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amoeba's Account Talk
- Thread starter amoeba
- Start date
Boghie
Well-known member
Now that you bring it up that way, you will be correct. I was using averages of ratios - which is a rather dumb mistake.
What formula are you using? I use Quicken's IRR for my personal account - but obviously cannot when talking about others. Talking Return on Investment is better than averages of ratios.
Back to topic. I really don't care if someone has gained 3% over three years or lost 3% over three years. Neither is good. However, BirchTree (and others) give themselves the opportunity to recover. Amoeba is not. And, I think he has the skills to do so.
I use a calculator to figure returns.If you can miss the big down years you do not need to recover, the S&P 500 is down over the last 10 years.http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^GSPC&t=my&l=on&z=l&q=l&c=
Boghie
Well-known member
I slept on it after computing the returns the way you described. You are using a Compounded Annual Growth Rate (CAGR). It is also known as an Internal Rate of Return. More advanced versions of the formula incorporate the affect of contributions. Here is the formula and discussion.
http://www.moneychimp.com/features/market_cagr.htm
(For some reason none of the buttons on the editor have worked since yesterday afternoon. Also, the main page of the MB sticks on 'Loading' for the three columns of recent entries)
Here is the formula: (1 + <Average Return>)^2 - StdDev^2 = (1 + CAGR)^2
Again, my real point to Amoeba is that he is not giving himself the time to succeed. Not every year is 1929 or 2008. He has to find a risk ratio he is willing to gut out and allow the market to swing around a bit. These tight up/down stops do not allow for normal fluctuation - and they seem far more influenced by greed and fear than stated. That is a leason I learned early last year.
Boghie:You just don't get it. You can't average negative and positive returns and say the average is what you get; it's mathematically incorrect. BT's loss wiped out everything he had for a decade. BT made zero money; in fact, he had a loss. All because he just didn't know how to fold.
My point exactly.
FAB1
Well-known member
JamesE
Member
Meebs, I highly doubt that you will get the opportunities of 2009-10 again in your career, I know I won't. If you avoided the big fall in 08, you really don't have to try that hard to be ahead those of us that didn't. In fact, if you would have went all in March 6th 09, you'd have smoked pretty much everybody.
I do enjoy reading your posts, I can tell you are market saavy.
You just can't spend your time hiding under the bed in a market like this one. A year or two from now, who knows...
I do enjoy reading your posts, I can tell you are market saavy.
You just can't spend your time hiding under the bed in a market like this one. A year or two from now, who knows...
Birchtree
Well-known member
My previous tracker percentages are all understated from reality because there is no mechanism to account for dollar cost averaging. The 2008 devaluation was worse than stated because every time I put in freash DCA money buying more shares toward the bottom they were worth less. But when the turn came it was glorious to the upside. I've been buying this market all the way up in my oceanic account and that's also been glorious - making me wealthy.
JTH
Well-known member
Quit coping, every time someone makes a point, you spout off "My oceanic account." This is TSP and your TSP account took it in the shorts, so now you're all sack & no groceries. And for those who think "that was a once in a lifetime buying opportunity" it happened 10 years ago, once in July 2002 & once in October 2002. And it's going to happen again, and you won't have to wait 10 years for it to happen.
Birchtree
Well-known member
all out till jobs number friday
Not to be influenced:
But JTH is on a streak; BT is nothing but a buy-and-holder who hasn't made a dime in decade(s).
Back to basics - the current state is that we have news (Libya) distracting attention from the other market forces; which may lead to an overbuy if/when it is resolved over there.
My feeling is that people are buying in on expectation that oil price speculation will end/reverse; leading to an inflation of the GDP estimates.
Maybe. But in the final analysis; the jobs/housing picture here feels very weak - and we're coming up on a triple whammy; end of QE; government debt issues; and very slow job recovery - and since you need job growth to get housing growth, how is this going to end?
My guess is with a healthy correction, more on the order of 8-10% rather than the 5-6% we just had. In tune with JTH's position, I am all out in advance of the jobs # this friday. I predict +140,000, and a market sell that continues through monday.
Not to be influenced:
But JTH is on a streak; BT is nothing but a buy-and-holder who hasn't made a dime in decade(s).
Back to basics - the current state is that we have news (Libya) distracting attention from the other market forces; which may lead to an overbuy if/when it is resolved over there.
My feeling is that people are buying in on expectation that oil price speculation will end/reverse; leading to an inflation of the GDP estimates.
Maybe. But in the final analysis; the jobs/housing picture here feels very weak - and we're coming up on a triple whammy; end of QE; government debt issues; and very slow job recovery - and since you need job growth to get housing growth, how is this going to end?
My guess is with a healthy correction, more on the order of 8-10% rather than the 5-6% we just had. In tune with JTH's position, I am all out in advance of the jobs # this friday. I predict +140,000, and a market sell that continues through monday.
But this is a positive headline - libya will be a the dominant positive that takes the day; and I'm talking about a correction, not a shift from the bull market (200<50 ema); it's a ways away from that...
Well:
I have some work to do, don't I? There have been various strategies tried, more than one that have worked, and mine was not among them. That said, I made my move, it was only a few days, and I am sticking with it (like I have a choice?)...a disappoints on the jobs #; emotion can only do so much....no....actually, the market could shrub off a bad jobs number. And it has before (some other bad trades I made last fall). And it shrugged off a good one and sold it, when was that? Oh that's right, it was last month!!!!
So much ado....but what will happen, will happen. I may go back to what "worked" earlier this year for me (if you can define working as not losing money, like my more recent moves); that being an average in on a down day and double-triple down on sharper moves downward. We'll see. There are those like Boghie that think we're in for another anxious summer. With QE scheduled to end, I wouldn't be surprised at a lull.
I think the 175,000 jobs is a bit rich this time of year.....and sure.....there has been some hiring out here (CA) for software engineers, but it's not big numbers, and alot of them are imports from China and Japan (seriously - they're all up in the mountains skiing like me on weekdays). Still no shortage of applicants, just expertise, in that field.
I have some work to do, don't I? There have been various strategies tried, more than one that have worked, and mine was not among them. That said, I made my move, it was only a few days, and I am sticking with it (like I have a choice?)...a disappoints on the jobs #; emotion can only do so much....no....actually, the market could shrub off a bad jobs number. And it has before (some other bad trades I made last fall). And it shrugged off a good one and sold it, when was that? Oh that's right, it was last month!!!!
So much ado....but what will happen, will happen. I may go back to what "worked" earlier this year for me (if you can define working as not losing money, like my more recent moves); that being an average in on a down day and double-triple down on sharper moves downward. We'll see. There are those like Boghie that think we're in for another anxious summer. With QE scheduled to end, I wouldn't be surprised at a lull.
I think the 175,000 jobs is a bit rich this time of year.....and sure.....there has been some hiring out here (CA) for software engineers, but it's not big numbers, and alot of them are imports from China and Japan (seriously - they're all up in the mountains skiing like me on weekdays). Still no shortage of applicants, just expertise, in that field.
Opposite of flax to gold?
Answer: my last 1.5 years of IFT's
I was wrong about the jobs number, waited a day for the news to settle, waded in 30%I 70%F; and, of course; BOTH funds go down together.
I do have another IFT to double/triple down - if I so desire. I actually have no sense anymore of what the market could do - - - - not even a right or wrong one.......my sentiment vote has been "neutral" for a little while here.
Today's late sell was disappointing - but the volumes were moderate - so hopefully not much ado.I really thought - given poolman's entry into F - that I could have rode it up and rebalanced, but that was not to be.........
Anyway - I did not sell down.....at least not yet.......last time, I rode a 2% gain into 3.5%+ loss, before bailing; and then was timid and late getting back in. And then, the comedy of errors continued with today's trade. BT can lay it on me - I could do better flipping coins, unless I'm worse at that, too. But no - I have no pennies or dartboards......yet.
To sum up, phooey!!!
Answer: my last 1.5 years of IFT's
I was wrong about the jobs number, waited a day for the news to settle, waded in 30%I 70%F; and, of course; BOTH funds go down together.
I do have another IFT to double/triple down - if I so desire. I actually have no sense anymore of what the market could do - - - - not even a right or wrong one.......my sentiment vote has been "neutral" for a little while here.
Today's late sell was disappointing - but the volumes were moderate - so hopefully not much ado.I really thought - given poolman's entry into F - that I could have rode it up and rebalanced, but that was not to be.........
Anyway - I did not sell down.....at least not yet.......last time, I rode a 2% gain into 3.5%+ loss, before bailing; and then was timid and late getting back in. And then, the comedy of errors continued with today's trade. BT can lay it on me - I could do better flipping coins, unless I'm worse at that, too. But no - I have no pennies or dartboards......yet.
To sum up, phooey!!!
Boghie
Well-known member
Amoeba,
There are lots of folks who boom at the beginning of a year and lose it all over the summer - or a bad fall...
April will likely be a bellwether month for the mid-year. As you know.
Keep your head up. Mix in a bit more greed with the fear. And, look for better times.
There are lots of folks who boom at the beginning of a year and lose it all over the summer - or a bad fall...
April will likely be a bellwether month for the mid-year. As you know.
Keep your head up. Mix in a bit more greed with the fear. And, look for better times.
Amoeba,
There are lots of folks who boom at the beginning of a year and lose it all over the summer - or a bad fall...
April will likely be a bellwether month for the mid-year. As you know.
Keep your head up. Mix in a bit more greed with the fear. And, look for better times.
Yeah - I know, I was up 5% by end of last april, lost it all, and had to scratch to get back to positive - just totally bamboozled by the double death cross.....and back again......and then not touching the 50-200 EMA for 3 months? and then doing it for 1 day? good job reports being shrugged, bad ones being bought, and then good ones (last one) being bought and held? and then sold at mid-day?
I'm not overanalyzing.....there's just no pattern out there.......I see nothing......BTW, I personally was disappointed by the jobs report......not the headline number......but the % participation at an exceptional low (64.2%, if memory serves). Why is that good? Sounds like not alot of people working, or even looking. Why shouldn't they be? (crappy jobs).
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