amoeba's Account Talk

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Re: homing in on 0.5%!!!

I am a long term investor and I don't suffer from myopic loss aversion. It's time to buy more BAC.
 
why?

Birchtree said:
I am a long term investor and I don't suffer from myopic loss aversion. It's time to buy more BAC.
Click to expand...

Why? You think our toking POTUS is going to let fly with a "home loan terms for clunkers (the ones that don't pay their original loan terms)" program?

I know he'd like to - but it will cost money that the "other party" isn't going to approve.

He did put the lid on dispenseries in California ---- after letting it get out of control here, and probably doing a poll of likely voter issues in an election year. Not enough to get my vote.

Near term - greek settlement likely to sustain rally. Medium term - expired tax cuts not likely to be extended past 2013 due to debt issues. But no one cares right now. When in doubt, stick your head in the sand and print more money.
 
Re: why?

amoeba said:
Why? You think our toking POTUS is going to let fly with a "home loan terms for clunkers (the ones that don't pay their original loan terms)" program?

I know he'd like to - but it will cost money that the "other party" isn't going to approve.

He did put the lid on dispenseries in California ---- after letting it get out of control here, and probably doing a poll of likely voter issues in an election year. Not enough to get my vote.

Near term - greek settlement likely to sustain rally. Medium term - expired tax cuts not likely to be extended past 2013 due to debt issues. But no one cares right now. When in doubt, stick your head in the sand and print more money.
Click to expand...

Amoeba,

The market is 'discounting' the election. The market expects the current 'Occupy White House' incumbant to lose the election. If you are concerned about which politician is going to be el Presidente than be in the market now and get out before the media starts running oddball polls that present the data the way they want it. Those should start comming out later this month...
 
pausing at 0.6% return

Nothing to gloat about:

But the low volume, news-driven, one-day rally after a 2-day drop, seems like a no-brainer profit-taker to me; and 42 of 43 recent IFT's on our tracker seem to agree.

I have another IFT this month to pick a re-entry. I sure wish I would have left my F-fund in there, but the drop in price was after the noon deadline. The few shifting to the C-fund maybe thinking the AAPL effect (down late this week) could reverse. Perhaps, or not.

Oh well; I'm thinking I will still net somewhat of a gain - I am guessing 0.6% up for the year. yay.
 
Re: pausing at 0.6% return

amoeba said:
Nothing to gloat about:

But the low volume, news-driven, one-day rally after a 2-day drop, seems like a no-brainer profit-taker to me; and 42 of 43 recent IFT's on our tracker seem to agree.

I have another IFT this month to pick a re-entry. I sure wish I would have left my F-fund in there, but the drop in price was after the noon deadline. The few shifting to the C-fund maybe thinking the AAPL effect (down late this week) could reverse. Perhaps, or not.

Oh well; I'm thinking I will still net somewhat of a gain - I am guessing 0.6% up for the year. yay.
Click to expand...

Amoeba,

The average S&P Annual Return for 2007 through 2011 is: 2.45%
The average S&P Annualized CAGR for 2007 through 2011 is: -0.27%
There was, obviously, a big variance (risk): 21.66%

Thus, if you invested everything you had just before the crash and kept it in you made almost 2.5% on your money. The CAGR applies some mathy stuff to try to take in account the value of sustained contributions - and, is thus usually about 2% lower.

The above seem to incorporate dividend reinvestment.

Not great returns, but possitive returns. And those returns include the massive dump in 2008/09 (and does not include any of this years gains). In that time the Annualized Average Return of the 'G Fund' was: 3.37%. The return of the 'G Fund' isn't trending in a good direction - and it is designed to be maybe a point above actual inflation.

The ten year return (Jan 2002 - Dec 2011) of the 'C Fund' is a bit over 5%, that of the 'G Fund' is a bit less than 4%. That includes most of the .com bust and all of the 'Great Recession' crash.

Just interesting.
 
To IFT or not to IFT, tough call: 2-21-12

Title says it:

I'm back in trader's block mode; F reversing; CSI holding and closing lower but just barely; will there be a second consecutive surprise in job claims?

I doubt it.

Oil pressing 105/bbl, in February, mostly on Iran - not supply, concerns.

Not sure what to make of all this. Market seems more than a bit rich, but that doesn't mean it couldn't get richer.

Even though VIX is up today; it's been trending lower (below 20, 50, 200 EMA's) since December and still is.

The few replies on my increasingly irrelevant account talk, suggest that the major support for equities is that there isn't anywhere else to put your money.....that is.....until equities start going down again.

My last prediction was for a down week. Surprised it's holding where it is, quite honestly.
 
Re: To IFT or not to IFT, tough call: 2-21-12

amoeba said:
Title says it:

I'm back in trader's block mode; F reversing; CSI holding and closing lower but just barely; will there be a second consecutive surprise in job claims?

I doubt it.

Oil pressing 105/bbl, in February, mostly on Iran - not supply, concerns.

Not sure what to make of all this. Market seems more than a bit rich, but that doesn't mean it couldn't get richer.

Even though VIX is up today; it's been trending lower (below 20, 50, 200 EMA's) since December and still is.

The few replies on my increasingly irrelevant account talk, suggest that the major support for equities is that there isn't anywhere else to put your money.....that is.....until equities start going down again.

My last prediction was for a down week. Surprised it's holding where it is, quite honestly.
Click to expand...

Irrelevant!?!?:mad: You are full of crap on that one! You are still on my "short list" of must goto threads! Keep posting so we can find you amongst this deluge of threads!
 
Re: To IFT or not to IFT, tough call: 2-21-12

"You have to realize that delusions are widespread, everywhere I look I see self delusion, people get themselves into a state of mind on a particular market or trend and then for some reason remain perpetually fixated on it." Please see Dow stock market trend graph forecast for 2012.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article33237.html
 
end-of-month strategies

Musings on what to do with an IFT for those like me who have one left:

1. nothing

2. I-fund, fair value trade opp if there is one, then back to G before end of month (EOM)

3. F-fund, could there be a short term rotation, then back to G before EOM

4. S-fund, buy into a significant gap at daily open (>1%), carryover into March

I'm still puzzled by the muted reactions to larger issues (domestic debt, Europe, Oil), and don't have much idea how the job numbers will pattern in the next few months. Home prices continue to slide year-year (especially locally, in California, it's something like another -10%), although sales are slightly up and inventories down (not counting shadow). Both likely candidates are going to have their issues (yObama - Mr. handout/print money; Mitt - Mr. give to rich, nothing to poor).
 
Re: end-of-month strategies

The poor like me make extra good money for not working 40 hours when the earned income tax credit pays top dollar. Please keep the liberal generosity coming.
 
Re: end-of-month strategies

amoeba said:
Musings on what to do with an IFT for those like me who have one left:

1. nothing

2. I-fund, fair value trade opp if there is one, then back to G before end of month (EOM)

3. F-fund, could there be a short term rotation, then back to G before EOM

4. S-fund, buy into a significant gap at daily open (>1%), carryover into March

I'm still puzzled by the muted reactions to larger issues (domestic debt, Europe, Oil), and don't have much idea how the job numbers will pattern in the next few months. Home prices continue to slide year-year (especially locally, in California, it's something like another -10%), although sales are slightly up and inventories down (not counting shadow). Both likely candidates are going to have their issues (yObama - Mr. handout/print money; Mitt - Mr. give to rich, nothing to poor).
Click to expand...

I picked door #3, and we'll see how the share prices end up; which is sometimes funky with F-fund. I'll be back with something else in March.
 
March strategies

I am frothing at 0.7%, hoping to break into the top 700 of the tracker soon:

-a super tuesday confirmation of Mitt, together with his current poll preference head to head with BO, may translate into a bounce wednesday morning.

-non-farms number on thursday "could" be important if it deviates more than +/- 40,000 of the forecast 250K. I personally thing it will be on target, which should keep stocks from dropping much this month.

wait and see right now for me, I noticed the tracker is starting to show a few more G/F sideliners in the top 30.
 
3/5/12 - buying into the close

lower volume, modest rise in VIX, but last hour is shaping up into a buy into the close. Hard to get a read; could be speculation on a beats on the job number (thursday). S-fund cracked below it's 20 EMA last session. 50 EMA generally holds on a first break of the 20 EMA after the golden cross, which this is, and even if 50 EMA cracks - it could go higher. So perhaps an opportunity in there soon?
 
all bets off - - - - -

Unless something changes before Thursday:

Looks like Greek bondholders do not have 75% approval for the deal cut. Something is up for the pullback to begin this early. I was expecting a pullback even with approval, so all bets off. My recommendation - in a word - sell.

And one other word - now.

I am NOT expecting late day buying on this one.
 
post super tuesday deadcat?

rumors abound:

most of them, especially from bondholders supporting the greek package, are that enough of the holdouts will go along....will they? I dunno. Holdouts might also hold shorts on, well, I-fund indices, like the EFA, for example, which would collapse 5-10% on any announcement of failure. We will NOT know for sure....until after our market opens thursday morning.

That said, today's deadcat suggests that the concern (about Greek default) is minimal; there isn't even a hint at what the Friday jobs number will, actually, be....and.....the market doesn't always react in sync with the jobs report. I remember several instances, last year, when lousy jobs reports were bought into, and fair reports were sold. In the current situation, the market's been on a run....and a correction, for any cause or combination thereof, is overdue.

My mark for a buy on the S-fund (675) was not breached yesterday....so I'm holding out. I am looking at 110.3 or below on the F-fund for a buy there. As I write (2 pm EDT), there appears to be some late day buying into everything....so there may be some more recent rumors.

Our tracker shows most of the recent IFT's for today bailing on the bounce; look for entry points at or below the 50 EMA's (or, more conservatively, at least 2/3 up days (or better yet, 3/5) that recapture the 50 EMA following a breach below)
 
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