amoeba's Account Talk

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The charts haven't broken down, the S&P 500 closed last Friday just -2.45% down from the 52-week high. This is not a correction, it's a pullback thus far. Keep yourself in check, now is not the time to sell for a loss.

Here's some stats, do they look bearish?
View attachment 11069
 
JTH said:
The charts haven't broken down, the S&P 500 closed last Friday just -2.45% down from the 52-week high. This is not a correction, it's a pullback thus far. Keep yourself in check, now is not the time to sell for a loss.

Here's some stats, do they look bearish?
View attachment 11069
Click to expand...


No, last tuesday was the day to sell. I've been keeping myself in check - - - - and it hasn't helped. Since the afterhours is showing SPY breaching the 50 DMA, I may be licking wounds until next month if this continues.

Not looking like a good month. I thought June would be slow.
 
down with the ship I say!!!

Boghie said:
Things are starting to look quite tasty...

I love a nice correction...

Yummy...
Click to expand...

sheesh - nothings even in correction territory - yet......give it another 5-6%....but of course, you, (not me) have 2 IFTs to sell and rebuy, if you choose to, but since you didn't by now, you probably won't

EFA broke its 50 EMA without stopping; SPY is held it's 50 EMA but futures and afterhours are down. In fact everythings down for yet another day. I just couldn't bring myself to bail completely......

Talk about making a hash of one's IFT's...........yecchhh!!!!!!!!
 
Now what?

I literally have no idea what is going to happen tomorrow; the market has sometimes sold good job news, and bought bad; or done nothing. Anyway, the tracking indices have all breached their 50 EMA support for the time being.

What that means is hard to tell - I would have guessed a month of floundering but that didn't happen with the tsunami - but this feels different. It doesn't have much of a newsworthy, or economic basis. More like a tired market looking for a reason to go down, which it did.

soo....Now what?
 
Re: Now what? (the answer is.....)

amoeba said:
I literally have no idea what is going to happen tomorrow; the market has sometimes sold good job news, and bought bad; or done nothing. Anyway, the tracking indices have all breached their 50 EMA support for the time being.

What that means is hard to tell - I would have guessed a month of floundering but that didn't happen with the tsunami - but this feels different. It doesn't have much of a newsworthy, or economic basis. More like a tired market looking for a reason to go down, which it did.

soo....Now what?
Click to expand...


The answer is......bounce back above the 50 EMA for at least the SPY, but it at what has been low volume similar to that on the recent uptrend, suggesting that institutions were holding and selling the highs.

As JTH's blog says.....confirmation required.....the specter of a(nother) +400K job claims number tomorrow looms, as does more important economic data next week, especially if there is a string of disappointments.

OTOH, there may be a string of surprises. Who feels lucky? Or smart?

A few of us do.....but not historic bottom-fishers like poolman (2008 tracker leader, with +18%).

At this moment - I feel the market has more anxiety about Q2-Q3; this is tempered by some pullback in energy, for the moment. Uncertainty overall. Could go either way.
 
Well it does help to be a NAUI certified diver - so I can do that. Inorder to over come myopic loss aversion you have to learn to enjoy pain. The more pain you can accept the less of an impact it has on your portfolio - you know me well enough by now to know that I'm pain tolerant. I enjoy my sticky pants getting shredded by a bear claw.
 
Do yourself a favor, go to the store, buy a big bottle of superglue, open the big bottle of super glue, spread the superglue all over your hands, now go find a chair and sit on your hands.
 
Oh I don't mind James.....

If I didn't have his posts to read, I would have listened even less and lost even more $.

Still waiting for some of the up movers to use their IFTs this month.

I'm feelin this is NOT a turnback in sentiment, but perhaps a bump/selling opportunity if you haven't dumped already for the month.

Superglue indeed!
 
A string of pretty lame economic data, and the market turned up (!) around noon, what does this mean?


Check the volumes. Nobody home. Institutions/sovereign wealth funds sitting on sidelines. ^VIX doing nothing. Calm before the storm.

It means cut your fricking losses, an opportunity to get the heck out of dodge. I did. Friday often goes all over the place, so there may be a last chance then to sell too. Next week is a different matter - I think it's got sell written all over it; I expect to see the last of the knife-catchers begin to roll the dice once we drop another 3-4%.

Got out of this month with my shorts and socks perhaps, but not much more.
 
It's not the news that is important, but how the markets react to the news that really counts. The NYSE daily and weekly A/D line closed at all time highs two weeks ago. In that sort of environment pullbacks are orderly and lead to buying on weakness. This bull is operating many, many months into the future as a discount mechanism.
 
Birchtree said:
The best way to read how much money there is for investment in the stock market is the A/D line.
Click to expand...


no it isn't....and I wasn't referring to money for investment....I was referring to participation....which is indicated by volume. Today was another silly-low volume day.

looking at the ^vix and the daily hi/lo's; there's some mixed indications out there......something big will happen.....soon.

Tighten your seat belt.
 
Uncertainty, uncertainty, uncertainty. And I dont feel really comfortable
about the see-sawing weve seen lately, the gap didnt quite get filled in all the way. Friday is so Unpredictable too, gosh....

ALL That tells me this is the perfect time to be ALL in.
 
FAB1 said:
Uncertainty, uncertainty, uncertainty. And I dont feel really comfortable
about the see-sawing weve seen lately, the gap didnt quite get filled in all the way. Friday is so Unpredictable too, gosh....

ALL That tells me this is the perfect time to be ALL in.
Click to expand...


wanna bet on that? I say kablooey by the end of next week. Tomorrow still looks safe for a last chance get the heck out of dodge.

Buying into a crappy jobs #; weak home sales; etc....there's alot of deluded investors out there gonna get a shot of wake-up juice.
 
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