way beyond the norm. That is ‘Great Depression’ stuff. And, you probably will not suffer that dump because you will see it coming. Sitting at 30% invested for a couple of weeks, getting nervous about a one day 2% correction, and being elated about a 2% gain will kill you. You have to find an acceptable loss (maybe 7% - 10%) over a longer timeframe. That way you give the market time to recover from a day to day blip – and you save valuable IFTs.
You cannot gain a decent return (maybe 8%) unless you accept an 11% risk.
I know you don’t want advice.
Take it, leave it, or even have Tom delete it.
Boghie, You may need to look at your math on birtchtree's return for 5 years,it is closer to 2.6% average annual return for 5 years.Without knowing amoeba return for the last 5 years we cannot compare that time frame. If you compare the last 3 years amoeba has about a 4%average annual higher return. If someone has been a buy and holder for the last ten years they have not made any money.
Boghie
Well-known member
JLH321,
My math is correct.
Comparing three year stats:
BT: 2.163% Annual Return - Rather Crappy
Amoeba: 1.56% Average Annual Return - Rather Crappy
Anyway, my point is that Amoeba is missing a boom market and is not giving himself/herself a chance to take advantage of an exceptional 2008 performance.
Accepting only a 1% risk is not even 'F Fund' territory. The 'F Fund' has about a 5% 'risk' - that is, standard deviation.
BT (and many others) got blown out in 2008 - but they accept a year over year risk. They can make it back. BT already has. I did quite some time ago. Intrepid_WhatEver, WorkFE, the Biker, FiveTears, Medic, and many others are now positive (I am guessing) and getting much more positive very quickly. As is BT.
You have to be in to win. You have to accept losses of 8%, 9%, 10%, 11%, 12% in a year to make the 15%, 20%, 30% gains to go along with the normal 8%. Personally, someone with technical and fundamental skills should be able to avoid a big portion of the dumps. That is where long term gains are made. Not accepting a -38% dump. But, to accept 2% forever???
My math is correct.
Comparing three year stats:
BT: 2.163% Annual Return - Rather Crappy
Amoeba: 1.56% Average Annual Return - Rather Crappy
Anyway, my point is that Amoeba is missing a boom market and is not giving himself/herself a chance to take advantage of an exceptional 2008 performance.
Accepting only a 1% risk is not even 'F Fund' territory. The 'F Fund' has about a 5% 'risk' - that is, standard deviation.
BT (and many others) got blown out in 2008 - but they accept a year over year risk. They can make it back. BT already has. I did quite some time ago. Intrepid_WhatEver, WorkFE, the Biker, FiveTears, Medic, and many others are now positive (I am guessing) and getting much more positive very quickly. As is BT.
You have to be in to win. You have to accept losses of 8%, 9%, 10%, 11%, 12% in a year to make the 15%, 20%, 30% gains to go along with the normal 8%. Personally, someone with technical and fundamental skills should be able to avoid a big portion of the dumps. That is where long term gains are made. Not accepting a -38% dump. But, to accept 2% forever???
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