jkenjohnson
Active member
Re: now what?
Looks like yesterdays gains will probably get erased today.
Looks like yesterdays gains will probably get erased today.
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amoeba's Account Talk
- Thread starter amoeba
- Start date
nnuut
Moderator | TSP Legend
Re: now what?
Check Market Futures, Europe is looking good it may not be so bad at open. Durable Goods UP!
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/
Check Market Futures, Europe is looking good it may not be so bad at open. Durable Goods UP!
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/
jkenjohnson
Active member
Re: now what?
Thanks. I looked earlier and it looked bad. I am thinking I will get out before Friday, but I was hoping to recoup some losses first.
Thanks. I looked earlier and it looked bad. I am thinking I will get out before Friday, but I was hoping to recoup some losses first.
Yes,
The durables surprised both the revision and current, but it isn't that much to crow about; more to come later this week. Still, I do not call this a bear market, yet.....it has to go on longer to tell.....see if the 20/50 ema's are challenged, emotional barriers like 1,200 and such, and even if they are - - - for how long.
Mr. Shekels is on quite the run......check his performance/IFT's this whole year; esp. note the turnaround compared to last.
I'll lick my wounds till sept at least, and probably mid-sept at the earliest. Friday will be more interesting, I think.
The durables surprised both the revision and current, but it isn't that much to crow about; more to come later this week. Still, I do not call this a bear market, yet.....it has to go on longer to tell.....see if the 20/50 ema's are challenged, emotional barriers like 1,200 and such, and even if they are - - - for how long.
Mr. Shekels is on quite the run......check his performance/IFT's this whole year; esp. note the turnaround compared to last.
I'll lick my wounds till sept at least, and probably mid-sept at the earliest. Friday will be more interesting, I think.
jpcavin
Well-known member
Mr Shekels is afraid to lose the #1 spot on a market downturn.
FAB1
Well-known member
shekels....Aint that Jewish for "money" ?? - OY VEY!
8/22/11 warning looks on target - see the latest job claims - numbers don't lie
Ugh:
417K and last wk's revised up to 412K; BB ain't gonna talk the market out of a friday sell-off (depending on 2nd est GDP coming in light, as I expect)
I want some more shekels myself; but will wait until he (Mr. Shekels) jumps first, and in no case before mid-sept. at the earliest.
There seem to be fewer and fewer ostriches in the IFT's; the majority are bailing on the bounces.
Ugh:
417K and last wk's revised up to 412K; BB ain't gonna talk the market out of a friday sell-off (depending on 2nd est GDP coming in light, as I expect)
I want some more shekels myself; but will wait until he (Mr. Shekels) jumps first, and in no case before mid-sept. at the earliest.
There seem to be fewer and fewer ostriches in the IFT's; the majority are bailing on the bounces.
8/22/11 warning on target for economics, but not market movement
OK fine:
I predicted lame numbers, they came up lame (or worse); and what happens?
Buying....and in some volume.....Why?
I have not much on that reaction and....., accordingly....no idea anymore what will happen for the rest of this month.
I didn't personally listen to BB, but the bottom line was there is no QE3.....and nothing new that hadn't been said before.
Which was why the market sold off.....and so now it gets bought? Beats me.
Anyway - - - -all our funds are in a trading range and no hint of which is going to break out in what direction.
OK fine:
I predicted lame numbers, they came up lame (or worse); and what happens?
Buying....and in some volume.....Why?
I have not much on that reaction and....., accordingly....no idea anymore what will happen for the rest of this month.
I didn't personally listen to BB, but the bottom line was there is no QE3.....and nothing new that hadn't been said before.
Which was why the market sold off.....and so now it gets bought? Beats me.
Anyway - - - -all our funds are in a trading range and no hint of which is going to break out in what direction.
something brewing - who's gonna pay for this latest (jobs program pending)?
Fine:
BO gets on the tube and says he will start some jobs program and this becomes all good and warm and fuzzy all over and people buy stocks. OK - some of them do - and volumes are intermediate (both up and - today, down) and this is a hard one to pick with levels above the middle of the trading range and near the 50 EMAs.
Oh - will this jobs program cost money? If so, who is gonna pay for it? Taxes, other government cuts (how about military)? or what?
I do not still have any idea where this (market) is going. 1,200 on lip service by BB and BO? there's a whole lot of optimism out there that this correction, or whatever you want to call it, is over - and - yet, the worse in terms of economic data is pending (this wk's jobs report). Could be a big day - although it often goes contrarian (buying on tepid jobs data). No IFTs planned for me. Alot of the tracker members, more than half, are still in the red; and I've noticed a fair number of bailing IFT's on this retracement.
Fine:
BO gets on the tube and says he will start some jobs program and this becomes all good and warm and fuzzy all over and people buy stocks. OK - some of them do - and volumes are intermediate (both up and - today, down) and this is a hard one to pick with levels above the middle of the trading range and near the 50 EMAs.
Oh - will this jobs program cost money? If so, who is gonna pay for it? Taxes, other government cuts (how about military)? or what?
I do not still have any idea where this (market) is going. 1,200 on lip service by BB and BO? there's a whole lot of optimism out there that this correction, or whatever you want to call it, is over - and - yet, the worse in terms of economic data is pending (this wk's jobs report). Could be a big day - although it often goes contrarian (buying on tepid jobs data). No IFTs planned for me. Alot of the tracker members, more than half, are still in the red; and I've noticed a fair number of bailing IFT's on this retracement.
Handballer
Active member
Re: something brewing - who's gonna pay for this latest (jobs program pending)?
Are you talking to me? Are you taking to me?? All of my IFTs this year have been fine but my timing has been lousy. If I can get these to line up, I may finish the year with a gain.
Are you talking to me? Are you taking to me?? All of my IFTs this year have been fine but my timing has been lousy. If I can get these to line up, I may finish the year with a gain.
Re: something brewing - who's gonna pay for this latest (jobs program pending)?
Right now I hope to finish the year with the same numbers I started the year with.:worried:
Are you talking to me? Are you taking to me?? All of my IFTs this year have been fine but my timing has been lousy. If I can get these to line up, I may finish the year with a gain.
Right now I hope to finish the year with the same numbers I started the year with.:worried:
under-reaction points to huge gap down next tuesday when volume returns
Wow:
I can't remember such a bad set of job numbers (current and revision to last). And what does the market do?
A measly 2.5% down?
While some people might see this as a sell-off, I don't; volume is extremely light, the reaction very much muted, and this points to a large gap down after the holiday.
And then BO speaks, again, I believe Thursday (Whip Dee Do); about his jobs program - which of course will either do nothing since it can't cost anything, or will do something at the expense of something else which will be cut.
Responses since my last post, and the recent IFT's, point to bailing on anything that retraced 50%; and that will be less after today.
Wow:
I can't remember such a bad set of job numbers (current and revision to last). And what does the market do?
A measly 2.5% down?
While some people might see this as a sell-off, I don't; volume is extremely light, the reaction very much muted, and this points to a large gap down after the holiday.
And then BO speaks, again, I believe Thursday (Whip Dee Do); about his jobs program - which of course will either do nothing since it can't cost anything, or will do something at the expense of something else which will be cut.
Responses since my last post, and the recent IFT's, point to bailing on anything that retraced 50%; and that will be less after today.
polarbear
Member
Re: under-reaction points to huge gap down next tuesday when volume returns
I hope you are right. I would not call this muted, just not astronomical, not cataclysmic, so in your manner of thinking not proportionate. OK, I agree. Frankly, it is hard for me to imagine the mkt reacting positively to ANYTHING that Obama says. The public may have its varied opinions, but the market is about business, not fingerpainting, and does not suffer foolishness gladly. Think about it.
Thinking back to the good ole days of those cataclysmic drops when I was on the receiving end of most of them, since I changed sides if I may wax symbolic for a minute: "I'm hungry for the good times, baby, with a real fine girl like you-u-u-u." More of that would dispel some of this boredom.
I hope you are right. I would not call this muted, just not astronomical, not cataclysmic, so in your manner of thinking not proportionate. OK, I agree. Frankly, it is hard for me to imagine the mkt reacting positively to ANYTHING that Obama says. The public may have its varied opinions, but the market is about business, not fingerpainting, and does not suffer foolishness gladly. Think about it.
Thinking back to the good ole days of those cataclysmic drops when I was on the receiving end of most of them, since I changed sides if I may wax symbolic for a minute: "I'm hungry for the good times, baby, with a real fine girl like you-u-u-u." More of that would dispel some of this boredom.
Birchtree
Well-known member
Re: under-reaction points to huge gap down next tuesday when volume returns
They could suggest reducing tax on any dividends that are reinvested for a year or two - that happened in 1979 to help out the utility industry and yes I was there. Eliminating the 15% capital gain tax for two years would bring money into the economy. And the Fed deciding to buy stocks would help companies in several ways build that business confidence to start expansion projects that lead to jobs.
They could suggest reducing tax on any dividends that are reinvested for a year or two - that happened in 1979 to help out the utility industry and yes I was there. Eliminating the 15% capital gain tax for two years would bring money into the economy. And the Fed deciding to buy stocks would help companies in several ways build that business confidence to start expansion projects that lead to jobs.
Re: under-reaction points to huge gap down next tuesday when volume returns
Eliminate the cap gains tax and do what? call it regular income? (0-38%).....or, are you saying NO cap gains tax? how about no tax for Federal workers. How about no taxes for anybody? Taxes are the only money that for sure goes back into the economy.....eliminating or reducing cap gains tax completely won't go into the economy....anyone who is making money in the stock market....makes so much they don't spend it.
No matter, buy and holders like you don't pay taxes on their losses.
Eliminate the cap gains tax and do what? call it regular income? (0-38%).....or, are you saying NO cap gains tax? how about no tax for Federal workers. How about no taxes for anybody? Taxes are the only money that for sure goes back into the economy.....eliminating or reducing cap gains tax completely won't go into the economy....anyone who is making money in the stock market....makes so much they don't spend it.
No matter, buy and holders like you don't pay taxes on their losses.
government stimulus is getting old - market at some point won't be fooled anymore
447 billion make work job bill; tax the rich to pay for it:
It won't pass, BO. Pity the fool. Well-spoken, seems like a nice guy, just doesn't have the experience/ability, or staff, to make sound decisions on major economic problems.
Alot of it is not coming up with new ideas, and alot of it is crisis-management. Some of it, perhaps most, is external to the USA anyways.
Problem with ideas that don't work, or if they do only until the money runs out, is that they are bad ideas to begin with.
Haven't had to put up with any ranking smack from BT. But on BT's idea of eliminating cap gains, ya think anybody has them? And, ya think, if they do, they'll just unload them into this market, thereby increasing price pressure on stocks? I sure would for an extra 15%. Keep those ideas coming, BT. May I have another?
447 billion make work job bill; tax the rich to pay for it:
It won't pass, BO. Pity the fool. Well-spoken, seems like a nice guy, just doesn't have the experience/ability, or staff, to make sound decisions on major economic problems.
Alot of it is not coming up with new ideas, and alot of it is crisis-management. Some of it, perhaps most, is external to the USA anyways.
Problem with ideas that don't work, or if they do only until the money runs out, is that they are bad ideas to begin with.
Haven't had to put up with any ranking smack from BT. But on BT's idea of eliminating cap gains, ya think anybody has them? And, ya think, if they do, they'll just unload them into this market, thereby increasing price pressure on stocks? I sure would for an extra 15%. Keep those ideas coming, BT. May I have another?
another miss on job claims
claims came in high, yet the traders are buying on european rumors and some belief in Geithner perhaps (me not being among them, Greece WILL default); that focus will intensify next week as 9/21 approaches, as well as due to no major economic numbers.
Kudos to JTH and others who rode this last upward wave; I actually came back from 9 day wilderness trip on 9/12 and saw that coming but thought it would test the 1,126 lows but it did not.
Anyway, European focus will pass and then what? No - I don't even have a guess, so tell me. I think if we do breach 1,125 or even 1,100; there could be more sideline money coming in - and a 1,250 reaction could be possible.
Not saying it will happen.....but it might.
claims came in high, yet the traders are buying on european rumors and some belief in Geithner perhaps (me not being among them, Greece WILL default); that focus will intensify next week as 9/21 approaches, as well as due to no major economic numbers.
Kudos to JTH and others who rode this last upward wave; I actually came back from 9 day wilderness trip on 9/12 and saw that coming but thought it would test the 1,126 lows but it did not.
Anyway, European focus will pass and then what? No - I don't even have a guess, so tell me. I think if we do breach 1,125 or even 1,100; there could be more sideline money coming in - and a 1,250 reaction could be possible.
Not saying it will happen.....but it might.
Boghie
Well-known member
Amoeba,
Two things are probably happening...
The only problem is that we are sitting mid-September. September and October are notorious bad months for equities investing. However, we have already had a correction - and, gubmint bonds are in an obvious bubble. Ride the bubble or risk September/October investing, that is the question.
Just thoughts.
Not everybody plays two day trades.
And we cannot even play a trade once a week.
Two things are probably happening...
- Investment houses are probably buying equities slowly. They want to invest after a 16% - 20% correction. That is, buying the dip. Bad news is not affecting the market, thus da'Boyz have a positive sentiment.
- Long term investors and retirement account managers are looking six to nine months out. It is becoming a common belief that President Obama is on the ropes. They are discounting a Reagan Revolution.
The only problem is that we are sitting mid-September. September and October are notorious bad months for equities investing. However, we have already had a correction - and, gubmint bonds are in an obvious bubble. Ride the bubble or risk September/October investing, that is the question.
Just thoughts.
Not everybody plays two day trades.
And we cannot even play a trade once a week.
Handballer
Active member
Re: something brewing - who's gonna pay for this latest (jobs program pending)?
We might have a chance. I'm not taking that chance cause tommorow I'm on my way to Vegas to accept my fortune.
We might have a chance. I'm not taking that chance cause tommorow I'm on my way to Vegas to accept my fortune.
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