amoeba's Account Talk

[JTH]

My goal remains the same - get under negative
3%.

That's not a very lofty goal considering you're only .14% away from -2.99% In 2010 I was down over -3% by March 1st. I did manage to finish the year at 15.02% so it can be done.

 

[amoeba]

steady as she goes:

I don't put much faith in today; the volumes remain light; still - news has been so-so; and the market is maintaining - with the ^VIX <16 which it hasn't been in awhile.

I'll be keeping an eye on 720 or somewhere close to it on the tracking index as upside resistance to the S-fund; and ~105.75-105.90 in the AGG; but given the uncertainty in the share-price of the F and I funds themselves, I held both of those for at least another day.....

Two more of our top-30 (JTH and soam) have jumped into the S-fund party.

April is an exciting month, better if money is made than lost - so I'll be booking profits if the situation merits it. May is another month....the year is not over, until its over.

 

[amoeba]

tell me something I don't know, S&P

Everyone was blindsided, but this is not news, just a report:

Volumes are average, and the ^VIX rise is very moderate; if this is all that is going to happen, it is a buy or at least a hold, so that is where I'm at;

I just shifted things around a bit; I am close to the target on the F-fund share price.

This better not be one of those "delayed reaction" melt-down/melt-ups like the tsunami fiasco.

Anyway - I should be somewhere north of negative 5% return by COB. Funny thing is, I'll be moving up the rankings, FWIW.

I wish I could catch every bounce like I catch every dip. Yick.

 

[amoeba]

mediocre buying interest in afternoon; futures down across the board; tomorrow looks like it is "another one of those days".

I'd previously thought we would retrace back to the 200 EMA on the tsunami; we didn't (except for EFA); and so I miessed that rally, caught this dip, and now what's gonna happen?

Hard to say.....not much to go on; except european markets that experienced worse; this is a fairly mild S&P downgrade warning as these things go. Not sure what to do. I am not the sort to sit on my hands for long. There are ~9 trading days left before new IFT's. I'd like to stay above negative 4% (having reached my goal and NOT bailing, like I should have), if I can......

retracement to the 200 EMA on the SPY would be something around 1233; the midpt between the 200 and 50 is ~1270 or so.

hard-breaking curve ball. Swung and missed. What now?

 

[burrocrat]

mediocre buying interest in afternoon; futures down across the board; tomorrow looks like it is "another one of those days".

I'd previously thought we would retrace back to the 200 EMA on the tsunami; we didn't (except for EFA); and so I miessed that rally, caught this dip, and now what's gonna happen?

Hard to say.....not much to go on; except european markets that experienced worse; this is a fairly mild S&P downgrade warning as these things go. Not sure what to do. I am not the sort to sit on my hands for long. There are ~9 trading days left before new IFT's. I'd like to stay above negative 4% (having reached my goal and NOT bailing, like I should have), if I can......

retracement to the 200 EMA on the SPY would be something around 1233; the midpt between the 200 and 50 is ~1270 or so.

hard-breaking curve ball. Swung and missed. What now?

Me too. No way was I bailing today at the first sign of trouble. But tomorrow has me worried. And I am on the road super early so I'd have to pull the trigger tonight with no indication in the morning.

I guess I'm hanging in there and going to eat some more.

Thank you sir, may I have another?

 

[amoeba]

Me too. No way was I bailing today at the first sign of trouble. But tomorrow has me worried. And I am on the road super early so I'd have to pull the trigger tonight with no indication in the morning.

I guess I'm hanging in there and going to eat some more.

Thank you sir, may I have another?

Yes you may. Futures are down across the board - be advised these can vary all over the place between now and the open.....I know I'm not supposed to average down.....but.....

this just about the worse possible scenario; half the month left; no IFT's to buy into a snap-back; and the 200 EMA lurking way benenath.

I have no idea what is gonna happen. Can anyone say correction - if they did 10% from the high ~1,210. Yick again.

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

Maybe the 'Market Futures' has some value, but all I've seen it predict is 'The Dumb Money Hour'.

Yesterday was a shock. The market does not like shocks. It will head back to the norm because most folks have some level of confidence in politicians. Not Me Though. They are a clueless lot who have very little knowledge of the economy or the market. And our very own elected Black Swan is aflight:embarrest:.

I'll let the market reset to the norm and start moving part of my holdings out. Goin' away by May.

Me thinks I will pray that James is correct and funds locked in the 'G Fund' will remain liquid for at least a little while. I want no part of the 'F Fund'. Also, this little burp has demonstrated that the strength during such episodes is in the 'C Fund'. The 'I Fund' dumped 2X the 'C Fund'. Lesson Learned.

 

[amoeba]

Boghie:

The F-fund bet is, as I said before, some penny tossing on what is oversold. I actually reached target today - but am holding out for the share price to post before getting out of that.

As for the rest of the lot - it's hard to discern between the super-low volume buy/holding today, perhaps breath-holding for Congress to come back, or the claims number later this week or who knows what - and what you say, the market coming back to a norm.

So what is "normal"; for all the technical analysis and the intraday lows and so-forth, it caught most of us by surprise - - - - and just because there was a recent surprise, doesn't mean there can't be another.

For example - what if the job claims number came in slightly high? would there be a combined effect of both news in the same week? Or would the market shrug it off, until Congress does it's fire drill on the S&P report - and come up with what? Probably nothing - since that's what has happened for the last couple years as far as deficit reduction.

Frankly - I don't know what's gonna happen; my inkling is to side with S&P on their warning; lawmakers can't do jack sheet other than spend more money, and we will know that truth - or they'll change there thinking, very shortly here.

Ergo - half in, and half out, COB today; bail on F-fund tomorrow; and bail on anything else that bounces significantlybefore next week.

And then there's people, like you, who sit out the summer....you don't think you're the only one, do you?

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

I'm not 'sitting out' the market over the summer. I am just reducing volatility. I will be between 50% and 70% in the equity funds for the duration of summer. That cushions me and gives me peace of mind during volatility.

I don’t believe I can time a market well enough to swing 100%.

This ain’t 2009 so I don’t want to party like its 1999.

It is a normal market with normal concerns.

 

[amoeba]

I-fund breaks back above the 50 ema; a hold?

Last 2 years or so, anytime the EFA broke below, and then back above, the 50 EMA; it rallied for at least a month - and sometimes much more.

I wasn't expecting it to recross so quickly, but it did - so maybe a hold?

As for F-fund - that has reached target, for me. I'll wait till the share price posts then ditch it.

I'm wondering if the job claims will hold below or go back above 400K, and factors like oil and so forth limiting GDP.

A mixed bag - but a hopeful one - I'd still like to exit under negative 3% this month. Or at least not have a(nother) negative month.

Volatility way too low. Volume very light. Alot of waiting and seeing (on Congress and the deficit) is my guess.

 

[Birchtree]

http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/tim-wood/what-the-dry-baltic-index-may-be-telling-us

 

[amoeba]

modest downtrend on very thin trading

title means what?

I think it portends a temporary market top. I see the SPY is having a hard time cracking 1,340; having been buffetted by headlines and exchange rates - and later this year - I suspect oil prices will come more into play.

I wimped to the sidelines with better than 1% gain for the month; which may not look grand at this time but the Alamo of last April and the cliff-drop turn of the market - whoa. Hate to be in there for another one of those.....alot of us boardmembers stuck our heads in the sand and it paid off Oct-Nov, but in between was gray hair territory.

10% corrections are commonplace in bull and bear markets; it's easy to use hindsight to say "what if" I pulled out here or there, but harder in advance. Recent years have witnessed pullbacks when everything looks good.....now may be one of those times. Anyhow, I don't see the market going to the moon between now and friday.

My goal for next month will be to get under NEGATIVE 2%; or a net of about 1/2% for May. Not sure how I'm gonna do it....but I'll try.

 

[JTH]

Perhaps you can set your goals even lower so they can be achieved.

Goals such as...

I think today I'll get out of bed before noon.

I think today I'll take a shower for the week.

If you stay in the G-Fund you can meet half your goals and not do anything at all

 

[Birchtree]

The future is now for the bold and assertive - grab the gusto and don't look back.

 

[amoeba]

don't look now - slim pickens for rest of year

Unfortunately:

I think the funds have reached their highs, or did, in February of this year.

There's money to be made, but only after a significant pullback.

No analysis this time....I just feel it....

Of course, now that I predicted it....it probably won't happen and the market will go to the moon by friday, then drop like a burning asteroid when I try to catch a knife next monday....

We'll see. The market usually goes up or down....rarely does it stay the same as it did today.

 

[JTH]

I see you have 17 IFTs YTD, thats ranked #4 out of over 600. Of the Fab 4, 3 are in the bottom of the tracker. See if you can realize there is a trend forming here. You move your money around too much, like a kid who shuffles around the food on his plate. The food is still there, but now it's colder and you still have to eat your vegetables...

 

[JTH]

Come back friend, I miss you. Congrats you've erased the -3s, and you're almost done with the -2s. It sucks being at the bottom, but hey look at me, and look where I was in 2009, I was in the bottom 10! Now I have a wife that loves me, my dog came back, I drive a mercedes, and people love me everywhere I go :cheesy:

 

[Birchtree]

Unfortunately he is borderline evanescent and I don't think he'll hang on much longer - joining those of history.

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

Time to get in with enough equity fund assets to support your retirement needs.

Find a few (three or four) allocations ranging from Conservative through Aggressive that will allow you to sleep at night. Never be all in or all out. Maybe a:

40% G/F
60% C/S/I​

That would give downside protection and permit the gathering of 60+% of potential gain.
And, give you enough time to move if a Terror Turd strikes.
And, buffer volatility for the summer season.

Holding 8% in equities does nothing. No chance for gaining in an up market. Basically a high interest bank account. Cheap meat Alpo for retirement.

 

[amoeba]

Come back friend, I miss you. Congrats you've erased the -3s, and you're almost done with the -2s. It sucks being at the bottom, but hey look at me, and look where I was in 2009, I was in the bottom 10! Now I have a wife that loves me, my dog came back, I drive a mercedes, and people love me everywhere I go :cheesy:

Was helping mom (84 yo) back in IL. I did notice your move in last thursday, and out again on the jobs number - - - I haven't checked your blog - - - - but you've been on a hot streak and it can't be ignored. I did because I was on travel.

I thought the job creation was suspiciously high, and did not jive with the new claims, the ADP, the unemployment rate (calculated separately), or the cost of energy, so I'm expecting a revision next month, and continued sell this monday as that information -and the post QE remarks by Bernanke - are digested (the sell began friday afternoon).

In contrast to past low volume fridays - this was a huge one - 222 million on the SPY, for example. That would be positive news on an up day, which this was, but mixed when you consider the very short term moving averages.