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amoeba's Account Talk
- Thread starter amoeba
- Start date
thoughts of the day:
IFT-wise, some are jumping in the pool, others are getting out; and some notables (Poolman, JTH, others) gaining rank on the sidelines. ~13/30 top ranks are in G/F, and F may be getting more of a look. Main word on the forum is there is some sort of coiled spring bounce. If there is - - - it remains to be seen if it is sold or bought into. I'd like to hear what follows Bernanke's remarks this week.
Anyone ascribing to the 10% correction yardstick is looking at another area to the south of here ~1,230 or so in the SPY; maybe above that if recent losses of 5% and more have shown. Hard to say.
IFT-wise, some are jumping in the pool, others are getting out; and some notables (Poolman, JTH, others) gaining rank on the sidelines. ~13/30 top ranks are in G/F, and F may be getting more of a look. Main word on the forum is there is some sort of coiled spring bounce. If there is - - - it remains to be seen if it is sold or bought into. I'd like to hear what follows Bernanke's remarks this week.
Anyone ascribing to the 10% correction yardstick is looking at another area to the south of here ~1,230 or so in the SPY; maybe above that if recent losses of 5% and more have shown. Hard to say.
Boghie
Well-known member
The sound of music!!!
As Paul Revere apparently yelled when riding in the night - The Oil Ticks are Fighting, the Oil Ticks are Fighting.
Hopefully, the dumb money panics and makes my COB move that much more juicy. I was hoping for a 8% - 10% correction anyway. Bring it on.
The Oil Ticks will be cheating on their production quotas inside of five minutes.
With Iraq ramping up production...
The only problem I see is our Black Swan President - who seems determined to make our energy production more expensive. Is he dumb enough to keep on keeping. He is running for President. He is rather dumb economically. We shall see
As Paul Revere apparently yelled when riding in the night - The Oil Ticks are Fighting, the Oil Ticks are Fighting.
Hopefully, the dumb money panics and makes my COB move that much more juicy. I was hoping for a 8% - 10% correction anyway. Bring it on.
The Oil Ticks will be cheating on their production quotas inside of five minutes.
With Iraq ramping up production...
The only problem I see is our Black Swan President - who seems determined to make our energy production more expensive. Is he dumb enough to keep on keeping. He is running for President. He is rather dumb economically. We shall see
Boghie
Well-known member
Birch,
They will absolutely love it when the 'Black Swan Event President' flies over the corporation that finally hires them and drops it's load. This guy is B2 Bomber dangerous to our economy. The College Boys will love higher gas, higher food, higher rent, nasty credit requirements, lousy job opportunities, and the constant desire to raise taxes and burden evil corporate plutocrats with regulation.
Lessons Learned.
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
EXACTLY!
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
FAB1
Well-known member
This is the change he promised...Only utter idiots that weren't really listening to his campaign didnt know all this up-front and center
Obungle or McLame the Media's choice for fly-over country.
What choices are we gonna get next time?? - Im ready to write in dead guys names, buy plenty of heavy metals.
Scrappy
Member
FAB1,
I used to think it was that obvious and that "Only utter idiots weren't really listening" but after having conversation with a few who voted for Obama and reading FWM's posts, my view has changed.
Most of the voters would vote again. They are still locked in a never ending "Bush caused it" and superObama saved us from a recession. They think he gets little to no credit, makes great, intelligent, well thought decisions about everything, has as much or more integrity than any
other past president and just needs more time to be vindicated. Most of them actually believe he has done a great job under racist conditions and an uncooperative, progress blocking congress.
His general ideology is in line with their thinking and they see nothing but good and will twist and/or ignore absolutely anything and everything he says and does that is wrong/negative (to us).
Wouldn't surprise me to see him reelected.
The only one to exhibit any skill, authority, leadership, and a combination of intelligence and common sense necessary to challenge the ideology was trump and he isn't a scum bag politician so people gravitated to him but he never had a chance.
I just wish he could dump Biden and run with Weiner!
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
This is a result of the MSM being lock step behind him and they are setting the mood and tone for his re-election.
Scrappy
Member
This is a result of the MSM being lock step behind him and they are setting the mood and tone for his re-election.
You are right!
So, what about amoeba? He has all the intelligance and technical analysis ability but it doesn't seem to be helpful in achieving the goal. Each time I read this thread, I think of the Professor on Gilligan's Island.
near-sightedness getting worse
Especially on today's trade.....dip buying dominates....but volumes dropping (sellers waiting?).....jobs claims number was pretty much on target (tho not a good number); notable sideliners (JTH,Poolman) jumped in (see JTH's talk for the discussion) - as have most of the others in who have moved in the top 30. In fact, very few of the recent leader IFT's have been to safety.....but some have.
Un-mentioned, is that the 20/50 EMAs have crossed over or nearly so on all of the equity fund indices (CSI).
At the moment, I can't honestly decide if the SPY will hit 1,400 or 1,200 first - and that's not much conviction to go on.
I made, and canceled, an IFT at ~1,312 earlier this month - otherwise, I'd be choking on a negative 4% or more right now.
I wouldn't be surprised at a 2% move in I-fund, tomorrow, unfortunately, I'm not in it and I haven't much idea what will happen next week.
Getting old. and more nearsighted.
Especially on today's trade.....dip buying dominates....but volumes dropping (sellers waiting?).....jobs claims number was pretty much on target (tho not a good number); notable sideliners (JTH,Poolman) jumped in (see JTH's talk for the discussion) - as have most of the others in who have moved in the top 30. In fact, very few of the recent leader IFT's have been to safety.....but some have.
Un-mentioned, is that the 20/50 EMAs have crossed over or nearly so on all of the equity fund indices (CSI).
At the moment, I can't honestly decide if the SPY will hit 1,400 or 1,200 first - and that's not much conviction to go on.
I made, and canceled, an IFT at ~1,312 earlier this month - otherwise, I'd be choking on a negative 4% or more right now.
I wouldn't be surprised at a 2% move in I-fund, tomorrow, unfortunately, I'm not in it and I haven't much idea what will happen next week.
Getting old. and more nearsighted.
One Day Pony
well - I got the percentage right, and the direction wrong (it's negative) - I had a strong instinct the market would move up, not down, so nothing unfortunate about not following the leaders today.
Still - it's hard NOT to follow your own instinct - even if it has been poor recently (in this case, it was to go in - and I was wrong, again).
One day pony? or bouncing around a bottom? (at the least - today was NOT a confirmation). I would have liked to had seen a higher ^VIX, somewhere in the low 20's at least. Mixed signals abound - QE ending for sure, or is the FED not going to walk its talk? How will the dollar exchange rate behave? Was the last job report a break in the trend (towards more jobs, and lower claims), or outlying data? And - there are those technicals, which may break into the 100 and 200 EMA's.....
I don't have trader's block, but getting hesitant. Quite alot of activity in the IFT's (33 today)....while fridays used to be a sell with a monday bounce....there's been some sort of "hangover" pattern in this last downward trend.
Plus - there's a half a day of trading left - anything could happen.
well - I got the percentage right, and the direction wrong (it's negative) - I had a strong instinct the market would move up, not down, so nothing unfortunate about not following the leaders today.
Still - it's hard NOT to follow your own instinct - even if it has been poor recently (in this case, it was to go in - and I was wrong, again).
One day pony? or bouncing around a bottom? (at the least - today was NOT a confirmation). I would have liked to had seen a higher ^VIX, somewhere in the low 20's at least. Mixed signals abound - QE ending for sure, or is the FED not going to walk its talk? How will the dollar exchange rate behave? Was the last job report a break in the trend (towards more jobs, and lower claims), or outlying data? And - there are those technicals, which may break into the 100 and 200 EMA's.....
I don't have trader's block, but getting hesitant. Quite alot of activity in the IFT's (33 today)....while fridays used to be a sell with a monday bounce....there's been some sort of "hangover" pattern in this last downward trend.
Plus - there's a half a day of trading left - anything could happen.
chickened out today
Yup:
I got time, and I just can't pull the trigger. I know, I know, IF this is still a bull market, today would be prime - a collapse in the index prices just before the deadline.
Retail sales forecast for tomorrow not looking good. Ergo bock bock bock for me today, and judging by the current price at 5 minutes to noon, I'm not alone.
Yup:
I got time, and I just can't pull the trigger. I know, I know, IF this is still a bull market, today would be prime - a collapse in the index prices just before the deadline.
Retail sales forecast for tomorrow not looking good. Ergo bock bock bock for me today, and judging by the current price at 5 minutes to noon, I'm not alone.
surprise retail sales/inventories, modest market reaction = buy
There you have it:
Surprise numbers, and market reacts - modestly IMO - so I am in 80%. Follow through on job claims reduction may occur later this week. Hope for some sort of profit. I think this will last a few days.....this is semi-confirmation of the "soft-patch" theory. Too, it was nice to see the S-fund resist it's 200 EMA.
My risk-of-loss tolerances at this point are not high.
There you have it:
Surprise numbers, and market reacts - modestly IMO - so I am in 80%. Follow through on job claims reduction may occur later this week. Hope for some sort of profit. I think this will last a few days.....this is semi-confirmation of the "soft-patch" theory. Too, it was nice to see the S-fund resist it's 200 EMA.
My risk-of-loss tolerances at this point are not high.
bad timing - again
I did not see today coming:
I can't tell if it is overseas, housing/domestic, or deadcat falling, or what? Anyway - I expect heat for this move today.....as some would say "locking in" losses; but it isn't in full - just reducing from 80% to 55% in the market.
The last hour of trade before the IFT deadline was NOT comforting.
Again - I'm sitting on a fence - because the risk on/off daily trade of this market - with a short term average spiralling down, is making it hard to make money; yet - the selling is not at a volume/rate that would indicate capitulation, for me.
I am thinking now, instead of 1,400, the SPY will may end up down for the year (~1,200); earnings will be revised.
I did not see today coming:
I can't tell if it is overseas, housing/domestic, or deadcat falling, or what? Anyway - I expect heat for this move today.....as some would say "locking in" losses; but it isn't in full - just reducing from 80% to 55% in the market.
The last hour of trade before the IFT deadline was NOT comforting.
Again - I'm sitting on a fence - because the risk on/off daily trade of this market - with a short term average spiralling down, is making it hard to make money; yet - the selling is not at a volume/rate that would indicate capitulation, for me.
I am thinking now, instead of 1,400, the SPY will may end up down for the year (~1,200); earnings will be revised.
DANG IT!
I drink one cup of coffee a day, at most, and that's after the IFT deadline. The problem here is not coffee, it's inability to make heads or tails out of sentiment - - - actually - - - being just plain wrong. A high percentage of the time. And that with different strategies - - - none of which are working. I may need to back to what did work, back in the day when I was positive at this time of year......a few years ago; and live with my measly 2-4% a year and call it good.
This is not that.
I entered an IFT for tomorrow, reduced to 36% G and F; 28%S; hoping for an I fund bounce tomorrow.......
DANG IT!!!!
I drink one cup of coffee a day, at most, and that's after the IFT deadline. The problem here is not coffee, it's inability to make heads or tails out of sentiment - - - actually - - - being just plain wrong. A high percentage of the time. And that with different strategies - - - none of which are working. I may need to back to what did work, back in the day when I was positive at this time of year......a few years ago; and live with my measly 2-4% a year and call it good.
This is not that.
I entered an IFT for tomorrow, reduced to 36% G and F; 28%S; hoping for an I fund bounce tomorrow.......
DANG IT!!!!
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