amoeba's Account Talk

[sdouglas3]

I bought today because my Branch Chief and others in the office sold today. They zig and I zag. Something like that!

 

[amoeba]

Note of today (7/28/11, 3 am edt):

No, I'm not watching the market, I'm pulling a marathon session on something for work....but aside from that, I have to think clearly, and a double rockstar helps. I have 2 IFT's and 2 more next month. I could pull the average-in thing, and catch a few knives.

OR - I could sacrafice and wait for the GDP on friday

As for the market - tomorrow unfortunately is yet another near - certain down day - but perhaps just a pause; remember - this isn't by any means "oversold" considering the news and the economy. The market sold off to lower levels due to people throwing shoes at each other in Egypt earlier this year.

Amidst the gloss of debt news, I'm seeing mixed earnings underneath for the next 2 qtrs.

picking an entry is tough here - the last two dips I bought in too early, sold too early, and don't wanna do it a third time. The water torture declines of the last couple cycles (many days, instead of a cliff-drop; isn't making it easy). 300 million SPYs, and 1,275 or thereabouts tomorrow, would make me much more comfortable. But alas, having said that - the market will probably be 140 million, and be fractionally dead.

 

[amoeba]

Yup: pretty close - 170 million SPY/fractionally down = a whole lot of question marks.

early buying, late selling, diminimus change, and average volume in most indices. Analysis: none. no idea. nothing. totally grasping at straws. Still very surprised that 1,300 is holding. Suggests bullish sentiment and brush off of debt issue. Yeah, the claims data were better, but it's just one week out of the last 14 under 400K, so I'm not into buying on that. Continuing claims were right on the number.

Now, with the stability under news pressure; does this mean that the "good" news (on the debt) will be sold as I predicted 1-2 weeks ago?

Remains to be seen.

 

[amoeba]

Not today, maybe tomorrow, maybe not. Y? <2% down, and <25 VIX is too mild of a reaction, unless the expected bad GDP surprises; and I don't know that it will or won't. Money COULD be made (or LOST) for those with IFT's (of those almost exactly half are pre-positioning for continued drop friday on the recent IFT's by going INTO equities - and a like number that are bailing to G/F).

Interestingly; ranks 20-50 on our tracker are 70% (22/30) in G-F funds; that's a very high proportion and likely to increase after today.

There WILL be a debt deal.....absolutely must happen.....and that is priced in - - - I have a hard time believing that there is anything but the slightest anxiety over it. This drop has to do with something else.....not sure what.

There may be positioning, in advance of that debt deal - and selling onto it.....that's been my take on what is propping up this market. What happens afterward......hard to say.
.

My crystal ball is getting temporarily clearer, not sure why. Bailed on my minority F-fund; and upped my allocation in S/I to 4%; that way, birch can't say I'm not putting skin in the game. Now why would I want skin in this game?

This has all the workings of no deal by 8/2, there is a 50:50 chance that there might be a few days of can-kicking, and a 50:50 chance of utter chaos (default, bond prices fall thru floor in one day; no social security payments, a bunch of other things). Otherwise nobody has the votes - and there are pretty bad ideas on both sides - and (as Barney says) no military cuts, which neither side has the gutz to propose.

Yeah, as far as what this decline is about; the GDP was shockingly light; and still - what happened? fractional loss? that's still pretty bullish. The big drop, if there is one, is still to come.

 

[nnuut]

SSN, Medicare, VETs, Food stamps, Military will all get paid no matter what happens. PROPAGANDA is the word, don't believe it! Scare the old, poor and disabled folks, threaten to not pay the military. Dirty tricks in my book. Would you vote for someone that would use that to justify a Political Agenda, NOT ME?

 

[amoeba]

Cut military spending. Get out of the middle east.

 

[Boghie]

SSN, Medicare, VETs, Food stamps, Military will all get paid no matter what happens. PROPAGANDA is the word, don't believe it! Scare the old, poor and disabled folks, threaten to not pay the military. Dirty tricks in my book. Would you vote for someone that would use that to justify a Political Agenda, NOT ME?

Actually, after our debt payment and Social Security everything is on the table. I don't think Medicare has been securitized, but maybe.

After at most these three obligations the President can fund what he finds most important.

Therein lies the rub, eh.

 

[Boghie]

Cut military spending. Get out of the middle east.

The war spending is about 1/15th (7%) of our annual deficit. The DOD should be cut to normalized spending patterns soon. So, maybe a reduction of another 5% of our annual deficit. Brings a savings of 12% of our deficit.

Kinda leaves about 88% of our deficit spending in place.

Where to get that.

Well, the EPA porked up 130% since 2009.
Department of Agriculture put on tremenous weight.
How bout that Housing and Urban Development trough hound.

This Obama goober even presented a slanted graph dumping all military war costs on 'W' (even though we are still involved), dumped the entire TARP fiasco on 'W' (even though Obama bailed out GM and Chrysler), and even a huge chunk of the Stimulus spending. However, he was dumb enough to present the fact that his 'non-defense discressionary spending' has increased by $278 Billion over two years.

In the teeth of what many call a depression, President Obama has increased 'non-defense discressionary spending' by $278 Billion - in TWO years. The same graph has 'W' increasing such spending by $608 Billion over eight years. President Obama is on a glide path to increasing 'non-defense discressionary spending' by $1,112 Billion over eight years. At a time when he has grown the deficit by more than 'W' already.

We have to slash the 'non-defense discressionary spending'. Probably cut into 'W's bloat as well. We have to tighten our belts meaningfully. Then we must look at entitlements. If we don't act soon we will have to look at cutting existing entitlement benefits. Delaying is dangerous.

 

[nnuut]

Actually, after our debt payment and Social Security everything is on the table. I don't think Medicare has been securitized, but maybe.

After at most these three obligations the President can fund what he finds most important.

Therein lies the rub, eh.

The "rub" is that Obamie is too much of a politician to NOT pay these people first, no matter what a vote is a vote.

 

[amoeba]

My crystal ball is getting temporarily clearer, not sure why. Bailed on my minority F-fund; and upped my allocation in S/I to 4%; that way, birch can't say I'm not putting skin in the game. Now why would I want skin in this game?

This has all the workings of no deal by 8/2, there is a 50:50 chance that there might be a few days of can-kicking, and a 50:50 chance of utter chaos (default, bond prices fall thru floor in one day; no social security payments, a bunch of other things). Otherwise nobody has the votes - and there are pretty bad ideas on both sides - and (as Barney says) no military cuts, which neither side has the gutz to propose.

Yeah, as far as what this decline is about; the GDP was shockingly light; and still - what happened? fractional loss? that's still pretty bullish. The big drop, if there is one, is still to come.

Told ya so. (above on 7/30/11).

 

[amoeba]

Not today, maybe tomorrow, maybe not. Y? <2% down, and <25 VIX is too mild of a reaction, unless the expected bad GDP surprises; and I don't know that it will or won't. Money COULD be made (or LOST) for those with IFT's (of those almost exactly half are pre-positioning for continued drop friday on the recent IFT's by going INTO equities - and a like number that are bailing to G/F).

Interestingly; ranks 20-50 on our tracker are 70% (22/30) in G-F funds; that's a very high proportion and likely to increase after today.

There WILL be a debt deal.....absolutely must happen.....and that is priced in - - - I have a hard time believing that there is anything but the slightest anxiety over it. This drop has to do with something else.....not sure what.

There may be positioning, in advance of that debt deal - and selling onto it.....that's been my take on what is propping up this market. What happens afterward......hard to say.

I'm doing wilderness field work mon-thurs- - - no communications other than emergency locator beacon.

All you suckers who took a knife take note....told ya so X 2.

 

[JamesE]

Don't get too proud yourself there Mr. 700 club. Things will turn and you'll be back to crying in no time.

 

[MaStA]

Don't get too proud yourself there Mr. 700 club. Things will turn and you'll be back to crying in no time.

:laugh: I was thinking something along the same lines, but didn't say anything. Amoeba, I wouldn't be bragging when you are still in the negative on the autotracker. I am negative as well, but I'm not calling anyone suckers.

 

[JTH]

Re: amoeba's Account Talk - BT

Gee don't let that humility get to ya, should I drag up all the other times you got it wrong? Don't think I can find such an occasion, all I'd have to do is post your IFT's and match them up with the charts, then who'd be the sucker? Anyways congrats you and a broken clock finally have something in common...

 

[amoeba]

Re: amoeba's Account Talk - BT

Gee don't let that humility get to ya, should I drag up all the other times you got it wrong? Don't think I can find such an occasion, all I'd have to do is post your IFT's and match them up with the charts, then who'd be the sucker? Anyways congrats you and a broken clock finally have something in common...

Not necessary - I lost too.....I actually traded against my instincts here, and doubled down on S and I fund (from 2 to 4%), upon which I dispensed with another 0.3% and change.

I'm still astonished by those who hang onto S/I/C (sick?) funds anyway. With the Fed/gov having run out of the bag of stimuli/QE/clunker/etc. tricks, I have no idea where the bottom will be, and what will happen after it is reached. I feel at least another 3-5% loss through the end of this week....not sure after that.....it will depend on economic data, I suspect; could be a very big snap-back (and I mean 5%+)

Or not. A whole bunch of traderes are stomping on this dead cat.

 

[JTH]

Re: amoeba's Account Talk - BT

From the vibes I'm getting from co-workers, everyone wants to buy but no one wants to be first...

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

You plan on using either of those IFTs?

Or, are you going to be satisfied with a guaranteed -5% for the year?

 

[amoeba]

Amoeba,

You plan on using either of those IFTs?

Or, are you going to be satisfied with a guaranteed -5% for the year?

I'm going to use them both; used one today (6%S, 49%F,45%G); watching things closely tho......

What about you? (or are you satisfied with a guaranteed -6.47%, subject to change, for the year)

 

[KevinD]

Howdy neighbor. Welcome to the mid-to-low 300's...

 

[MaStA]

lol