amoeba's Account Talk

[FAB1]

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +16.00.

We have the momentum, to move up and thats what counts! Even in these two "flat" days this week -S- has made gains. Now we are going to see the next upward push that sends us to 1400 so hold on.

 

[poolman]

Re: Opposite of flax to gold?

I really thought - given poolman's entry into F - that I could have rode it up and rebalanced, but that was not to be.........

Amoeba,

I do not have a position in F - Fund.

 

[amoeba]

correction noted

Amoeba,

I do not have a position in F - Fund.

Correction noted: I meant given Poolman's entry into EYE (I) fund - I could have rode it up and rebalanced,

- based on what had the momentum.

Looks like the I-move is working - at least today.

 

[amoeba]

so far - futures are strongly negative for tomorrow (4/13/11):

should be interesting; we'll see how the retail sales number stacks up;

there seems to increasing dip interest in the recent IFT's today; but ~15 of the top 30 are in G-fund; if that tells you anything.

my 70F:30I allocation seems to be treading water.....I'd like to better, maybe get above NEGATIVE 3% this month....if possible. That means I need to pick up ~0.3% somewhere. At that rate, I may end the year positive.

How's that for lowered expectations?

 

[JTH]

How's that for lowered expectations?

If you need a loan, I'll buy your first month's suscription to IT.

 

[amoeba]

No thx JTH:

Go buy it yourself if you think it does any good; that would be less than half your current return, so I doubt you will.:cheesy:

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Why is it you only hear from naysayers AFTER a downturn............

See ya at the end of the year.............

 

[amoeba]

Nothin like trading jokes...

Ahhh yesss:

Nothin like trading jokes...which I assume this is.....hope we all can take it...I know I can......let me laugh again :laugh:

Jokes are alot funnier than losing money, however.

Anyhoo......looks like futures reversed, are now flat.........let's see if JTH triples down or goes another way (F/G).

But man - that collapse of oil price today - in the face of lack of Libyan production, is suggestive of lowered GDP expectations for the rest of the year.

This is another confusing set of fundamentals. At least this month - - - patience has been a virtue.

 

[JTH]

I apologize, I did not mean that as an insult to either Amoeba or Milkman. I meant it as a kind gesture. Let's not focus on the here and now, it will be forgotten within weeks. Milkman is a consistent "duh" winner with tiger blood coursing through his veins. If he's not doing well at the moment, it's of no concern to me because I know his track record. My offer still stands.

 

[amoeba]

My refusal still stands; and you ARE joking :nuts:


I just wish bammy was joking when he decided in his infinite wisdom that he knows better than the FDA about the relative merits and deficiencies of self-medicated, smoked marijuana, under the guise of medicine, compared to other drugs that are safe and met all approvals.

He said goodbye to a second term right then, as if there aren't enough other reasons. And that is no joke.

Idiot. Doper. Maybe he'll make a better talk show host. Slick talking is different from correct decisions; I'll vote for the latter as the next president. Bammy won't be it. If I could, I would retire and campaign for whoever runs against him.

 

[Birchtree]

The fool Obama is going to recommend a reduction in defense spending - he should do the right thing and go after wasteful welfare spending. An illegitimate black male requires 18 years of financial support and then requires another 20 years of financial support from his state penile system.

 

[jpcavin]

The fool Obama is going to recommend a reduction in defense spending - he should do the right thing and go after wasteful welfare spending. An illegitimate black male requires 18 years of financial support and then requires another 20 years of financial support from his state penile system.

These kids need a father figure to teach them to take personal responsibility and stop the cycle.

 

[Dutchy]

The fool Obama is going to recommend a reduction in defense spending - he should do the right thing and go after wasteful welfare spending. An illegitimate black male requires 18 years of financial support and then requires another 20 years of financial support from his state penile system.

Ya... Whatever happen to the Welfare Reform of 1996?? I'm sure that has been reversed slowly and quietly over the last few years.... Obama is pandering to the left; higher taxes on the "rich" and cut defense spending.

 

[amoeba]

well - there's plenty of waste to go around:

But I'm quite sure that foregoing incarceration of criminals is worth the savings and has alot more immediate risks than the various groups in the middle east.

Military spending can be cut. We can start by getting the heck out of there - that means the whole lot; libya, afghanistan, iraq, any of that stuff. Just get out. Completely.

They seemed to get along (or not get along) without us for quite a long time. We don't need to be in all that crossfire and it isn't doing any good, and costing alot of money.

Now for the TSP - futures drifting listlessly sideways as they often do after a low-volume day. I am a complete fog still; there was a large movement into the equity funds among our top 30 so I just followed the herd (JTH is a notable holdout, which worries me, since he cherry-picked the last dip). currently I'm 30F:35S:35I.

I'm almost to my goal of negative 3%. PLease hold the yee haw's....

 

[FAB1]

08:05 am : S&P futures vs fair value: +6.20. Nasdaq futures vs fair value: +16.00.

We have the momentum, to move up and thats what counts! Even in these two "flat" days this week -S- has made gains. Now we are going to see the next upward push that sends us to 1400 so hold on.

Oops! I didnt say "mother may I" :blink:

 

[Boghie]

well - there's plenty of waste to go around:

But I'm quite sure that foregoing incarceration of criminals is worth the savings and has alot more immediate risks than the various groups in the middle east.

Military spending can be cut. We can start by getting the heck out of there - that means the whole lot; libya, afghanistan, iraq, any of that stuff. Just get out. Completely.

They seemed to get along (or not get along) without us for quite a long time. We don't need to be in all that crossfire and it isn't doing any good, and costing alot of money.

Now for the TSP - futures drifting listlessly sideways as they often do after a low-volume day. I am a complete fog still; there was a large movement into the equity funds among our top 30 so I just followed the herd (JTH is a notable holdout, which worries me, since he cherry-picked the last dip). currently I'm 30F:35S:35I.

I'm almost to my goal of negative 3%. PLease hold the yee haw's....

Afghanistan got along great without us.

Till they didn't:embarrest:

 

[vegasmith]

Afghanistan got along great without us.

Till they didn't:embarrest:

I think you mean "Al Qaeda" never got along with us.. never will.

 

[amoeba]

I and F fund share price vs. tracking indices, again

I'll never figure it out:

EFA goes up, I share price goes down,

AGG goes down the same amount it went up yesterday, but the F share price is down about a third.

However it's been explained before with the fair value and what not, it never will make sense to me. Over a few days, they track well, but the variation on a daily basis, even the direction, is not parallel between the indices and share prices.

I had expected to break that negative 3% goal today, but it was not to be.

My trading mind remains a-fog with doubt. JTH has posted on his account talk of holding out for another 1-2% drop in S-fund before tripling down or more, perhaps; a few more have waded in (IFT's to equities, that is) late today.

I'd be happy getting out of this month with a half percent (gain, that is).

After the close Google missed on Q1.....not much reaction in overseas markets.....

 

[JTH]

Amoeba, I don't like to give out investment advice, because I can't know you as well as you know yourself. However, I'll give you a few tidbits that may work for you.

Of the top 100 on the Auto tracker, only 4 have an allocation in the F-Fund, with a combined total of 1.8% out of the 100 allocations.

See the pink circle on the 6-Month chart. AGG is trading below the 25% high/low, this chart is in a bear market. Also notice AGG is approaching the dominant declining red trendline and you want to jusdge the reaction to that line.
View attachment 10933


On the 1-year chart AGG is trading below the 50% level, again it's in a bear market (as I see it.) On this timeline you can see it may be forming a Head and shoulders. I really could care less about that, but I might expect it to retrace 50% of the previous high, taking it up to 105.5
View attachment 10934

Here's my take. When you factor in a comparison of the G-Fund vs. the F-Fund, I don't believe F is worth the risk you assume and the IFT you use. I'd rather take less money but money guaranteed vs. using a valuable IFT and assuming the risk in today's clearly Bearish Bond Market. Were AGG in a clearly defined uptrend, then it would be a different story.
One last thing, on Jan 11th 2011 I identified a Bearish 50/200 SMA death Cross in my Golden Cross thread. My personal opinion is the 50/200 SMA is the standard by which a Bear/Bull market should be identified. I realize some folks like the Milkman are playing the F-Fund, but I'm not the Milkman and I don't know what his thought process is when he makes those plays. More importantly his trades and the trades others make do not factor into my trades because we all have different goals. But at the same time if others are doing something better than me, then I have to identify what I'm doing wrong and be flexible enough to adjust.

I hope this helps

 

[amoeba]

JTH:

I know exactly what you are talking about with the death cross; and I got creamed thinking that strategy last year when we had a triple cross of the 50/200 in a period of 2 months.

So to heck with that - I mean - as an exact number. The other thing, either you or Boghie reminded me at the time - was that the death cross becomes more predictive when it derives from multiple indices; now - I know the bond and equities don't necessarily correlate - but they aren't inverse either. And there's always the carrot out there for those who have an IFT burning a whole in their pocket at the end of the month to catch the dividend; or to carryover.

The risk - as I saw it; was minimal. It was basically a hedge against a smaller position/average in on the S-fund; and I must say - as of this moment; it is working out nicely.

As to the disfavor of the F-fund, you'll see that change whenever small caps fall out of favor (and there HAVE been years, the late 90's, in which this has been a longer term laggard behind the C and F, not today's situation of course) - so I ain't shrugging it off. I'm basically going back to my roots - pinching some pennies here and there where I can see an oversell. And that's what I feel F is at the moment. Perhaps declining further long term, but an OK bet right now.

As far as comparing me to others' return; your first thought is the correct one: better to not. I do look at the moves as a sentiment indicator - I don't necessarily say I'm "wrong".

My goal remains the same - get under negative 3%.