amoeba's Account Talk

[amoeba]

volumes picking up, and so is selling

182M shares in the SPY, on a friday no less:

Wonder what is in store for next week - - - - - I am still thinking down, but hard to say how much (more) - - - - a bunch of the tracker members are bunched up around the S-fund, some all in, others all out - - - - if that moves a couple more percent down, it could shake things up for those with IFTs left.

 

[Boghie]

Re: volumes picking up, and so is selling

182M shares in the SPY, on a friday no less:

Wonder what is in store for next week - - - - - I am still thinking down, but hard to say how much (more) - - - - a bunch of the tracker members are bunched up around the S-fund, some all in, others all out - - - - if that moves a couple more percent down, it could shake things up for those with IFTs left.

I've lost 2.7% from my high.
Where are those dang Campers.
All In or All Out - Who Knows Why?
The end is near, gotta wear Pampers.

Uh, Ok

 

[amoeba]

hi/low volume play

On the C-fund:

The last 3-4 months have shown a 1-2 day lag from days with volumes above 190M shares (almost always down days); and the next up move. At worst, the big-volume sell days are 2 in a row.

Last friday, was oddly high (182M), and sold like the others, but was on the cusp. Nothing in the futures (hard to rely on in any case) to hint at what happens tomorrow.

I am out. JTH just blogged a buy on one of his sytems for anyone interested - read it - FWIW, that's not what I'd do, but what I do is more frequently wrong in the last 11 months.

Oil/Gas/other commodities have been retreating - not sure how much of this is good (to buy other things, reduced speculation) versus bad (reduced demand generally).

 

[amoeba]

retreat to continue tomorrow

Despite the flailing round of IFT's going in today:

I say NO bounce yet - I'm thinking the SPY has to go farther below its 50 EMA before it does something else. Check back ~1,280-1,290; another 2% or so backwards this week.....

 

[burrocrat]

Re: retreat to continue tomorrow

Despite the flailing round of IFT's going in today:

I say NO bounce yet - I'm thinking the SPY has to go farther below its 50 EMA before it does something else. Check back ~1,280-1,290; another 2% or so backwards this week.....

Oh jeebus amoeba, you ever seen anything you like? Just what are you looking for? How perfect does it have to be before you jump on it? This is one heck of a ride setting up here.

Wheeeee, wheeee, wheee, wheeeeeeeeeee!

Is it the money that's draggin you down? Here's a tip, it ain't worth much now and the future looks grim, when you gonna get on board?

 

[nnuut]

Beware the Ides of QE3!

 

[JTH]

Friend, at least you have the balls to continue posting, unlike some other folks who only post when they are doing well, then suddenly disappear when their trades fall apart. Here's the thing I want you to keep in mind. The market doesn't care what you and I think, no not one bit. Predicting price might be a fun game, but reacting to price is where the money is made. Check out the transports, I tip my hat to him, he knows he's the leader and will force others to follow him. He's the one others react to, and he held his lines nicely today. While the herd is running scared over Europe, bad earnings, and QE2's end, the smart money is going to buy up these positions. Ask yourself where Europe's money will flow? Did you see the dollar today? The markets are perhaps correcting but they have a way of snapping back and when it does, you'll want to be in...

View attachment 11128

 

[Birchtree]

http://www.businessinsider.com/remember-that-disastrous-durable-goods-number-2011-5

 

[Birchtree]

http://theguruinvestor.com/2011/05/25/fisher-on-the-fretting-zone/

 

[amoeba]

today's action

eco data came out, so-so (GDP est) to misses (on the jobs), and what happens? Afternoon buying. I'm a bit mystified - altho some of this can be attributed to exchange rates and lack of big participation before the holiday weekend. But the volumes are not light by any means. So it cannot be ignored.

It looks like buying into weakness, it's just hard to fathom, weak eco data -especially several weeks of it, and high debt should not translate into a buying opportunity. I predicted the opposite. But that's not what happened. Yet. The day is not over - and neither is the week, or the year.

Sentiment survey is decidedly bearish so far. That includes me. Next tuesday will be the better indication of what is going on here.

 

[Birchtree]

If you tried standing on a chair perhaps you could see over the horizon.

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

You are like 70% bearish. The market is like 70% bullish. And when you get bullish we are at a market top. And, a 3% down move in a week has you looking for the 'Happy Campers'.

Son, yah got to get a grip.

The summer will probably be flat. Maybe some of the smart folk can make 2% - 3% with some good/lucky market timing, but the rest should soften up by 20% - 30%. Not 100%...

 

[amoeba]

finally some inkling of a reality check in the market on a trainload of bad news; stringing together how many is it? 3 wks in a row of losses, or is it 4? we'll see. market is probably looking for a miss on this weeks lame jobs forecast (140k), so it might be beat - and go up. Or not. What will happen if the market falls under the 100, and 200, EMAs, and/or emotional barriers like 1,300; remains to be seen. The recent history has witnessed very brief pullbacks even when this happens.....will it continue? Anyone's guess.

 

[amoeba]

scary

high volume selling looks toward 3rd consecutive day of >200m on the SPY; last time it did this was during the post-tsunami early-march debacle that I got swept up in and sold early; there was a snap-back then, but what about now?

scary as hell. What was up with that job number miss? was it May's energy (oil)? I haven't had time to digest it but it gives me pause for concern. On a friday - that gives the whole weekend for the traders to decide what follow thru is warranted on monday. I have no idea. I voted neutral on the survey, which means I might go in - might not, but it is heavily bearish.

Afishegg walked his talk of yesterday (all in, S-fund).....anyone else? Prime for a dead cat, or otherwise to kill a cat with a falling knife.

 

[amoeba]

not feeling good about that last IFT; negative sentiment high - that's supposed to be good, right?

OK - 3 days of selling -and not much of it, really. Considering how aweful the job # miss was.

So is this lingering optimism? Or will there be more "reality-check" selling monday. No idea.....which is why I made the half-hearted move; did a bunch of these in 2008, none of which paid off. I was a survivor more than a winner.

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

Half hearted moves are fine if you stick with them. You are still effectively 70% out of the market - so a 10% correction from here will leave you down 6% - 7%. But, at least you will experience some gain if your crystal ball is cloudy. You have to stick with some market risk to find some market growth.

Also, summer is generally flat. You cannot predict a market so why be 100% in or out - but, why accept a Black Swan risk when the numbers are against you.

Finally, have you visited a good financial advisor? All this herd following with panic selling and bubble buying is killing you. You should be thinking of buying when folks are hiding and selling when they are talking DOW 30,000. That is viable market timing. Why mess with 2% moves in a week. Just stick with it if it doesn't dump.

 

[amoeba]

It turns out my IFT wasn't timely processed, so I canceled it - - - Boghie can do as his heart desires - - - but buy-and-hold bcz "summers are flat"?

What summer are you talking about, which summer? Every summer? If it isn't this summer, who cares? And no one cares about the DOW here, since we don't have that as a TSP option.

Much obliged for the post Boghie, it helped me decide to stay on the sidelines. More people out there, who are yet to be taken to the cleaners, think a market is on a coiled spring and has to go up after it went down, and buy long term and so on.....nawww.....I don't believe in any of that stuff....haven't, since about 1999.

 

[JTH]

Friend, you would do well to know that our forum elder Boghie is not trying to sway you to the dark side of buy & hold investing, he is trying to save you from yourself. I say this with a heavy heart, you are wrecking your account with these hyper sensitive news-inflamed allocations, constantly shuffling your money around, locking in losses at every turn. It's like reaching out a helping hand to a heroin addict who can't "put the IFT down." We all make mistakes but eventually you have to get off the pot or sh!t and learn from them. That's it, that's all I'm going to say, my work is here is done...

 

[Birchtree]

Just think if he ever got into the stock market.

 

[Boghie]

It turns out my IFT wasn't timely processed, so I canceled it - - - Boghie can do as his heart desires - - - but buy-and-hold bcz "summers are flat"?

What summer are you talking about, which summer? Every summer? If it isn't this summer, who cares? And no one cares about the DOW here, since we don't have that as a TSP option.

Much obliged for the post Boghie, it helped me decide to stay on the sidelines. More people out there, who are yet to be taken to the cleaners, think a market is on a coiled spring and has to go up after it went down, and buy long term and so on.....nawww.....I don't believe in any of that stuff....haven't, since about 1999.

Amoeba,

I think it is almost time to buy into this market. Yummy, very yummy. I only hid 20% from this 6.6% market correction (make that collapse, crash, depression!!!). I've lost a horrific 4.72% from my YTD high!!! Oh, the horror - the horror.

I think I'll watch JTH's moves, SS (both varieties), and the new phenom MarkC who has made 1,562,893,528% in gains over the past 3 years. I used the watch Intrepid but he is now just a bunch of hyphens:cheesy:. Actually, now that I am staring at that Top 50 there are quite a few that I follow. Maybe I should trust other folks moves this year - mine have been both late and early:nuts:.

And, Amoeba, JTH is correct. I am trying to guide you away from dumb money moves. Ain't working though. Personally, I would like to be in your allocation right now, but to do so will lock in losses when the market is in correction - not collapse. I have hid 20%. That money will be invested early enough to enhance gains upon completion of the correction. Next time I'll trust myself a bit more and pull maybe 40% out for a marginal market timer move. Regardless I have 80% in equities for the spring back - and, I'll be out if the market moves against be by a few more points. Still have two IFTs.

Enjoy