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what was that all about in the last hour today (10/4)???!!!

A 4% swing in less than an hour and nobody has a clear explanation?

That with 458 million SPY shares exchanged? Beets me. News driven perhaps? So what's new? EU banks claiming this's and that's. But this was more than noise but not a sure thing.......there were 4 such days back in early august before the market turned then, some as high as 600 million or more SPYs.

One day does not a bottom make.

Here on our autotracker - there are few believers; 3/top 30 have anything other than G/F, the lowest reading I can remember since ~2009 (but will change today). And no pile of early IFT's either.

I say: market to be sold into with a vengeance by the end of this week.
 
Amoeba,

Don't tell anyone, but I just helped someone at work make his first IFT yesterday morning. He moved to:
  • C: 60%
  • S: 20%
  • I: 20%
After I talked to him he kinda worked his allocation out for himself. He's young.

But, not the percentages.

I think HE moved the market:p
 
Re: what was that all about in the last hour today (10/4)???!!!

amoeba said:
A 4% swing in less than an hour and nobody has a clear explanation?

That with 458 million SPY shares exchanged? Beets me. News driven perhaps? So what's new? EU banks claiming this's and that's. But this was more than noise but not a sure thing.......there were 4 such days back in early august before the market turned then, some as high as 600 million or more SPYs.

One day does not a bottom make.

Here on our autotracker - there are few believers; 3/top 30 have anything other than G/F, the lowest reading I can remember since ~2009 (but will change today). And no pile of early IFT's either.

I say: market to be sold into with a vengeance by the end of this week.
Click to expand...

Holy crap, anyone ever told you don't look a gift horse in the mouth?

If you and Bquat ever agree on a set of market circumstances you feel really positive about could you please let me know beforehand so I can place my bets on 'never in a frickin eternity'?

I used to fish. And we would take this buyer for the restaurants out with us, actually he demanded to go. It never mattered how beautiful or firm the catch, there was always something wrong with it. Hispanic dude, we called him Negativo. But they weren't his until he paid and they hit the dock. The negotiations per pound would get comical sometimes, waving arms and arguing and all. Sometimes one of us would have to grab a big one and just toss it over the rail, and smile, and reach for another one. Closest he ever came to getting wet. We all made money on the deal.

Aahh, good times. Anyone got a light? Get on board boys.
 
Re: what was that all about in the last hour today (10/4)???!!!

burrocrat said:
Holy crap, anyone ever told you don't look a gift horse in the mouth?

If you and Bquat ever agree on a set of market circumstances you feel really positive about could you please let me know beforehand so I can place my bets on 'never in a frickin eternity'?

I used to fish. And we would take this buyer for the restaurants out with us, actually he demanded to go. It never mattered how beautiful or firm the catch, there was always something wrong with it. Hispanic dude, we called him Negativo. But they weren't his until he paid and they hit the dock. The negotiations per pound would get comical sometimes, waving arms and arguing and all. Sometimes one of us would have to grab a big one and just toss it over the rail, and smile, and reach for another one. Closest he ever came to getting wet. We all made money on the deal.

Aahh, good times. Anyone got a light? Get on board boys.
Click to expand...

To mention me makes me feel great.:) I'm kind of negative because I'm in the protection mode. I have no money going in and taking 5% out. I have mention I have a negative bias. It is my down fall against gains but it has saved me a lot because I'm in the top 100 on the tracker buy missing losses. I would love to be there by good gains but I miss a lot of small gain oppertunities by being too conservative.:(
 
Re: what was that all about in the last hour today (10/4)???!!!

burrocrat said:
The only promises you're likely to remember are the broken ones. Careful what you ask for.

Them must be some tough boots you got there what hold up to all that shakin.
Click to expand...
lol, no shakin', just being prepared. Until a big rally to take us beyond our current trading channel, or a big fall to 950-985, I am still in wait and see mode...
 
Re: what was that all about in the last hour today (10/4)???!!!

went 100% S Monday and moved to 100% F today b4 noon. Made the move after seeing the market down on Monday intraday b4 noon and the 250 point drop Friday. Got lucky 6% plus in a few days. Now in the F fund with no more moves other than to the G fund for the rest of the month. These 2 fit limit six'
 
Re: what was that all about in the last hour today (10/4)???!!!

Robo5555 said:
went 100% S Monday and moved to 100% F today b4 noon. Made the move after seeing the market down on Monday intraday b4 noon and the 250 point drop Friday. Got lucky 6% plus in a few days. Now in the F fund with no more moves other than to the G fund for the rest of the month. These 2 fit limit six'
Click to expand...
AWESOME move, wow... Just a little jealous... ok, so maybe a lot !!

Congrats !!
 
Re: what was that all about in the last hour today (10/4)???!!!

thanks...wish we had more than two ift,s. Don't we all! I believe the low levels will be tested in the very short term again followed by another rally.
 
Re: what was that all about in the last hour today (10/4)???!!!

Amoeba,

October's been very good. Caught 60% of it:)

Glad I didn't try to guess/time the market.

Would have gone Full Retard:p
 
schizo friday market reaction - and win back and bailers

I've been busy, 4-IFT'd an average in including the peak on 10/28, dumbest move ever, but only down .5% from then. I am very surprised by this past friday (11/4), compared to the prior one (10/28). I thought jobs # was not so bad, the news from Greece better than earlier in the week, and the market corrects down?

Huh?

Anyhow, I am holding at a little more than half in, hoping to get my 1/2% loss back, and maybe a little more (say.....down to a year-to-date loss of 5.5%?).

That can't be asking too much. Besides that - I'm not seeing much of a pattern in the top rankings on our autotracker other than this: most of the top 60 are in G/F - this has been the result of the win back and bail strategy - meaning that the market timers are prevailing over the buy-and-holders by a large margin.

I'm just not one of them.
 
report from the desk of the "full retard"

I turned a 1/4% gain into a ~3/4% loss this month; and that with pretty darn good timing; it could have been MUCH worse; the opportunities were essentially nil, there were all sorts of world-wide credit issues, potential resolutions, anticipations that were wrong, knee-jerks, and so forth, that I don't believe anyone could predict, or can predict in the future.

Boghie recently talked about going "full retard" with respect to timing. Yeah, I admit it, that's me this past month - and all's I can say is it could have been worse if I hadn't done it. But a loss is a loss and is nothing to brag about.

Actually, the TSP tracker kinda missed at least more IFT's I did (it says 8 this month) for reason's unbeknownst, so my losses aren't really 7%, it's more like 6.5% or so. And I'm not done for the month either. Watch out FuturesTrader, I WILL take your lead in IFT's, soon.

out.
 
Re: report from the desk of the "full retard"

Amoeba,

I'm ridin' it up.
I'm ridin' it down.
Been goin' Full Retard.
Every move has been wrong.

R/S,
Simple JacK
Tropic Thunder!!!
 
if he had another IFT - here's what the "full retard" would do.....

Well:

As if nobody else noticed; the bond auction in Italy was a colossal failure; fear is spreading beyond to the credit of stronger countries (including France, Germany, and even Asia); so equities are not the place to be for the retard.

From one retard to another, if had another IFT, I would skee-daddle to F-fund like no tomorrow. At least 50%.

Our monthly returns leader, Afishegg, who intially did well in the first quarter before getting creamed later on did just that; and seems to have found his MoJo and is now approaching 10% for the year. So perhaps that's encouragement to the fallen (I won't mention names, since we know who we are).
 
Re: if he had another IFT - here's what the "full retard" would do.....

Amoeba,

My problem is that the 'F Fund' is almost a Sovereign Debt Fund. There is an awful lot of Federal debt in there. And, I think it is the consensus here as well as elsewhere, Federal debt instruments are in a bubble.

That is the problem. The 'G Fund' has bank account returns - which means you will be fighting the dogs for your Alpo. The 'F Fund' is largely a U.S. Sovereign debt fund - and is quite bubbly. Where can you go in the limited choices available.

I am not you. I have a much higher pain threshold. If I were you I would balance it between G and C. Then watch. I think the 'Full Retard' move may be the 'F Fund'.
 
homing in on 0.5%!!!

As y'all top 100 or so are frothing in 10%+ returns:

I walllow in the squalor of a 0.5% return, and that mostly in the last 5 biz days. Market volume (and selling), dropped late november 2011 like everything in the world became perfect overnight and nobody is looking back.

We shall see.
 
Re: homing in on 0.5%!!!

amoeba said:
As y'all top 100 or so are frothing in 10%+ returns:

I walllow in the squalor of a 0.5% return, and that mostly in the last 5 biz days. Market volume (and selling), dropped late november 2011 like everything in the world became perfect overnight and nobody is looking back.

We shall see.
Click to expand...


amoeba, The year is still young and there should be plenty of opportunities ahead. Good luck.
 
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