amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

With two trading days left it doesn't look like I'm gonna make it; don't think I beat G-fund for 3 consecutive days all month; I tried; dammitall.

It was actually 4 days...more than a week ago, feel stuck in goo....I'm about where I was January 20. Only ostriches will be in stocks at the close Monday.

 

[dannyboy]

I see a lot of moves posted that violate the (2 moves per month) rule.

 

[nasa1974]

I see a lot of moves posted that violate the (2 moves per month) rule.

After your 2 IFT's per month you are allowed as many moves to the "G" fund as you have funds available and only the "G" fund.
Example: On March 1st you are 100% "C" fund and on the 5th, you decide to go 50/50 "C" "S" (1st IFT). On the 15th you decide you want to move 20% to the "G" fund (2nd IFT) and your new allocation is 20% "G", 40% "C" & 40% "S". Now you are allowed to make as many IFT's as you would like from the "C" fund or "S" fund or both as long as it is ONLY to the "G" fund.

 

[tsptalk]

I see a lot of moves posted that violate the (2 moves per month) rule.

You're right. Ironically, you (dannyboy), not amoeba, were one of the three accounts with an invalid IFT this month.

The others were, as nasa said, only increasing the G-fund on #3 or more.



All this means is that these accounts are not eligible for a prize in this month's (March) contest, nor the end of year finals contest. I usually catch it when giving out the prizes, although I may have missed one or two over the years.

 

[amoeba]

With two trading days left it doesn't look like I'm gonna make it; don't think I beat G-fund for 3 consecutive days all month; I tried; dammitall.

Closed March ahead of the G-fund after all (0.44%, catching it on 3/31/2025, although I had caught it previously on 3/20/2025 before P-ing it away). I will lower my goal further for April to being non-negative (>0.0%). Obviously I would like to do better, but these are difficult times.

This week is a complete toss up. At least for me. As of now, POTUS has made clear - or making us think he has - that there is a tariff plan with details to be released at some yet-to-be-disclosed time on April 2 (I will guess during market hours, won't that be awesome?). And - - - far be it for me to speculate - - - but there's no market indication of a leak as to what it may entail.....could....be....anything (country by country, but there are some big ones, and neighbors).

Then payrolls Friday; should be weak...

Earlier this month, my Wells Fargo FA allowed clients to listen in on their March 11 volatility call (they hold these 2X weekly, internally); which was interesting....5,500 was seen as a reasonable buy in for a positive return within 3-6 months...but not necessarily "the" low....leaning more towards 5,200-5300 or, get this: 4,900. The comparison was extremes over the last 2-3 years (not counting Covid). And....the declines to come from both ends (megaCaps and small caps); with lessor impact in the midCap space (that being also the best place for new money). Specific stocks were not disclosed; buys/sells are in the monthly statements - which I read once a year (tax time).

 

[amoeba]

Yesterday and especially today, I placed sizable short bets, although the low volume updrift was puzzling. But with tariff details, that is now dumb money. Next mega issue?

Sent from my moto g 5G (2022) using Tapatalk

 

[amoeba]

Well, I sold my shorts last couple days and, while there's absolutely no indication that POTUS will waver on tariffs, he has a lifetime history of bathing in the glory of "making a deal". Not all is or can be domesticated so the potential offers to reduce tariffs are difficult to predict, probably complex. Which means unlikely to be immediate. So while there may be a very brief deadcat bounce, there may not be any at all. In which latter case multiple compression, in my opinion, would continue until some no brainer buy level. SPY P/E is what? 17? That could go down to perhaps 11-13. It could take months.

Sent from my moto g 5G (2022) using Tapatalk

 

[amoeba]

Well, I sold my shorts last couple days and, while there's absolutely no indication that POTUS will waver on tariffs, he has a lifetime history of bathing in the glory of "making a deal". Not all is or can be domesticated so the potential offers to reduce tariffs are difficult to predict, probably complex. Which means unlikely to be immediate. So while there may be a very brief deadcat bounce, there may not be any at all. In which latter case multiple compression, in my opinion, would continue until some no brainer buy level. SPY P/E is what? 17? That could go down to perhaps 11-13. It could take months.

Sent from my moto g 5G (2022) using Tapatalk

I still believe the above for the time being; in summary, there may be no meaningful bounce notwithstanding the decline so far, it seems extremely risky to time it, and the market is likely going considerably lower. Everything. Only G-fund appears safe and I have ended this buzz-cut bailing to G. I am looking below 4,500, whether this month or next.

I am not happy. I set a very low April target of not ending the month negative; and I likely will not meet it now. If there's a black swan of sorts rivalling 1987 Black Monday (one day loss of 20% or more); I may make a small stab into it but I've had it otherwise. Dammitall!

 

[FAAM]

Did you mean you "bought your Shorts-short-positions to cover" on or just before last Saturday... or that you actually sold shorts just before the spring-summer hot season? If you covered some good short-positions, then congrats as you likely did pretty well... especially if you then spent the proceeds to buy into some good Long-positions yesterday & early this-morning before the big PAUSE-Tariff announcement and big boom-boom UPs in the markets today. Hope you had some longs & made back some bucks today!

 

[amoeba]

Did you mean you "bought your Shorts-short-positions to cover" on or just before last Saturday... or that you actually sold shorts just before the spring-summer hot season? If you covered some good short-positions, then congrats as you likely did pretty well... especially if you then spent the proceeds to buy into some good Long-positions yesterday & early this-morning before the big PAUSE-Tariff announcement and big boom-boom UPs in the markets today. Hope you had some longs & made back some bucks today!

Nope. Was all cash, I was watching when the move happened, but it took at least 5minutes for MSNBC to disclose the Truth Social post, and a half hour to give details. By then the move was essentially complete. There's still substantial tariff that, if implemented in 90 days, would kill earnings for the last quarter or more.

 

[amoeba]

My pathetic goal for April 2025 of not going negative was failing hope with the F fund, but now resurrected with a few more IFT moves; cashing in half today. Maybe I will make it up 1%. Maybe not. At some point, POTUS social media posts/changes-of-mind, will have less of an effect than the effect of any remaining tariffs. I give it two weeks, max, to achieve some exit strategy from this tariff nonsense, or 90% of it; if not, SPY could easily degrade to 4,500 by early May.

 

[amoeba]

My pathetic goal for April 2025 of not going negative was failing hope with the F fund, but now resurrected with a few more IFT moves; cashing in half today. Maybe I will make it up 1%. Maybe not. At some point, POTUS social media posts/changes-of-mind, will have less of an effect than the effect of any remaining tariffs. I give it two weeks, max, to achieve some exit strategy from this tariff nonsense, or 90% of it; if not, SPY could easily degrade to 4,500 by early May.

+1% monthly goal achieved by miracle of the I-fund and it's fair value pricing; whether skill or luck; so went completely into 100% G fund last COB, until May 1...the tariff fuse remains lit for China; the status quo for tariffs of this country alone will create quite the economic reaction very soon if unmodified....I'm thinking days. Next Tuesday at the latest. And then he speaks and says something else. Or doesn't.