amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

relevance and irrelevance (tracey ray)

Relevance:

pick your favorite bad sign for stocks in the next 6-9 months

a) gold inflows
b) housing market and results therefin (to those that own homes)
c) oil
d) unemployment

Irrelevance:

pretty much anything tracey ray ever said (see earlier posts from TSP interfund transfer limits, some black humor, I guess)

a) like most people can't do better than the S&P
b) those people who keep going in and out "will be sorry" later this year

as Dr. Evil said........"yeahhhhh, riiiigggghhhhttt"

 

[amoeba]

85% G - sounds like a smart move.

It's hard to avoid the "dead cat bounce" mentality when over the years it's been fairly predictable and dependable.

Main problem is the 2 ITFs (as you noted). Most likely senario at this point looks like you may get a 1 day bounce - before the downward acceleration kicks in.

I'm floored things are going down faster; wondering

Steadygain's crystal ball prompted me to take some quick gains last friday on the I fund; now I'm pared down to 3% I, 3% F, and 94% good old G.

As far as the rest of this month is concerned; I'll use it as practice....see if I can pick some exit point on the remainder of I and F and pull out a gain, or at least minimize the loss. See you all in October.....after the election.

 

[Steadygain]

With two ITF's, I will use my second to rebalance tomorrow (85% G, 8% I, 7% F), and see if the dead cat will bounce again.

85% G - sounds like a smart move.

It's hard to avoid the "dead cat bounce" mentality when over the years it's been fairly predictable and dependable.

Main problem is the 2 ITFs (as you noted). Most likely senario at this point looks like you may get a 1 day bounce - before the downward acceleration kicks in.

I'm floored things are going down faster; wondering

 

[KevinD]

I was thinkin' stiletto pumps... :nuts:

 

[amoeba]

well people:

I'm tiptoe-ing back in action. 20% in (6C,7S,7I); part of my recent attempts to pick a two-transfer bottom (since that's all I get); try for some bottom fish, dead cats, and the like; on the horizon are various bigger factors, election, cap gains tax break sunset (or whatever who is elected will decide to do with it), housing "crisis" (for those of us who own, or looking to sell, I wouldn't call it a crisis for buyers), mortgage rates, global economy, etc. Not looking that far out.

But if you don't play, you can't win.

Amoeba out.

Did I say that? well, maybe if you don't play you can't lose, which is what I did today, in the form of negatory 3%.

With two ITF's, I will use my second to rebalance tomorrow (85% G, 8% I, 7% F), and see if the dead cat will bounce again. That was the quickest $800 I lost, and without the entertainment value of blackjack or slots.

Bottom yo mama.

 

[amoeba]

well people:

I'm tiptoe-ing back in action. 20% in (6C,7S,7I); part of my recent attempts to pick a two-transfer bottom (since that's all I get); try for some bottom fish, dead cats, and the like; on the horizon are various bigger factors, election, cap gains tax break sunset (or whatever who is elected will decide to do with it), housing "crisis" (for those of us who own, or looking to sell, I wouldn't call it a crisis for buyers), mortgage rates, global economy, etc. Not looking that far out.

But if you don't play, you can't win.

Amoeba out.

 

[amoeba]

well, I've done just about jack since I started tracking - after conducting 16 IFT's before that. My yeartodate return (since jan 1, not shown), are about 1.51%.

I know that puts me below G fund (where I am, 100%) but I went chicken recently, when every fund (including F, where I was) got taken apart in the "take no prisoners" slaughter of the beginning of June. Then, of course, F had it's moments, but they have been fleeting.

I'm not sure how confident I am in F anymore, although it looks like a bargain - and I wonder how many suckers will buy into the market in the face of "not as bad as I thought news" (less than expected declines in home prices, for example). Seems like more and bigger daily swings in the fund prices than earlier this year. Picking when to buy, hold, walk away, or run, is the trick.

Anyway, I'm watching daily - and may make a modest move soon (I'll be on vacation then, and not watching for 10 days). Should be interesting.

 

[Steadygain]

It's pretty cool joining the Auto Tracker because you get to keep up on what anyone's doing when ever you want.

There's a good mix here - so it's helpful when you see everyone getting in or getting out.

Plus a lot of times the crowd will change their allocations and show it on the tracker - but not talk about it elsewhere.

Possible Scenario - we just hit the "second bottom" and are on the way up.

Join now - the next few weeks you'll have nothing but gains - which makes you look like the greatest pro around

 

[EW_ret]

So....another dumb beginner question.....can I see the other member's realloctions.....and if so, how? (I don't care if you look at mine, here goes_:

My strategy is averaging down (G-F-C-S-I) and rethink this when I have more IFT's to use next month - but here's the recent activity.

6/18 (before I started) 40%35%5%5%15%

6/19 (day I'm on tracker)
50%35%2%2%6%

tomorrow
80%0%0%17%3%

I'm betting on some rotation and favorable, temporary, changes in the yield curve in advance or near the Fed meeting.

My year-to-date return as of yesterday was 0.75%, with 13 reallocations.

My peak return after a trade, was a mere 2.28% on May 20, 2008, and since then I fell below the G fund. Hope to learn something here.

To see the days IFT allocation go to View IFT of the day (click). This shows the current, and past, IFTs that members have made. Members who subscribe to a premium service will not show fund allocations, or recent returns.

To see member rankings and current fund allocations go to Members Ranking and Allocation (click). The ranking is by Return to Date, or Year To Date (YTD). Members who subscribe to a premium service will not show fund allocations, or recent returns.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Can we see each other's reallocations? here's mine

So....another dumb beginner question.....can I see the other member's realloctions.....and if so, how?

Our allocations are extremely guarded and private; and seldom does anyone mention them.

BUT THAT'S COOL MY FRIEND - AS YOU'RE FAIRLY NEW.

We use the Auto Tracker - which is like a huge platinum vault - probably 3,000 times more secure than any bank vault.

To enter go to the top thread of Member's Accout Talk and maybe 3 down from the top you'll see Auto Tracker Rules. You have to go through EW_ret, who is like the bank president and request to join. He'll send you the 128 K - complex encrypted code along with your own membership.

Once you get that you can see everyone's allocations and also how each one is doing in comparison to the others.

You can also see how the members are switching on any particular day.

All you need is 5 members to like you - and you're in - and right now there are at least 70 members that like you a lot.

Welcome my friend

Oh yeal, almost forgot - around here there are no "dumb questions"

Steadygain

 

[amoeba]

Can we see each other's reallocations? here's mine

So....another dumb beginner question.....can I see the other member's realloctions.....and if so, how? (I don't care if you look at mine, here goes_:

My strategy is averaging down (G-F-C-S-I) and rethink this when I have more IFT's to use next month - but here's the recent activity.

6/18 (before I started) 40%35%5%5%15%

6/19 (day I'm on tracker)
50%35%2%2%6%

tomorrow
80%0%0%17%3%

I'm betting on some rotation and favorable, temporary, changes in the yield curve in advance or near the Fed meeting.

My year-to-date return as of yesterday was 0.75%, with 13 reallocations.

My peak return after a trade, was a mere 2.28% on May 20, 2008, and since then I fell below the G fund. Hope to learn something here.

 

[Buster]

Well done mate..welcome to your own thread...

Let's party

 

[nnuut]

Weclome you little Devil!
Best of luck!!
Norman

 

[Guest2]

WELCOME (OHH SINGLE CELLED ONE) :nuts:

 

[XL-entLady]

And we will look forward to visiting it often.:laugh:

Lady

 

[amoeba]

This is the start of my account talk thread.