amoeba's Account Talk

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

Spanish Bonds??? Who cares... Why guess...

100% out of the market, 100% out of any risk, 2% gain for a year with 3.5% inflation. Yowser...

I am now 50% out of the market. And, again, missed the market timing thang - moved assets out of the C/S Funds when they were flat. But, the 50% that is in the market stands to make some gains today. Yup, it could lose money too!!! However, if the market dumps 36% (2008) in one day I stand to lose something less than 18%. And, it will take more than a day or a week to lose that 36%, eh. Very survivable. What is not survivable is making zip when the market grows by 10%.

Why be all in or all out when the market cannot decide. Why not let the market decide.

 

[amoeba]

Amoeba,

Spanish Bonds??? Who cares... Why guess...

100% out of the market, 100% out of any risk, 2% gain for a year with 3.5% inflation. Yowser...

I am now 50% out of the market. And, again, missed the market timing thang - moved assets out of the C/S Funds when they were flat. But, the 50% that is in the market stands to make some gains today. Yup, it could lose money too!!! However, if the market dumps 36% (2008) in one day I stand to lose something less than 18%. And, it will take more than a day or a week to lose that 36%, eh. Very survivable. What is not survivable is making zip when the market grows by 10%.

Why be all in or all out when the market cannot decide. Why not let the market decide.

Everyone cares about Europe, even if you and I don't.

Why? the market is still within 3% of a 4 year high. Can it go any higher this year? I say no. Downside risk from europe, employment disappointment, and other factors in near term, too high. Market can bite me.

 

[Boghie]

Amoeba,

Wait till the summer dump and then put a foot in the water. Being out of the market has hurt you far more than you would ever imagine. Earning inflation returns means your assets have had no chance to grow. Hopefully you have contributed massively during and after the 2008 crash. 'Investing' in the 'G Fund' will net you a second fully taxable Social Security check and make a large chunk of your actual Social Security taxable. Yowser.

Also, just sitting in the 'C Fund' returns 2% more than the S&P500 - because of dividend reinvestment. That 2% and the extremely low fees is a huge advantage that one must take. I didn't know about it till last year when I came up about even with the S&P but 2% less than the 'C Fund'. That 2% is a huge benefit for retirement. Investing in the 'C Fund' will mean you don't even need a Social Security check. Or, a pension check for that matter.

Finally, I think you are good enough to have not taken the full lumps in the 2001 and 2008 markets. You might have in 2001, but that was a lesson leaned. Imagine posting some of the gains from 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, and this year. Just some of them. Maybe half of the 'C Fund'.

 

[amoeba]

Amoeba,

Wait till the summer dump and then put a foot in the water. Being out of the market has hurt you far more than you would ever imagine. Earning inflation returns means your assets have had no chance to grow. Hopefully you have contributed massively during and after the 2008 crash. 'Investing' in the 'G Fund' will net you a second fully taxable Social Security check and make a large chunk of your actual Social Security taxable. Yowser.

Also, just sitting in the 'C Fund' returns 2% more than the S&P500 - because of dividend reinvestment. That 2% and the extremely low fees is a huge advantage that one must take. I didn't know about it till last year when I came up about even with the S&P but 2% less than the 'C Fund'. That 2% is a huge benefit for retirement. Investing in the 'C Fund' will mean you don't even need a Social Security check. Or, a pension check for that matter.

Finally, I think you are good enough to have not taken the full lumps in the 2001 and 2008 markets. You might have in 2001, but that was a lesson leaned. Imagine posting some of the gains from 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2010, and this year. Just some of them. Maybe half of the 'C Fund'.

All that said, still doesn't justify putting any money in, at 3% below a 4 year high. That's just plain stupid. I didn't lose any money 2001 or 2008 (I almost did, in 2001, but pulled out at a 1,250 level that wasn't seen again for 5 years).

Interest rates need to go up...a good bit of what investment there is in a phony market is there bcz of what you say.....no where else to put it. Well, except bonds. But you don't like them neither.

I was surprised at the interest in the Spanish bonds this wk. I may sit this month out......the year is not over.

 

[amoeba]

The highs for 2012 has already been put in, but the lows have not....

So where are those lows?

I am revising the SPY downward, from ~1,275-1,330; to say; ~1,220 - 1,300. Patience will reward those who have it, unless you are waiting for any of the equity markets to go up, in which case you will be punished severely. This absolute low, I predict, will be in the 4th quarter - with an accumulation of disappointing job numbers, slowing growth in Asia, declining consumption in Europe, and a domestic housing crisis that has 4X as much shadow inventory as anybody thinks.

There could be some opportunities in this unwinding, as the market seems to have a hard time closing below technicals, say 1,360 in the SPY.

Oh - I also predict a different president; at least that I have a vote in.

 

[Boghie]

Re: The highs for 2012 has already been put in, but the lows have not....

So where are those lows?

I am revising the SPY downward, from ~1,275-1,330; to say; ~1,220 - 1,300. Patience will reward those who have it, unless you are waiting for any of the equity markets to go up, in which case you will be punished severely. This absolute low, I predict, will be in the 4th quarter - with an accumulation of disappointing job numbers, slowing growth in Asia, declining consumption in Europe, and a domestic housing crisis that has 4X as much shadow inventory as anybody thinks.

There could be some opportunities in this unwinding, as the market seems to have a hard time closing below technicals, say 1,360 in the SPY.

Oh - I also predict a different president; at least that I have a vote in.

Ouch...

 

[amoeba]

what's going on?

Subject question is hard to answer, since the market jumped in the face of a continuum of disappointing economic data, domestic GDP, job claims, and is holding against spanish debt downgrade. What's going on? That's a tough one........market sometimes goes into "denial".....and inflates far beyond reason; such as in 1999, and 2008; what have we learned from this?

a) "there's no where else to put my money".....that's true to a significant extent, but not an excuse to lose money. Artificially low interest rates are forcing money into risk assets.

b) "the government will bail anything out".....that's also true, started here in USA, and is spreading to Europe and elsewhere. This gives mentality that there is no risk, because the governments will step in and "do something" to keep economies ever growing/consuming.

c) people are buying IPADs and other stuff online (ala AMZN), so no matter what else happens, this somehow means the world economy is good. Sort of a "dot-com" mindset. We know how that played out.....huge P/E multiples.....of 30 or more.....followed by drops to below 12 or so in shorter order.


I think this will be a more volatile year than most people think. Time will tell.

 

[amoeba]

low volatility for alot of lame news

Now I surely am clueless - that was one lame ADP number - and not much happened, what ~1-1.5% down is all?:

If tomorrow's job report surprises, then it could be a whopper gain - probably 2-3% - OTOH, if not, my guess there will still be that hard bottom ~1370 or so in the SPY - that nobody wants to sell into and everyone buys no matter what. The S-fund price has flopped around since early February.

Sentiment tracker aside - smells like alot of bull out there.

 

[amoeba]

Re: low volatility for alot of lame news

If tomorrow's job report surprises, then it could be a whopper gain - probably 2-3% - OTOH, if not, my guess there will still be that hard bottom ~1370 or so in the SPY - that nobody wants to sell into and everyone buys no matter what.

Did I just say that? And not buy into the job number? Yes and Yes. And I'll tell you why.....that was a confirming disappointment and, as a result, the gap at the open and noon EDT interfund transfer deadline were inflated, and the volume was at best average.

What does this mean? Still too bullish. No conviction selling. Too many hopers out there. The european bond prices are holding for reasons unbeknownst to me. Starting to look like a triple top in the S-fund.

I'm going to stick to my buy targets - which in the past were too low......and never met. Somewhere in the 1,220 to 1,300 range in the SPY. Around 650 or so in the S-fund. I could goof on this one - it could turn next week up to 1,420 - but I don't think so. Instead, I think monday will be a reality check, and finally crack all of the 50 EMA's with emphasis. And from there - it's the go away scenario.

On the shoulda-woulda-coulda side, the last 3 years of buy Nov-April, and sell May-Oct, in the S-fund would have yielded something like a 35% annual return.

 

[amoeba]

crystal ball clearing up - lookie here (from 3 weeks ago)

Everyone cares about Europe, even if you and I don't.

Why? the market is still within 3% of a 4 year high. Can it go any higher this year? I say no. Downside risk from europe, employment disappointment, and other factors in near term, too high. Market can bite me.

Hmmm. This was my sentiment back on 4/17/12. Now, we're moving beyond 4 consecutive days of lower lows in the SPY. Decline seems to be slow-motion; intermediate VIX and rising (but not high) volume; suggests this move has more to go (no C-word yet).

Patience and Wisdom to all. I've avoided a spanking by sticking to my targets, so far.

 

[Handballer]

Re: crystal ball clearing up - lookie here (from 3 weeks ago)

Hmmm. This was my sentiment back on 4/17/12. Now, we're moving beyond 4 consecutive days of lower lows in the SPY. Decline seems to be slow-motion; intermediate VIX and rising (but not high) volume; suggests this move has more to go (no C-word yet).

Patience and Wisdom to all. I've avoided a spanking by sticking to my targets, so far.[/QUOTE]

And you have done well. Your future looks good.

 

[amoeba]

Flat as a pancake......another lower intraday low in the SPY (#5 in a row?)......cannot vary from targets (yet).

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Flat as a pancake......another lower intraday low in the SPY (#5 in a row?)......cannot vary from targets (yet).

How many more times can Big Ben save us? Has he reached his credit limit (QE2.5 ends in June? July?) ?

 

[amoeba]

How many more times can Big Ben save us? Has he reached his credit limit (QE2.5 ends in June? July?) ?

I say BB won't bother anytime soon with declining unemployment and low inflation albeit no great shakes. Boat isn't sinking, just stock prices and even there it isn't much. You're talking ~5-6% reversal now, won't be more than another 5% by mid June. Perhaps mid 1,200's or so in the SPY. Bothersome if you hung on when you knew it was coming; but judging from the leader of our tracker, that's not what's happening.

Typical sell and go away pattern of the last 3 yrs. No bigE. It's whether those who went away come back in the 4th quarter.

 

[amoeba]

Re: The highs for 2012 has already been put in, but the lows have not....

So where are those lows?

I am revising the SPY downward, from ~1,275-1,330; to say; ~1,220 - 1,300. Patience will reward those who have it, unless you are waiting for any of the equity markets to go up, in which case you will be punished severely. This absolute low, I predict, will be in the 4th quarter - with an accumulation of disappointing job numbers, slowing growth in Asia, declining consumption in Europe, and a domestic housing crisis that has 4X as much shadow inventory as anybody thinks.

There could be some opportunities in this unwinding, as the market seems to have a hard time closing below technicals, say 1,360 in the SPY.

Oh - I also predict a different president; at least that I have a vote in.

Right again wasnt I? Above was posted 4/23/12, with the SPY ~1365, peaking up to 1405 on 5/1/12, and here we are now (1,325), 2 weeks later (5/16/12). STILL not a buy - no way - not yet -but getting there. This sort of slow unwinding is hardly ever followed by a deadcat bounce....there has to be something "real" underlying the reversal.

Bottom fishers no doubt have there eyes on the 200 EMAs and the markets are almost there (~1312 in the SPY, 667 in the S-fund). Volumes and volatility are increasing but not sharply. What is most bothersome is the measured, controlled, and conservative steadiness of this decline.. I'd like to see some conviction selling, some true panic, I mean 300 million SPY shares. Thump AAPL below 500 bux. Wholesale, unadulterated silly-ness, as the birchbarked one calls it. Push that P/E under 10. Throw everything out, the babies, the garbage, the piano, out the window, onto the street, during rush hour. Give me a reason to go all in.

 

[bigpappap]

Re: The highs for 2012 has already been put in, but the lows have not....

Don't think we will get that P/E under 10....I jumped back in starting tomm....been G/F since mid-March. Hope we get a nice rebound with all those Facebook IPO purchases!!!

 

[Boghie]

Re: The highs for 2012 has already been put in, but the lows have not....

Waiting for another 2008, or maybe just a standard correction?
You will not get panic selling without a panic.

If you are correct I can guarantee at least half of the initial growth with a YTOD baseline of +5% - and then migrate fully into equities as conditions permit. Should be yummy, very yummy...

Hope you are right!!!

 

[alevin]

Re: The highs for 2012 has already been put in, but the lows have not....

Waiting for another 2008, or maybe just a standard correction?
You will not get panic selling without a panic.

If you are correct I can guarantee at least half of the initial growth with a YTOD baseline of +5% - and then migrate fully into equities as conditions permit. Should be yummy, very yummy...

Hope you are right!!!

Without the panic flush, this market can just keep drifting down, you know? doesn't have to be hard selling to create a bottom, just lack of buying. crashes generally start when a market's tracking down already (conventional wisdom).

 

[Birchtree]

Re: The highs for 2012 has already been put in, but the lows have not....

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article34707.html

Here is your confirmation.

 

[amoeba]

volume rising, but not sustained; vix moderate - remember the alamo (last sept-oct)

Before anyone get's real excited about buying:
look at the volume/volatility for 9/16-10/30, 2011, during the last bottoming session; and the situation was similar as it concerns europe (if not worse now).

320 million SPY, sure. but that's one day. and the vix is ~ 25; with the 20 crossing the 50 EMA.

Last time that happened, it wasn't an instantaneous V-shaped bottom (those V's CAN happen, as was the case on the tsunami sell, but this - I believe - ain't that).....and took some time to shake out.

TSP-wise - if you saved your IFT's like me, you could average in on the end of may- early june.

OR - you could wait......