amoeba's Account Talk

[Boghie]

Hey boghie:

Post again when you've figured out how many of this bulletin board members have outperformed the G-fund since 2000.

Yowser...

You do know that the TSP site only shows annual statements back to 2007 and quarterly statements since late 2003. I have been tracking my TSP in Quicken since 2004. And, getting the Internal Rate of Return is harder than getting the average return. You need to know your annual standard deviation (which Quicken computes).

I can kinda get numbers for me under the noted criteria, but for others...

Average Return since investing in TSP in January 1995: 13.36%
Internal Rate of Return since January 2004: 9.38%
Average Return since January 2004: 10.06%

The Internal Rate of Return is the monthy and annual performance documented on the TSP statements. It will always be lower than the Average Return. So, many of you chaps posting huge 12 month returns are actually doing better than you think!!!

Anyway, I've got some of my quarterly statements from 2000 - 2004. What a mess. I'm not going to do all that math for this.

I think most folks who DCA'd their way through the two recessions/depressions made bank. Right now my account is dramatically enhanced by the tons of $7 to $12 C Fund shares I purchased from 2008 through 2010. The same is true for 2000 through 2003. Those shares have become my best friends.

I'll give you this...
It is nice to miss the severe downturns. I missed a big chunk of the .Com crash and a big chunk of the Credit crash - but not all of it. Poolman did though. My guess is that he is raging.

But, you have to give me this. It is vastly important to catch the normal and boom markets. I don't see you doing that. Surfing a huge boom like this isn't hard. You just have to want to get on the board. Lets have some fun - and this recent political stupid attack gives you a nice entry point. There won't be any better unless you have some serious trading skills.

 

[Handballer]

Congrads on your no gain/loss yesterday. You were one or the best.:suspicious:

 

[amoeba]

odd times:

market is doing some kind of song and dance around 1,300; volumes OK; can't say I'm excited tho. 19/top 30 sitting on dry powder......we'll see.....

Another 1.5% down to go by friday to make my prediction earlier this week.....see about that to......not feelin froggy yet.

 

[amoeba]

Re-read my last post, and nothing notable to say, other than the sideways move continues (no further decline), on medium volumes. Indecisiveness rules.

 

[amoeba]

Today's Note:

Poor entry point, good time to sell, the market has (or is, on today's move) - I believe - priced in a debt ceiling solution; and will sell on that news on 8/2 or earlier, and if it doesn't happen, will sell even more. There will be no bounce on the news, so sucker I am not.

I believe the housing starts data are a fooler and wet weather related, and no more. On the other hand, the job claims may surprise (and probably will, eventually), so if anyone has a scoop on a big move either way of concensus (I mean, either 360K or less, or 450K or more), you could make a quick buck. I think right around 400K, possibly a smidge less - but nothing of importance.

 

[WorkFE]

Although I have not acted on it yet this month, the range of 1300 to 1340 seems to be significant. Of course it is both your IFTs. Depending on your current position you could capitalize on it twice for about a 2% gain. Bad news is you would be out to start the new month which depending on the debt ceiling news could be painful.

 

[amoeba]

Today's note:

Poor entry point today as well, johns54 (monthly return leader) I believe bailed to F, tho it's not showing on the recent IFT notes. JTH - who has been smart money this year - bought into S very recently (w/ SPY ~1,340) with a stated intention to book the any sort of profit; we shall see if the market as a whole feels the same (i.e., sells into the next bounce, if there is one).

Lower volume, slight decline, day. ^VIX somewhat higher, but not >20......so.......my read remains the same, as follows.

I personally put little import in the debt ceiling talk, as it will at least be kicked down the road; I still believe most of the traders are positioning for a solution, and will sell into any bounce before early Aug. I don't see a non-solution coming. I do see other factors moving to the headlines once this (debt ceiling) is decided. That could be foreign problems (Greece/Ireland) - or solutions, and domestic economics (confidence, employment, homes, etc.) that haven't looked good - so even the slightest good news could be profitable.

In sum, the market in the short term could go up, down, or sideways. Does that cover it?

 

[Scout333]

"In sum, the market in the short term could go up, down, or sideways. Does that cover it?"
Yep! That about does it. No matter which way you lean you take it in the shorts!:worried:

 

[amoeba]

today's note (7/26/11):

More of the same; 3rd consecutive daily decline, following flip-flops of the last 9 sessions; the last 2 trading days were low volume, and my take on this (low volume, slight selling) is BAD NEWS.

More often than not in a bull market - if this is one - we get bounces on those low volume days, and this is not that. The next large volume day will be - I believe - will be down BIG - probably on the order of 2-3% DOWN. It's not just the debt, I think that's priced in - it's the transition from news-based trading to economics - and the economics are not that good. Not bad, but not good. If there is a BIG down day, before the end of the month, it might be a chance for some of us with dry powder (IFT's) to take a chance. But not today - and there's no reason to throw good IFT's after bad markets. If there isn't money to be made, or the risk is high, why bother?

The last 20-30' of trading was off the lows in the major indices, however. And volatility, while up, is not at the extremes one would expect of lows. So perhaps this is a lull, not a reversal, in the market. So please give me an excuse to go back in. A nice 50 pt drop in the SPY, and a VIX north of 25, would be tempting.

 

[BigJohn]

today's note (7/26/11):

More of the same; 3rd consecutive daily decline, following flip-flops of the last 9 sessions; the last 2 trading days were low volume, and my take on this (low volume, slight selling) is BAD NEWS.

More often than not in a bull market - if this is one - we get bounces on those low volume days, and this is not that. The next large volume day will be - I believe - will be down BIG - probably on the order of 2-3% DOWN. It's not just the debt, I think that's priced in - it's the transition from news-based trading to economics - and the economics are not that good. Not bad, but not good. If there is a BIG down day, before the end of the month, it might be a chance for some of us with dry powder (IFT's) to take a chance. But not today - and there's no reason to throw good IFT's after bad markets. If there isn't money to be made, or the risk is high, why bother?

The last 20-30' of trading was off the lows in the major indices, however. And volatility, while up, is not at the extremes one would expect of lows. So perhaps this is a lull, not a reversal, in the market. So please give me an excuse to go back in. A nice 50 pt drop in the SPY, and a VIX north of 25, would be tempting.

Well said...I agree with you across the board.

 

[Birchtree]

I need an address to send my donation to the #773 amoeba club for restoration.

 

[amoeba]

Back to talking smack, are we?

I will not bite. I don't want any part of your negative 20% return over the last 5 years.

 

[Birchtree]

My sympathy level has been elevated - you are missing this secular mega trend bull market because of your fears. It should be time to get off the platform at the station. Buy the VIX at 22 and sell at 14 is a rule you could follow.

 

[BigJohn]

today's note (7/26/11):

More of the same; 3rd consecutive daily decline, following flip-flops of the last 9 sessions; the last 2 trading days were low volume, and my take on this (low volume, slight selling) is BAD NEWS.

More often than not in a bull market - if this is one - we get bounces on those low volume days, and this is not that. The next large volume day will be - I believe - will be down BIG - probably on the order of 2-3% DOWN. It's not just the debt, I think that's priced in - it's the transition from news-based trading to economics - and the economics are not that good. Not bad, but not good. If there is a BIG down day, before the end of the month, it might be a chance for some of us with dry powder (IFT's) to take a chance. But not today - and there's no reason to throw good IFT's after bad markets. If there isn't money to be made, or the risk is high, why bother?

The last 20-30' of trading was off the lows in the major indices, however. And volatility, while up, is not at the extremes one would expect of lows. So perhaps this is a lull, not a reversal, in the market. So please give me an excuse to go back in. A nice 50 pt drop in the SPY, and a VIX north of 25, would be tempting.

This is starting to look like the BIG down day you referenced yesterday...jumping in?

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX currently is 21.96 - this is a great buying opportunity. I wish I had more money.

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX now at 22.35 off 2.12 - the time is right!

 

[hotwings]

Re: amoeba's Account Talk - BT

BT,

Happy Birthday.... What would you be buying today?? Industrials, tech, financials, energy????

TIA

 

[JTH]

Re: amoeba's Account Talk - BT

BT,

Happy Birthday.... What would you be buying today?? Industrials, tech, financials, energy????

TIA

Happy birthday Birch Tree, you're only 64, still lot's of pep in the ol step! may you're gardens be tended to, but not too often...

 

[amoeba]

This is starting to look like the BIG down day you referenced yesterday...jumping in?

Not today, maybe tomorrow, maybe not. Y? <2% down, and <25 VIX is too mild of a reaction, unless the expected bad GDP surprises; and I don't know that it will or won't. Money COULD be made (or LOST) for those with IFT's (of those almost exactly half are pre-positioning for continued drop friday on the recent IFT's by going INTO equities - and a like number that are bailing to G/F).

Interestingly; ranks 20-50 on our tracker are 70% (22/30) in G-F funds; that's a very high proportion and likely to increase after today.

There WILL be a debt deal.....absolutely must happen.....and that is priced in - - - I have a hard time believing that there is anything but the slightest anxiety over it. This drop has to do with something else.....not sure what.

There may be positioning, in advance of that debt deal - and selling onto it.....that's been my take on what is propping up this market. What happens afterward......hard to say.

I'm doing wilderness field work mon-thurs- - - no communications other than emergency locator beacon.

 

[sdouglas3]

Big boy's trying to spread fear and buy shares cheaper. They are buying as the retail crowd sells. Classic case of Wallstreet doing what they do.