amoeba's Account Talk

[vegasmith]

futures don't mean much period.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

The futures you are seeing on all the sites like CNN and Bloomberg are from Friday's close. They don't update them until Sunday evening. I think it's around 6-7pm ET.

 

[amoeba]

Yes, yes, yes:

I was talking about futures at friday's close; they do get updated Sunday evening; and most of the time mean nothing anyway........the exception is when they are very sharply down sunday evening they don't often reverse during the monday session.

I suppose I was just blathering........looking for a spark of light in an otherwise increasingly opaque crystal ball.

 

[amoeba]

By the way:

Birchtree made a great call a few months ago on either his thread or mine, when he said he wasn't going to bail until the ^VIX reached 16, which it did on almost the 20 EMA in early May, and then he didn't act on that either.

Maybe next time.

 

[Warrenlm]

You missed the typo. 1.6 not 16. Any VIX above 1.6 and he buys more dividend paying shares to generate income to be taxed at low rates. He's counting on the Dems and Obama seeing the light of keeping very favorable rates for qualified dividends. Maybe. Anything below 1.6 and he stops shopping and immediately buys his house in Cashiers. And doesn't sell shares.

 

[Birchtree]

Now that sounds just like my plan. Currently I have six lake houses on my list that I'm monitoring for further price softness. Dividend income provides a constant stream of income that bankers like to see in this real estate environment. I'll sell shares to pay for big ticket items like a new car or boat - otherwise in several years I'll do some selling to start paying back my margin - but as long as my wife is working I need the interest deduction to help offset her income.

 

[amoeba]

exit point?

Altho the market has proven otherwise recently:

Will light volume pressure the market upward toward the weekend? if so, I say an exit point in advance of the job numbers next week - which I believe will be miserable - due to this soft patch or whatever it is.

Why the SPR release - methinks $4 or $3.50 is no difference when you don't have a job and can't afford your mortgage. Empty roads out here in CA; how about you?

 

[amoeba]

turning gold into flax, or worse.......

Though my posts are bordering on irrelevance:

I managed to turn a potential 5% gain into a 1.8% loss; doing everything at exactly the wrong moment.

a) I bought into the market on what I thought was an upswing, only to see it break the 50 EMA and my loss tolerance in one day (-1.5%);

b) I exchanged that for F-fund; then failed to ditch that on it's high week before last (0.8% gain) only to lose more money thereafter, when it gave that back and more this last week (1% loss);

In the midst; I didn't see this snapback coming - even though JTH explicitly called it during the month (recapture of the 200 EMA on the SPY) and Birch called the gain amount pretty close as well.

I have no interpretation........the ^VIX was not at an extreme..........the economic numbers were barely positive - nothing I would call a surprise (ISM, sentiment) - and more key barometers (jobs, home prices) suggest the double dip is continuing......actually.....it IS a double dip.

The truth is - - - the market does what it does - - - and once again, I missed the best weekly gain in awhile (2 yrs)........

Some think I have a losing pattern.....but really, I have purposefully changed my strategy, several times, and none of those strategies work.

More changes are in order. Pretty darn disappointing. I hesitate making a prediction for this week - but I will - so for those of you who trade on my bad instincts - this is good news for you:

Missed jobs number and selling returns shortly thereafter.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: turning gold into flax, or worse.......

Friend you will not become irrelevant until sugarandspice says you are. You just simply need to think longer term the way the market discounts the future. Who knows what the market will do this coming week - but I'll be there ready to enjoy the consequences.

 

[wwwtractor]

No one can predict the market but we hope some of us can guess well and make a little money.

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

Your strategy is determinant on market timing surprises. My question is how can you predict a surprise with any level of consistency?

For example, the market is projecting some number of job losses. You expect a job loss number greater than expectation by enough to roil the market - so you put everything on the table for that projection. Then the number comes in (1) within range or the (2) smart money on Wall Street already discounted a greater number or we have (3) some monthly surge in employment. All three of those scenarios leaves you zero or negative - but does waste an IFT.

Only a number decisive enough to fool the smart money provides a positive return to your account.

then it whips back within a week as the market digests things and dip buyers reinvest.

Your 100% gamble blows up, a small correction; you bail and lose another IFT.

Your IFTs are the most expensive tool in your toolbox.

Here are a few thoughts:

I know you, like me, live in Kaleforea. This state sucks. The state gubmint is wiping out its wealth base. Very high unemployment. Good paying jobs, businesses and industry moving to greener pastures (like Arizona:nuts. Do not look at traffic congestion (or the lack thereof) here and figure that you have insight of the national economy. Kalefornea is now a national backwater. Staring at a gubmint induced catastrophe like farming bankruptcies in the Central Valley and projecting it nationally is like staring at North Korea and projecting that economy world wide.

Stop worrying about daily fluctuations. You only have two IFTs. Blowing them on 1% moves guarantees failure. The system is rigged against frequent traders. Your IFT count should be between one and two a month. And, if it is two you have better know what you are doing. SqualBears ‘<1%’ move technique is to repair mistakes. Only the first two IFTs are truly market movers. You have to have a higher pain threshold to invest in equities. Look at JTH, Poolman, and others who moved into equities a little early and ate the losses before growing fat on the gains. And, they used their IFTs in such a way as to have one rebalancing IFT in the pocket – which, honestly, Poolman used rather quickly.

Finally, backing out to Government Bonds filled with toxic mortgages? Yowser. That thing is waiting to dump.

 

[amoeba]

Well:

Some of the top returners last year are near me at the bottom this year; and some of the ones you mention at the top last year, were below me last year. I won't mention names.

Fact is - I have tried some of the "hold longer" strategy; and turned some gain into a loss. Sure - I coulda/woulda/shoulda held a smidge longer, but, once again - I hit a loss target (it was much higher then, about -5%) - and thar she blew. Then I reduced my loss tolerance, and missed a rebound . Anyway....I missed the target again. Would we be talking bad strategy if the market tanked further to 1,240 on the bad jobs number? I think not. But that's not what happened - so I'm wrong again (and again, and again).

I did see the jobs# miss coming; what I expected but didn't see, however, is the lack of any substantial market reaction.....and if you look deeper into the jobs #......it is even more concerning (small biz jobs, gov jobs). ...optimism prevails.

BTW - I've never used an IFT for a 1% move; that last one was using the free, 3rd IFT for rounding up <1% because I had contributions to other funds.

Let's see - - - predictions this time? My crystal ball is totally opaque today -- - - - I KNOW NOTHING, HERR COL. KLINK!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

G Fund Returns:

• 2008: 3.75
• 2009: 2.97
• 2010: 2.81
• 2011: 1.49

Amoeba's Returns:

• 2008: 1.58
• 2009: 2.64
• 2010: 0.46
• 2011: -5.26

Dude, if you just stick your money in the 'G Fund' you could have two Social Security checks when you retire. You would never lose money and you would probably keep up with inflation. And you could double your invested money in thirty years.

Dude Part II, I can guess who you are talking about and I do actually watch a couple/few of them. They have done well in the past - recent and more distant. One crappy year doesn't kill a retirement fund - years of crappy returns kill them.

Dude Part III, if you don't find a better trading strategy than predicting job losses and other such dire news (which is factored into market prices months before you make your move) than I will be funding your Alpo Meal Retirement Fund. And, being the GenXer than I am, I don't want to. The most recent dire news resulted in a dramatic single day 'C Fund' crash of -0.70%. Oh, the horrors. It might fall another half a point on Monday. Now the 'C Fund' is only +7.93 for the year. Oh, wait...

 

[jpcavin]

Amoeba...I mean this without any disrespect...
If your predictions suck your funds.....just follow the moves of those that know what they are doing. I know absolutely nothing about the markets. I tried to understand it but it was just too time consuming and too overwhelming. Now I have my sights on a few top performers on the autotracker and my only gamble is to predict which one of them has made the better move. Simple as that. Try it out.

 

[JTH]

I see you haven't used an IFT this month, don't let the withdraw kick in, this is a good time not to chase the downside.

 

[amoeba]

I see you haven't used an IFT this month, don't let the withdraw kick in, this is a good time not to chase the downside.

Not a chance - I am not about to chase this right now; neither are 15/top 30 on our forum's rankings who are 100% G/F; I'm just non-plussed about how the market has been holding up this high - with a big miss on jobs, high gasoline prices, all financials missing earnings and doing the titanic....there seems to be a huge amount of optimism.....I did not expect it, it's still there, and I haven't a clue what's next.

My prediction for the rest of this week is MINUS 3% MORE, by this FRIDAY.

Wake me up when SPY breaks 1,230 or so.

 

[amoeba]

Hey boghie:

Post again when you've figured out how many of this bulletin board members have outperformed the G-fund since 2000.

 

[Birchtree]

As a proponent of buy and hold, I don't experience your level of angst. You shouldn't be so prone to selling pressure. Our consolidations are becoming shallower. Come to the high quality companies found in the C fund and I fund. It's time for hope and investing change. Snort.

 

[JTH]

Not a chance - I am not about to chase this right now; neither are 15/top 30 on our forum's rankings who are 100% G/F; I'm just non-plussed about how the market has been holding up this high - with a big miss on jobs, high gasoline prices, all financials missing earnings and doing the titanic....there seems to be a huge amount of optimism.....I did not expect it, it's still there, and I haven't a clue what's next.

My prediction for the rest of this week is MINUS 3% MORE, by this FRIDAY.

Wake me up when SPY breaks 1,230 or so.

Honest engine, all those news stories don't mean a thing to me, I'm watching price, price, and more price. Please don't let your overly bearish outlook get the better of you, if you aren't prepared to switch sides quickly you could get left behind when the next rally begins. JMHO

 

[amoeba]

Honest engine, all those news stories don't mean a thing to me, I'm watching price, price, and more price. Please don't let your overly bearish outlook get the better of you, if you aren't prepared to switch sides quickly you could get left behind when the next rally begins. JMHO

True - my outlook doesn't matter - it's what the overall outlook of the market is, and what the index prices are; which switched from negative to positive in the face of missed economics.

As for switching.......I'm ready.......you first, tho.